Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

97L Matthew.. It's the Models Making Meteorologists Crazy. FL? Eastern Seaboard? Keep Watching. Have Some Pumpkin Porter.. It's Fall! Play Ball!!

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North based system. 
Islands far to the North are getting strong winds and rain.
The South side shows weak on wind data.

The NHC cannot say it's Closed-ish.
Give time for it to all fall into place.
Both models do form this system and close it off.
If you believe models and in 2016 we do..

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But the models differ greatly.

From Spaghetti Models

Why is everyone obsessing over a wave that is just forming into a storm out in Atlantic?

Because the models take it across very warm water with optimal conditions to intensify down the road. Note I said the models forecast optimal conditions as that is a prediction that a computer program is making. If it misses one piece of important data the whole forecast is off. Sometimes they get the track right but miss the mark on intensity. Other times they are off on timing and because of that they are there too late to hit the front dipping down or the front is forecast to move too fast and in reality moves a bit slower. It's a very complex process taking into account a multitude of intangibles. The models also take in the history of other systems so they often spit out tracks that resonate with past events. On occasion they go crazy and look like a box of spaghetti that fell out of the box onto the kitchen floor.... thus the name Spaghetti Models.

Above is just one set of models.
Pretty signature there in yellow.
I noticed timing is different on the GFS and the EURO.
IF timing is so different they both can't be right.

Before I show this remember this is a long range prediction.
Don't buy too many lotto tickets... if you know what I mean.

Look at the date NOT the L just SE of Miami.
Saturday, October 08, 2016

Now let's look at the AFL model.. I mean GFS ;)

On Saturday, October 08, 2016 the Euro forecasts:

So the models show a similar track... has it SE of FL on Saturday 9/08/2016
The other model has it on it's way to Canada..
(after crushing the Eastern Seaboard...)

Note the GFS does have it just SE of Miami also.
On TUESDAY, October 4th, 2016

984 a huge, big wet storm hovered just N of Cuba


930 a huge, stronger hurricane just N of Cuba

Models show millibars not wind speed.
It is what it is...

Some take this to Jamaica
Some take this to GOM
Some take it into the Bahamas.
You're supposed to blend the ensemble...

This was last night but shows it perfectly.

Good way of putting it.
Short term this is the game plan...
... down the road everything in the playbook.

Now you can appreciate how hard it is to make a forecast.
So the NHC has to adjust, correlate, compare different models.
And these are the A Team models.

4 days apart at the same point.
140 mph winds +/- or strong Tropical Storm

That's a big disconnect.
Sometimes a model latches on to one part of a big storm.
And it's as if the other model latches on to another part.
It's a huge system weather wise.
Geography wise...

Same basic track by both models.
One shows a dangerous hurricane the other a strong TS?
At the same point in time?

That is not logical.
Easy to say one is right... 

Many unknowns down the tropical road.

One moves it along same speed.
The other moves it slow then speeds it up.

Hype is defined below:

We are not selling Peanut Butter Porter as the Beer of the Year.
We are not saying Peanut Butter Porter will cure your headaches.
We are not saying Pumpkin Pie Porter like I had last night..
..will give you energy to beat Red Bull.

There are no huge ads taken out in Times Square.
This is not the Presidential Debate of 2016.
This is a problem trying to compare two models.
And one of the best models shows a possible Major Hurricane.
A Major Hurricane moving up the East Coast.
So we tell people to watch the SYSTEM carefully.
If it follows that path and that model verifies..
Then begin to take it very seriously.
Stock up on hurricane supplies...
...if it misses eat them or donate them.
Make sure your asthma inhaler is full.
Maybe reorder a new one just in case.
Make sure your insurance is good...
...because as the storm gets closer you cannot buy it.
Not 10 days away, not 7 days away.
We are in the watch and wait time zone.

This is not HYPE this is living with the reality of Hurricane Season.
Another reality more often than not is:

The storm slides North just off shore Florida...
Aims at the Boardwalk in Myrtle Beach and OBX
Then re-curves just off shore out to sea....
Blows kisses and a nice breeze to Mike Seidel on Nags Head.
Jim gets some good coffee and local brews somewhere...
And the news crews pack it up and go home.
Or... they stay and cover the aftermath.

We can't tell you today what will happen a week away.
We can say talk options.

Into the Caribbean... near Florida moving Northish somewhere.
It turns faster and we pray it goes out to sea.
It falls apart from strong, sudden shear and after the fact..
... the NHC waxes poetic on decoupled centers
It begins to sound like a tropical Shakespearean tragedy.
Or it keeps coming at us...

Keep watching.
Watching a tropical system with dire forecast is not hype.
It's not crazy is practical and pragmatic.
But you know that every 12 hours models change often.
So a long range model and the EURO is long range...
... you go "yeah, okay let me see the next model run"
The Euro right now is much loved but it's LONG RANGE
Saturday a week from tomorrow off Florida.

The GFS that is often made fun of...
...has been right often this year.
The GFS says "not so fast, not so big"
Off Florida this coming Tuesday.

So take them one day at a time.
That's my advice today.
While recon flies loops in the system.
Trying to see just see how strong this system is..
As said this morning by the director of the NHC
They will be flying around in it for a long time today.

Stay tuned.
I'll update minor info at the top of the page with an UPDATE!
If something big changes I'll do a new post.
Or if I am in the mood I'll write.

As for the Pumpkin Porter I had last night...
This was the best.
High ABV at 8.6- smooth taste.
Not too spicy.

Something to think on for later in the month.
Or even next month.
NC is all about the seasons.
This is Hurricane Season still.
To remind you that is not hype it's responsible discussion.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Only Fall Colors you should be watching is the loop below.
That loop shows Matthew.
A slow forming Matthew.
Will it be a slow mover or a fast mover?

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