Hurricane Harbor: Updated...TS Philippe Does Florida Afterall... Heading North Towards Florida .. Crossing Cuba... Into Bahamas.. Whole US Coast from NC to NE Needs to Watch It Carefully

11 PM

Estimated arrival of winds.

Shows Cuba and Key West.

Key West has no warnings.

Wind History below....

Um... Key West in it.

Sure looks like they have warnings.

Nope they don't.

Totally inconsistent.

Luckily it's a weak TS

Maybe no one noticed.

We are headed towards the year 2020... next year it will be 2018. Yet we are locked into parameters set back decades ago when it comes to forecasting by the US Government. Many of the best, brightest meteorology students are going into private meteorology; it pays better and there is more they can do. Why could they not simply put out a statement warning of a storm with Tropical Storm force winds that was headed towards the Florida Keys and South Florida after passing over Cuba on it's way towards the Bahamas. Why could they not just say clearly "a large area with multiple vortexes with tropical storm-force winds in the overall weather package will be moving North Northeast into the Florida Keys and across Florida. The name of this storm will be Philippe and it will start out tropical but soon merge with the frontal boundary and lose it's tropical characteristics?"

Without having to name it Potential or discuss whether it's a Hybrid or go long on "absorption" as this is what happens all the time in October. And, it's common for a weak, forming TS to have multiple centers (people get that it's not a Hurricane) and not be afraid to put South Florida into a Tropical Storm Watch early on when it was apparent to almost every meteorologist I know that Philippe would impact Florida. You can hope it won't but forecasting is not about hoping it's about explaining what is...

I'll talk long on this another time. So posting this more for continuity sake and to be on record. The forecasters at the NHC are awesome, but they are operating with one hand behind their back and so many archaic rules that it seems no matter what they do they end up holding the wrong side of the cone.

Wind Probs for the rest of the storm as of 11 PM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/290240.shtml?

Thankfully I was out tonight at a friend's house celebrating his 50th birthday and enjoying random conversation with nice people and a few good friends. Nice to get out and not to obsess about the tropics and luckily that saved me from going crazy on Twitter complaining about how messed up this was... has been and probably will be as the storm moves North doing whatever it wants to do irregardless of forecasts, discussion or modeling.

October is a hard time to be right on the money. I wore thin leggings a long sleeve v neck and a short black lacy skirt. I left the sweater in the car "just in case" and sat out on the deck listening to music... sipping wine and hanging out. Cheesecake may have been involved while music played ... playing everything from Edith Pilaf to Buck Cherry. I've got interesting friends. The rain was originally forecast to start in the middle of the night (3am) then it was moved up to 1 AM... I knew it would rain by 11 PM. The timing has been wrong on this system and this was the prefrontal rain not the real forecast Sunday Rain.

It's raining heavy now... more a tropical rain than a cold front rain. It's beginning to snow up in the far mountains of West Virginia. My husband, an ex-skier, just made the comment whimsically "there'll be skiing for Thanksgiving" and that's how we progress in late October into November. Seems our minds are on winter while we watch tropical weather over Cuba with one of it's centers further to the North and while the NWS tries to play catch up on pin the head on the storm in the Mid Atlantic, Long Island and New England.

In Miami it's also raining.

There should be a rule for forecasting weak tropical storms in June and October.. the rule should be "there are no rules" just "tell it like it is" and prepare the public for what they will get.

Besos BobbiStor

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll update Sunday AM fresh with thoughts on Philippe "up the road" after it leaves Florida and the Bahamas. It's okay in Raleigh they can't forecast what sort of P Type (snow, sleet, etc) we will get in a winter storm 24 hours out ...not sure why we should expect more from a developing Tropical Storm with multiple centers merging with a Cold Front then transforming into a Weather Bomb with some sort of precipitation....

multiple vortexes with tropical storm-force winds in the overall weather package will be moving North Northeast into the Florida Keys and across Florida

Craig Key North....

Does not include Lower Keys.

Phillipe wants to do Fantasy Fest.

NHC says NO!

Note remnants of an old wave to the E of Philippe

Philippe.

Weather over Cuba.

Weather over Florida.

A center near Key West

The link to the discussion is below and it goes long in discussing why TS Philippe is actually moving North currently not NE as a previous discussion said it would... something about multiple centers and new vortex that formed close to Key West. Note it didn't "move" it formed... but they do expect it to move off to the NE rapidly at some point.

Salient part of discussion from NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282052.shtml

NWS Miami Discussion.

Let's go look at the National Weather Discussion out of Miami to see what they are saying. As obviously TS Philippe is getting way closer to the Miami then previous NHC discussion led many to believe. As I said on Friday depending on where and when Philippe developed things could change and were very fluid. Timing and Location of Formation = Trouble when trying to perfectly pinpoint an exact tract for a Tropical Storm that is moving 29 miles per hour forward speed.

Earlier in the week I posted an image from Larry Cosgrove and I reposted it on Friday as I was obviously pretty sure that his track pulling North moving towards the front was more logical than the discussion coming out of the NHC. The image is below from LAST WEEK. You can blend the two tracks (NHC earliest tracks) with the one above and get the best track scenario.

Bottom Line here with regard to TS Philippe and Miami is that it's going to be a rainy night with severe weather carrying with it the continued possibility of tornadoes. They have had tornado warnings throughout the day and everyone needs to be aware this will continue throughout the night. I'm not going to split hairs with the NHC discussion that isn't including the Lower Keys and KEY WEST but let me say this about that... ANYONE in Key West tonight should hunker down in Key West and enjoy Fantasy Fest. Stay around Duval Street... do NOT decide to drive back up to Miami tonight if you can stay there. It's just what it is...the weather along the WHOLE length of the Overseas Highway are going to be rancid IF you are there when a strong cell pushes through. Key West is a better place to be tonight than on the highway in the dark. Same goes for people in South Florida... a good night to stay close to home and enjoy the windy tropical weather before the next cold front pushes through.

http://www.fantasyfest.com/schedule/

Philippe should eventually get with the game plan and pull North East... after moving NNE and end up off the coast of Florida. Where energy will transfer to another Low Pressure area forming off the Carolinas (Outer Banks) and then it moves up towards NYC, Long Island and the NE. I will put out a long discussion tomorrow as to what I believe what will really happen.

It's important to note it is possible someone gets snow from the eventual winter storm most likely in mountainous areas but it depends on timing and how much "tropical moisture" from TS Philippe is wrapped into the approaching storm coming in from the South. So the jury is out on that one in my opinion currently. As a good example it's worth noting the strong weather South Florida and the Florida Keys have been getting all day when much discussion yesterday was on it crossing Cuba and heading NE into the Bahamas. That might have happened, however the new center "formed" and well it's best not to pay too much attention to the models in October and spend more time actually watching the storm itself in real time and staying two steps ahead of it.