UPDATED 5 PM - Behemoth Barry Strengthening Moving Towards Landfall.- Not Your Momma's Tropical Storm .... BUT Carrying With It Much Wicked Weather. Flooding Tornadoes. Invest 93L The Start of the African Wave Train.
I know doesn't look like what you are used to.
It is what it is and it's a mass of dangerous weather.
Giving the facts first.
My thoughts at the end.
But remember most people die from water..
From flooding.
Or trees that fall on their homes.
In this sort of big, wet storm.
Incredible link ... please use it.
Barry on radar.....
Cone
Barry Spinning.
Hi. the story is like this and it's plain and simple. Barry is moving slowly towards landfall and interaction with land (two different things) and his weather system associated with him will create many dangerous, dramatic situations. Landfall is just a point of reference for the record books. With a system such as Barry it means nothing as the storm is everywhere and there is no real CORE there just a point that the NHC has decided is the "center" and to be honest Barry is beginning to look Tropical but he really was more of a subtropical or extratropical storm .... the kind you would call a Super Storm if it was the winter time. It was a vortex that came down from Nebraska, tracked into Tennessee and we tediously followed it all the way to Splash Down in the Gulf of Mexico. It never has looked or acted truly tropical until today and that was forecast by the models.
Barry has fought off killer shear that appeared even when models forecast light shear. Barry fought off killer dry air better than Florence did and kept going. Barry found a way to survive. When you have that sort of storm they usually end up doing memorable damage. Due to flooding potential in New Orleans, the bayous and up in the hill country (note elevation creates flash floods) people may die. Due to tornadoes that will pop up in bands that once Barry crosses the finish line onto land will show up beautiful on radar (most likely) and big, huge pine trees and such will come down onto little structures and people in those structures could die. Power will go out and people will suffer in hot, horrible weather. Barry could become a big political issue even ... yes there is global warming... no Barry is not really because of global warming. Barry is an oddity and oddities happen across history. See Earl from 1998 that ended up a Cat 2 and killed people far from landfall.
It doesn't matter if Barry becomes a Hurricane (except for the record books) because a strong Tropical Storm or a weak Hurricane ... it will be the same misery. That simple.
Jim Williams did a good update earlier today. I suggest you listen. He's a good friend of mine and a wise man. I have taken his advice on issues not even meteorological but he knows hurricanes.
Mike will be on and off Facebook Live so check for his updates. He's awesome.
A lady watching his Facebook Live this morning said something that resonated. She said his voice is calming and when he talks she feels calmer. This is the age we live in and it's funny years ago people went on TV but today people go on Facebook Live or YouTube and follow meteorologists or storm trackers who know their stuff and they listen for hours. Mike has a great voice, I know trust me, and it does make you feel better, calmer to have him explain this behemoth of a storm that scares many people who fear deep down this is the 2nd coming of Katrina. It is not Katrina. Hopefully the levees will not fail. It is Barry. Mike is Mike and he is great at explaining, educating and yes God Bless him at times entertaining us and Lord knows if there is ever a time we need to breathe, laugh and chuckle a hurricane season is that time of year.
Pay attention to the NHC that is the bottom line and hope and pray that all the hype and concern was just that and Barry goes poof in the tropical wind but hey there's a whole lot of Barry and that moisture, that weather has to go somewhere.
Do NOT Treat Barry as your Momma's hurricane. It is it's own beast. We will study it for years to come trust me. If you want a play by play of what most likely will happen please follow Cranky online and be glad he posts because he knows the theory and dynamics of weather. Anyone can post a model but he is one of those few that can explain what is going on and why the model is right or wrong. He creates the best maps ever and y'all know how much I love maps.
End Game:
Find his Tweets or blog and follow the earlier tweets.
As for me I'll be offline until after sundown Saturday evening.
I keep what is called the Jewish Sabbath.
Old timers know that.
I'm off from Sundown Friday night til Saturday Night.
So you know where to go for info.
The blog before this one has oodles of links.
Loops to loop.
Follow the story online, on air or wherever you do.
Thank you very much for your patience.
I had a crazy day with several people who had issues.
Issues that demanded help.
I helped them.
I'm really good at before the storm forms.
Where the storm may go.
Reading the water vapor loop.
Understanding hurricane history.
Now in truth we just need to watch Barry do his thing.
Hope and pray that people prepared properly.
Thank the Cajun Navy and those others ....
.....who do swift water rescues.
Pray people do not drive down flooded roads.
Pray people do not go around barriers.
Many deaths in Florence were people who survived Flo...
..... then drove around barriers and died.
I'll be back Saturday Night.
Keep reading below please.
Because I gave details this morning.
Those details are the same.
Only thing that may change is..
Barry may get an extra five or ten mph winds.
Many of those winds are far from the center.
Weather is behind the center.
Barry is a storm to study for years to come.
From earlier today.
Discussion still applicable.
PS Sorry for any typos.
I type very fast and time doesn't allow editing this.
Thank you so much for your patience.
And talk online Saturday Night....
Definitely beginning to look like a Tropical Storm.
Remember it was forecast to amp up before landfall.
That's why hurricane strength has been talked about.
Let's look at discussion.
Note when the NHC mentions "ERRATIC" ...
...they are often doing foreshadowing.
Leaving the door to change the next package.
