Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Tropical Storm Julia Update, Ian, TD12 and 2 Other Areas Being Investigated. Busy Times in the Tropics.

Note the exposed center of Julia on the image above.
It's pretty this way as you can see the banding present.
And the convection to the East out over the Atlantic.

Julia is now a Tropical Storm again ... recon found evidence for the update.
In general I will continue to refer to this storm as Julia.
Whether it's a TS or TD I'm calling it Julia for clarity.

Okay, so people have asked me repeatedly how does the NHC know the Carolinas don't need warnings with Julia so close off shore going in circles for days. The truth is there is strong westerly shear pushing the stronger weather away from the center of Julia out over the Atlantic Ocean. If models indicate this might change the NHC can at any time put up watches and warnings. They have made a forecast and they have confidence in their forecast. There has also been discussion that Tropical Storm Julia may reform to the East under the stronger off shore convection.

You can see this work out in the loop below where dry air is to the West of Tropical Storm Julia.

wv_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Seems Charleston and Wilmington lucked out.
Otherwise this could have been a big problem.

Julia is a pretty solid storm all in all at this point.
Not a strong Tropical Storm but a solid one.
Her signature is below and obvious.

Moving further East is Ian.
A friendly, fish storm.

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Ian is also being pushed away out to sea.
You can see the extremely cold water..
...and shearing shoving Ian along.
Ian is 50 MPH and moving NE.

Further West we have another system.
Tropical Depression #12

A solid signature on the water vapor.
However a small, tight core.
Behind 12 is another strong wave.
They are all strong until they swim in the ocean a bit.

Models take 12 westbound and many crown it Tropical Storm Karl.
I'll wait for the coronation before going there.
There are many different possibilities here at play.
Until we see how stubborn TD12 is won't know what happens.

ft-animated.gif (1120×480)

It is strong enough West to be visible on the loop above.
A pretty stubborn system it seems.

The NHC Discussion forecasts a Tropical Storm

So far the NHC is confident it gets a name.
Beyond that it's the regular game of does it pull NW or stay W
Or just continue in a general WNW movement.
Intensity flaring up and down depending on the presence of shear.

We are days away from discussing anything more.

It could be barreling into the Islands.
Making people in PR and the Virgin Islands concerned.
Worrying people in South Florida
Or finding a weakness in the ridge.

Not being nonchalant or flippant.
Just being honest.
Got plenty of time to "hype" this storm...
It becomes a true tropical problem.

Lastly... the NHC has an area highlighted in the GOM
20% yellow circle headed towards Texas

And last but not least.
Higher percentages for the wave behind TD 12

Currently this wave is over Africa.
Do NOT confuse it with TD12
I know this season is confusing.

Whew, aren't you glad the NHC is working overtime this year...
..on your behalf monitoring all these systems at the peak of the season?

As for me... 

I tried on some fake eye lashes for the wedding.
Not sure, maybe. 
Weren't that uncomfortable but not bad.
Did lunch with long lost cousins.
Had Nespresso at Aventura Mall :)
Bought make up. 
Made appointments.
Tonight half a dozen kids are coming in....
Later tonight my older daughter is flying in.
I want the one back in the USA that was in Israel...
..for another wedding.

Wedding season...

And I'm monitoring the tropics.
Julia is behaving unlike Hermine.
Ian is cute out there.
TD12 is far away.
No Cat 5 chugging towards the mainland...
No impending tropical doom and the NHC is doing a great job.

So.. I'll be back with more information soon enough.
Til then...

I think the area in the GOM needs more attention.
Maybe I'm just nervous with kids flying in and about.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

This seems to be the color we are going with...

Was told it would look good with black lace and sequins..
..and the mermaid mesh bottom and silver heels.

Stay tuned for how the wedding turns... 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter for faster updates

As this is a Miami event...
...some kids reportedly dumped the family for the Kanye West concert.
Spoiler alert it's not the Taylor Swift fan daughter..


Yeah... my kids are awesome.
Whole family is awesome.
Miami is awesome.
Julia is awesome.
NHC is awesome ;)

I'm wedding silly...


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