Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Karl .. Will the Cold Front Crash His Party? Julia North bound into NC as weak TD.. Remnant Low Anyone?

I can't say this for sure, but as of now it looks like Karl will recurve out to sea and not be a direct coastal threat to the East Coast. However, that being said, Julia is STILL there and some models show her making a run for the coast AGAIN. So in any other year I'd have more confidence saying Karl is out to sea, but this year Tropical Storms cannot be ignored until they are dead, dead, dead. Remember Fiona should be the motto. Remember Hermine brings home the point.

The NHC  forecasts Hermine to be a Hurricane.

Big news of Sunday is that the forecast track ...
....has been trending Westward. 

Cone below shows the typical story.

IF on the 5th Day it's in the South part of the cone.. FL watch
IF on the 5th day it's in the North part of the cone.. Carolinas watch.
Bermuda should always watch :)

Is this an East Coast storm?

There is a cold front. 
Unless the forecast for the cold front is wrong...
No the cold front will pick it up.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

That's Karl now so let's keep the panic in perspective.
Getting a solid little core there... can see where it might develop a tail.
Misplaced, disheveled. 
Looks like it was out at a Bachelor Party all night..
But it's going to dress up better down the road.

As for Julia.
Julia will be downgraded to Remnant Low Julia.
That's like a detention for not going out to sea.
NHC had a lot of problems with Julia.
Not a terrible job for a minimal difficult storm
But worth remembering models not great right now.
NHC trying to pick out the best banana out of the bunch.

Oh Julia...
At this rate I might see her again on the road North.

Problem with the circle cone is..
..they don't always take the way out you want.
Rather than going to the right..East.
Julia wants to do OBX.. maybe Wilmington.
Of course she does.
Until Julia is gone, gone, gone.
Keep watching her.

What a year.

This is the wind history.

Here's a forecast track for wind speed possibilities..

Oh look Karl wants in on the party!
Party crasher...

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

IF the front does not crash the party.
Karl may get further West.

Days to go before it's a problem.
And it's being harassed by shear.

I don't see any immediate oh my gosh..
So let's party.
And worry on Karl tomorrow.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps sorry for any typos...
...knee deep in make up & hair decisions.


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