Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Matthew Cat 4 After Cuba Into Bahamas Headed Towards US? Stay tuned... Euro spits out garbage on last run... GFS Stubborn on US Interaction. Watches and Warnings up.

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Matthew barely missing a beat between Haiti and Cuba

In Journalism classes we were taught from day one.
People want to know ...
Who, What, Where, When and Why.

So let's start with the "who" is Matthew shown above.

The "what" is the facts.
Currently still packing 140 MPH headed North.
A Category 4 Hurricane, slow moving.
It made landfall on tip of Haiti...
..and is currently headed towards the tip of Cuba.

"Where" is it going?

Note the watches and warnings are shown on this map.

It is forecast to then move through the Bahamas slowly.
As it approaches Florida it picks up speed.
The "when" is harder to say ...
Officially it is forecast to be near St. Augustine on Friday at 2 PM

How does it get there?
We aren't 100% sure.
I'm going with the most consistent model the GFS..
It may scrape along the Florida coast... 
Or it could make a brief landfall.
It could go straight up I95 like Julia.
Then it might make another landfall near SC or NC.
Most likely OBX if anyone was betting.
But models today got weird when the EURO burped.
It began drawing circles in the Atlantic.
So throwing that run out like bad fish...
We will stick with the general consensus.

That's the "Why" of this...
Models mostly trace the US coastline.
They disagree on timing.

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The High is still pushing West some..that's a WHY.
The front is moving from East to West at 7pm to 1pm orientation.
There's a squeeze play going on.
Really not many other places for Matthew to go.
But again that question of speed.

Remember when I kept showing the moisture near Florida?

The picture above is from the other day.
That's the way things were set up to go.
The trough off the East Coast filled with moisture.
Miami had record rainfall in some places the other day.
High pressure pushing East.
High pressure pushing West.
Matthew travels in between.
And possibly could join together with the front.
Or just ride the front.

Lastly this track copies Hurricane Hazel...
..but Hazel raced North with the frontal boundary.

So far it's as if Matthew is tracing that track.
See it's track so far on the NRL map below.

What happens next depends on Matthew not Hazel.
It depends on the cold front... 

Lastly everyone wants to know about shutters in SFL.

Not one size answer fits all.
IF you have shutters that are easy to put up.
Or say you push the button you can wait.
IF you have to get wood... it's a hard call.
You may need to get wood and it's gone like water.
So usually when you have a Hurricane Watch..
You prepare. 
You don't need shutters for a Tropical Storm.

I'll be back later with my own thoughts.
Based on air patterns, models and recent weather patterns.
I'd say the area along Melbourne to St. Augustine is most likely .. get a more direct hit from Matthew then other areas of Florida.
Much depends on what happens when Matthew leaves Cuba.
It has stayed a strong storm for a long time.
The water before Cuba and Florida is HOT.
It's a problem.
Shear from the front could keep in check.
Can't rule out South Florida seen more than a grazing hit.
IF you have to be on one side of a Hurricane...
...the SW side is the best to be on.
The least weather.

Stay tuned...
...back with more info in a little while.
I'll update at top.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Good to be back..

Ps.. yes Nicole out there as well as another area on the map.
Remember I kept showing other areas as well as Matthew.

How do you leave the FIJI on the shelf?
It's the first thing I grab.
Love Fiji Water 


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