Hurricane Harbor: Fred Did Havana... Ran Out of Land & May Reform in the GOM. Grace Moving Too Fast ... Tracing Fred's Track (re: Models) The Problem with Models. And, 96L Does Anyone Care ?

This is the state of the tropics.

Invest 96L no one is talking about.

Relay race with Fred and Grace.

Fred is dead and trying to come back to life.

But we are going with the name Fred.

Grace is moving so fast it's hurting her strength.

Slow down girl you move too fast....

...got to make the morning last.

Widening our view of the world.

Haiti had a 7.2 earthquake.

It seems that latitude is actively busy be it tropical weather or earthquakes. You can't really make this stuff up. Add to it the models were so off on Fred that while the NHC had the whole, entire state of Florida in the cone it is now possible that the reborn Fred will make landfall in Mobile Bay. While models change often from run to run it's now possible that Fred totally refuses to go to Florida at all!

So when people ask why I'm not so into models.

This is why.

It's a perfect example.

I look at the models but I know they change.

I have been doing this a long time, I studied meteorology in college with no interest in a career but out of a love for weather and most things relating to Earth Science and I have been mentored by some of the best meteorologists around over time. Weak storms with barely a pulse go West with the prevailing winds and are not vertically stacked enough in the atmosphere to feel the pull of fronts that are over rated by models. It always bugged me the forecast for Fred, because as much as I looked at the models when I looked at the actual synoptics they did not match up, align or compute in any way. And it was apparent Fred always leaned to the left and had a barely there structure vertically so why would it feel the front (that didn't seem to be diving) and pull up into Florida be it Miami or Tampa?

There's times you use the models and there's times you pull back and wait to see it play out. Fred did Cuba as I said I thought he might and he actually did the length of Cuba, not leaving until he'd been to Havana. This is a total fail for the models but it's not their fault because if you put crappy data in you get crappy data out and that's the reality. Hispaniola as an island did not "do Fred in" it put a crick in it's neck and made it catch it's breath and kept on chugging West. Fred did Fred in as Fred was never much of a storm except for about 12 hours when it seemed to have come together. It still is possible Fred will come together in the Gulf of Mexico and put on a show there but I'm not holding my breath.

It's pouring in the video.
hard to see but sudden shower.

Sparklers in the rain!

Shavuah Tov means Good Week!

No Florida did not get tropical weather but they did get tropical rain which is the same thing but with a little less wind, many of our thunderstorms have stronger winds than Fred. My son Levi put this up on Instagram and well it made me smile and feel as if I did something right. When God gives you rain let the kids run around in their bathing suits lighting up old Sparklers and that's what they will remember from Fred. Not all storms are so much fun to play in the rain as it tries to reform to it's South after doing Cuba. Hopefully Miami doesn't get any real storms this year, let them go somewhere else!

Want some more models?

Here's the models for Grace.

All over the place.