The 5 PM should be very interesting.
Even the 2 PM should have more info.
They talk on the "center" looking S of actual center.
Things may change but for now it is what it is...
Moving slowly at 5 MPH WNW
Over warm water.
Despite shear and dry air...
...despite poor form.
Barry finds ways to survive and thrive.
That is a problem.
See discussion below from NHC
Mike was actually live with the info before the TWC
TWC has a lot of commercials.
Mike has sponsors and Mike talks nonstop....
Gives good info.
Watches and warnings.
Shows why Barry has almost been stalled.
Stuck between 2 strong High Pressures Zones.
Now close in something is going on...
Yet is that where the center is?
A new center?
or just a strong thunderstorm?
Keep watching it's a story unfolding in real time.
Live.
Current Cone ... interactive.
Use it especially if you live up in Memphis for example.
I'll update this afternoon.
After we see what happens with the new strong cells..
...after we see what Recon finds.
After the 2 PM update.
Stay tuned... keep reading from this morning.
ALL IMPT INFO
Especially about a slow moving storm.
Flooding.
Tornadoes INLAND..
Power Outages
Possibly Hurricane Barry ...
The image above is from the link above.
I show it because you can use it if you live up near Memphis...
Or Jackson to see if the track is closer to you.
You can pretty much go down to street level to see where your street.
Why this is important is because this will have inland threats.
Barry is an odd shaped system filled with multiple types of weather.
We are not looking at a tightly would cyclone.
From flooding to tornadoes ... Barry will move inland eventually.
So remember it's not all about New Orleans or Louisiana.
Mississippi juts out to the West into Louisiana.
Think of them as one parcel of land in ways.
Earthnull shows the real center.
Hard to make out on satellite imagery.
Satellite Imagery below.
It's not your Momma's Tropical Storm.
But it will bring danger and destruction in various ways.
Follow your local warnings.
Barry in motion below.
https://spaghettimodels.com/ has a plethora of Barry links up.
Now let's talk about the facts from the NHC
My thoughts below are in parenthesis ... to be clear.
I've quoted from their discussion in places.
Official Cone shown above.
Not much has really changed.
Moving WNW now is the big change.
WNW 5 MPH
Winds 50 MPH
(They have admitted in their discussion below....
...it's not your typical cyclone)
"Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone"
(we noticed that.......)
"system is devoid of an inner convective core"
(Eastern Semicircle has tropical storm force winds....
Recon will be in the plane all day basically.)
(A reminder below Barry is moving over very warm water.
Barry can still strengthen.
Many models show it strengthening....
but there's northerly shear and dry air)
"broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly"
(again 5 MPH forward speed is forecast remember that)
"average motion of the several swirls rotating around....
... a larger circulation"
(again not your Momma's Tropical Storm)
(Their previous forecast package basically verified)
WATCHES AND WARNINGS BELOW
There isn't much more to discuss currently.
Bottom Line...
There is much weather down there.
There will be strong winds.
Some models show it can ramp up before landfall.
Weather is in copious amounts FAR from the center.
Or the "mean center" with swirls rotating around it.
Mother Nature is dragging that whole mess of weather ...
...up towards land at some point of time soon.
(many think timing is very off but let's go with the forecast)
We can watch in real time and receive real time warnings.
Know far, far upstream when Barry makes it back to Land..
Remember it began over land.......
.......it never was your Momma's Tropical Storm.
Even back when it started as a yellow X over Tennessee.
Far upland, inland.... there will be flooding rains.
There is a STRONG threat of TORNADOES.
Every crappy looking TS like this produced Twisters.
Misery.
The River may overflow.
Again Louisiana is a land with many rivers.
This will be a mess.
That's a lot of weather vaguely associated with Barry.
Florida is getting drenched.
Barry ups the chances of weather far from the...
"mean center" broad area of ..swirly, etc.
Again the weather over S FL is not Barry.
But weather is very connected.
Again....... colorful view.
Everything flows in and out of atmospheric rivers.
And Big, BEHEMOTH BARRY....
...is creating issues.
I've been told Barry will move fast.
Once it moves.
I don't believe that.
But please Dear God prove me wrong.
Link to image below that you can loop and play with a bit.
High pressure to it's North ...for now.
That's why it's moving so slowly.
Far to it's ESE is our Invest 93L
It swirls if you notice.
It is out there.
Not expected to survive.
Fun to watch isn't it.
Doesn't have a name.
Currently at 20% while they deal with big Barry.
Note the wave ahead of it is nearing the Islands.
Hmnnn.
Has a better shape than Barry.
But Barry has all that weather.
A wider view.
The theme song for Invest 93L
And all the Tropical Waves is obvious.
Sorry first thought that came to mind.
True though but they are not promising a kiss for love and...
...they are promising tropical misery.
So prepare.
I will update later today.
Really not much to say.
It is what it is....
It....will bring troubled weather.
I can't wait to hear what Mike has to say on this :)
Be back later....
Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me @BobbiStorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Way faster real time discussion... if Twitter is up today..
Ps... no there ain't no reasoning with Hurricane Season.
But you can prepare so do so...
More is on the way.
Hurricanes with Eyes that have concentric circles.
And much more dangerous hurricane like weather.
Which one is booking tickets to visit your city?
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:47 AM
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