Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, October 01, 2016

MAJOR MATTHEW CAT 4 Close to Cat 5 ... 150 MPH. Stationary. Read why...


Matthew anchored off N coast of South America.
Note how much moisture over South American there is...

Hasn't made the turn North yet.
Outperformed the models.
Category 5 storm Last Night
150 MPH Stationary 
Category 4 on verge of Cat 5...
Major Hurricane Matthew.

Short update now.
Longer update in a few hours.
Just getting back in touch.
Thanks for your patience.

Water Vapor tells the story.
Watch the dark high to NE of Matthew.
The moisture feed N of it saying 
"follow me" 
But the High is still pressing West.
And Matthew is anchored in place.
Also it has pulled West just enough...
...to be further up away from land.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)


Showing you this 12 hour loop as it shows the High well.
The High is still digging West above Matthew.
Until that high slows down or stops pushing.
Matthew has some Western component.
We can forecast a Northerly movement.
But that movement depends on the High.

The GFS sees the High being stronger.
The EURO sees it being weaker.
Many love the EURO but...
...so far the GFS has handled Matthew better.

12 hours ago:


It ends just N of PR

Currently:


It's protruded over mid Hispaniola
I cut this one a bit wider to show the edge..
...of dry air moving down across Florida.

But the moisture feed off the East Coast remains.


This is the area the GFS takes Matthew.
Just to East of FL
North up towards E NC
Mid Atlantic then towards Long Island and NE

The GFS is scary.
The EURO bends Matthew faster NE...
... after slicing thru Bahamas out to sea.

Now let's look at the Cone.
Cone not set in stone.


Reason the cone is wide on the 5th Day...
..is because 2 best models disagree widely.

Wind Probs for Florida


Note the areas with 50 and 64
More likely to feel wind from Matthew
Wind, rain, weather.

Carolinas 


Note around Georgetown SC the odds go up.
Everything else is 34

I put up the picture of Mitch on Friday.
I put it up because I believed Matthew would be a Cat 5.
Nothing more than a gut feeling and a lot of knowledge.
But it wouldn't be responsible to throw that out there.
Intensification yes I did say that.
I was hinting.. implying...

I showed Mitch because I believed Matthew ...
..would also go down in history as a Cat 5 in Carib.

That part of the Carib is prime real estate for major Canes.
In 1733 way back before the 1850 data.
A Hurricane formed near where Matthew did.
It moved NW towards Jamaica.
And slammed it back into history.
Took a while for it to recover.
Most of the island was in the NE quad.


Note I underlined the yellow for you to read.


Such a hit to Jamaica would be BAD.

A path to the East would be way better.

Stay tuned I'll update in a little bit.
Wanted to get this up fast.

And for everyone asking about Miami... SFL


NWS discussion.
Cannot rule out some impacts.
Expect some possible impacts as you're in the cone.
Prepare now if you can't later...
..don't panic but think what you may need.
Still far out but not a long shot.
Hopefully stays off shore

But this hurricane rarely does what it should.
Rapid Intensification last night an example..
..despite closeness to land and some mild shear.

So stay tuned.
Watch him spin.

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Hmm some bad data there... 
You get the idea...

Matthew is not moving.
I'll be back to explain my thoughts.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter










1 Comments:

At 9:56 PM, Blogger Mike doran said...

Matthew's blob and the van allen belt south american anomaly:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2016/30sep16/saa_strip.jpg

The area of the blob was decarbonated by Matthew ealier, and is subject to this high solar wind event and the van allen belt anomaly, and also proximate to a peninsula where the land/ocean contrast can act much like a 'wire' to the ocean--ocean impact by extreme river changes to the Orinoco river delta. It's a perfect set of electrical circumstances. Matthew again during the day when there was peak lightning over south america bombed to a cat 5, and then overnight weakened to a cat 4, then during peak lightning again today re intensified to a cat 5. The storm has stalled and the models have NO CLUE where it's going to move. Again its due to a complete failure to understand the electrical complexity and how decarbonation caused by surface lows organize these storms.

Solar winds continue to slow, become less dense and less energetic. And Matthew is bombing with a blob, too. I defy any of them. I think what the meteorological community has done missing electrics, the electrical aspect of CO2 in cloud microphysics, is practically criminal.

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/.../ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif

Mike Doran -- I am on facebook

 

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