A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, September 25, 2016
UPDATED!! Invest 97L Forms in the Atlantic. Forecast to Head Towards the Caribbean... Then Models Differ. TS Matthew is Long Ways Off
NHC has probabilities up to 90%
Recon set to go in on Tuesday
I find it interesting it's North side is convecting.
Showing real signs of life as there is SAL present there.
Often with a set up like that waves are bottom heavy.
Roll beginning visible below:
Good graphic for where we should be day by day.
Certainty is far away still.
Keep reading if you haven't read already.
Or read it again...
Sweet Tropical Dreams .. Matt
Karl looks stronger than our new Invest.
Looks can be deceiving.
Karl is old and on it's way out to sea.
A minor flare up on the road to oblivion.
97L is young and coming to life.
I'm including discussion from the NHC on Karl
It deserves some credit.
Anomalously warm water allows storms far North to intensify.
Note the graphics up on www.spaghettimodels.com
You can see where Karl hit the anomaly perfectly.
As a closed low system it ventilated well
Intensification occurred far to the North.
I know you don't really care about Karl ...
...so we will move on to our new Invest 97L
Forecast to become Tropical Storm Matthew
97L now has a floater and is up on NRL.
97L is rolling fast.
Not such a slow mover it seems.
Some models pegged it as a slow mover.
So speed here seems of importance.
Long term things change.
But the here and now it's rolling fast.
Will that last?
It has a strong high to the North
Strong highs help propel wave West fast.
Snapshot from NRL
A mess of clouds.
Hard sometimes to catch a wave rolling fast at sea.
Megi in the Pacific looks like this:
Been a while since we saw that in the Atlantic.
So where is 97L going?
That's a big question.
Rob from www.crownweather.com posted this:
Excellent image as it shows the unknown possibilities.
He changes it daily, it's a paid subscription site.
I'm posting this, with his permission, to show..
How many unknowns there are in the long range.
It ends up anywhere in that shaded area.
And that's based on model projections.
The high is stronger it gets further West.
The front is stronger it pulls further North.
Are there any Upper Level Lows out there forming?
Does shear strengthen or dissipate?
I noticed TWC this morning waxed poetic on Bahamas.
Something about maybe the Bahamas should watch it.
What they didn't tell you was the models flipped last night.
If you read last night's post here you'll see I said I'm waiting on next run.
Note the orange in the Bahamas Rob put up YESTERDAY.
There are many possible outcums.
The last run of models show a trend to the East.
Shows it coming into Caribbean Low.
Then feeling the strength of the Trough
The edge of the High behind it.
Pulls North up over Hispaniola.
Another model shows a stronger, longer storm.
Stays further West, cuts up across Cuba
Slams into NW coast of Florida
(like several already this season)
As a stronger system than Colin or Hermine
GFS takes it across Jamaica, Cuba and the Florida Keys
On it's way towards West Coast of Florida
Blend Charley and Opal track.
Timing more like Opal early October.
Odd little lows out to the East but ignore that.
So that's one odd solution.
The above model called
Death Over Hispaniola
is the Euro.
Are model names important?
They are but two of the better models.
And they change in real time.
Until they stop flip flopping on destination.
We watch the wave and approaching cold fronts.
We watch the strength of the HIGH
All components in it's ultimate steering currents.
We watch them here:
We also watch the Pacific to see what is happening there:
The orientation of the fronts that will move East.
And for other nefarious reasons.
Interesting WV Loop.
Air moves up... then it moves down.
I'm going to post the thoughts of a wave watcher I know.
I'd call him an expert on waves.
Those in the ocean you can surf and those you can track.
Beware of long range models.
And that said... watch this Invest carefully.
It has potential for problems.
Possibly big problems.
Or maybe it will crawl up onto the beach at Ana Maria Island
ALA Julie on the East Coast.
The jury is not in and we await the verdict.
Don't get distracted and ignore this wave.
But don't feel you need to obsess over it either.
The words on the right he wrote are as follows:
"WE NOW HAVE 97L INVEST IN THE EAST-ATLC>HELD OFF ON ADDING VIDEO TO YESTERDAYS WEBSITE UPDATE BUT WILL POST ONE LATER TODAY>BE AWARE OF ANYONE POSTING MODEL IMAGES OUTSIDE OF 10 DAYS SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES>FOR THIS SYSTEM (97L INVEST) WE ARE ABOUT 5 DAYS AWAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION FROM HAVING A CLEARER PICTURE OF WHAT 97L MAY OR MAY NOT DO>YES THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THAT A MAJOR SYSTEM A POSSIBLE E-XTREME EVENT MAY BE COMING HOWEVER THE CURRENT ENVELOPE COMING OFF AFRIKA CAN SOMETIMES LEAD TO MODEL CONFUSION AS WE HAVE ALREADY WITNESSED A FEW TIMES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS>OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE EURO NOW HAS WHAT IS 97L INVEST LIFTING NORTH OVER HISPANIOLA>#ONERUNOF MANY MORE TO COME
STAY TUNED TO DABUH.COM SEE YESTERDAYS UPDATE FOR MORE INFO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 NAMED SYSTEMS OUT OF THIS SETUP AS THERE ARE TWO LOWS IN THE ENVELOPE
END BROADCAST TRANSMISSION IMMEDIATE REBROADCAST REQUESTED"
I love people who are original.
Sharp, smart and funny.
They make life more inspired.
So I'll show you the models because you ask.
But telling you ... models are often wrong.
And this year more than most they have been off.
They have spun up more BIG CANES...
...and lost them in real time.
What models show is a pattern.
The high gets stronger or weaker.
A cold front is stronger on one run.
Not so strong on the next run.
Wait until this crosses the Islands.
Wait until Tuesday to get a better picture.
But as always check back daily :)
I'll try to be entertaining and educational.
Throw in some music and some history.
Also a bit worried on some historic storms that were similar.
Some storms like Hazel and Agnes caused much inland flooding.
Some impact at landfall but those that come in October....
Can be summer enders.
Okay that was an odd word.
They bring the end of summer.
The cold fronts win out...
One last burst of tropical moisture surging N or NNE
Riding a front...happens.
Just historical reminders.
This storm would be Matthew.
Not Mitch... Matthew.
Have a great Sunday!!
Just because you put a red maple on the screen at TWC..
...does not make it fall.
It feels like summer in many areas so enjoy it.
There is flooding going on in Iowa..
..someone, somewhere is always getting slammed by
@bobbistorm on Twitter
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Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm