A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, September 30, 2016
Cat 2 Matthew Trying to Become a Major Cat 3 Hurricane. 105 MPH, WSW & Barometer Dropping.. South American Coastal Resorts ABC Islands IN It NOW but... After Cuba Where Does Matthew Go? Models Trending West . . .
WSW at 14 MPH
That's a close up of #Matthew Strengthening.
Look how perfect the swirls are inside the center.
Category 2 Headed Towards Major Hurricane
Close to the Coast of South America
Yes the cone touches Miami Beach and WPB
Most of it is to the right.
But the trend has been towards the left .. West.
So watch carefully to see any changes in the 11 PM
At 11 PM there is a new cone.
Currently NHC forecasts a slow down in motion.
Let's see if that verifies...
I'll be back later with more model discussion.
After NHC gets more data evaluated from recon.
For example just now...
There was a 966 MB reading found after that advisory
Beauty in motion far to the South in the Caribbean.
(That was for my Florida friends... keep watching)
If you are didn't pay attention in Geography it's this close.
Forecast to bounce back to the North.
As Matthew did make the dip WSW
He may make the fast turn to the right.
Buy that model a prize huh?
Curacao Hurricane for Friday Night?
5 Day Cone from 5 AM
Understand Matthew came together fast.
Close in to land also in line with 2016 storms.
Earlier last night
Last night it sort of split in two.
Two big, huge purple blobs.
Then this morning it sucked in the new blob.
It is as if it fed off itself.
And even if #Matthew goes over #Cuba
#Haiti is going to get flooding rains.
Remember it's got that large, classic look.
NE Quadrant was always full.
When it makes that turn away from South America.
It's should bounce back and create a problem for Haiti..
...even if it moves directly over Cuba near Gitmo.
And Jamaica in the cross hairs.
How Haiti doesn't have problems from this is beyond me.
Some problems, but in Haiti a small problem can bring a huge death toll.
So you can all pray that doesn't happen.
Because Matthew may be a Mitch sort of Hurricane.
So huge and filled with tropical convection.
Latent heat in the tropics in October is never good.
See the outflow channel?
A real Caribbean Cane for now.
Much like the GOM..
..when a Cane is in the Caribbean someone gets it.
Parts of South America are getting some now.
And the confusing part is that Matthew doesn't seem to care.
Close in Matthew is intensifying and may end up Major Cane
In the Caribbean
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Will discuss the models later today.
I always believe the second run of models after Gulfstream Jet best.
And the trend is to the West for now.
But remember a Cat 3 can make it's own weather.
A Cat 3 is a whole different cane than a Cat 1 or 2
It can make it's own steering currents so stay tuned.
Yesterday I wrote about the models.
We will revisit them later this afternoon.
Yes it did make that dip so that part verified.
Will it pull North suddenly?
A piece of South America .. Venezuela actually juts out.
It's sort of a vacation resort down there.
Hope they are hunkered down.
Like their own Florida Keys in a weird way.
That's where Matthew is taking a Caribbean Vacation
How much interaction with land will affect Matthew?
If it doesn't and bounces back up into the warmest water of the Caribbean?
Check out www.spaghettimodels.com while I take a long shower.
Note those ocean water temperatures where Matthew is heading
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm