This is a wide view of the Atlantic Tropical Basin.
Bottom left you can see our large Tropical Wave aka #97L
Looks pretty aggressive doesn't it?
A sense of outflow beginning on the North.
Worth noting it is also ingesting some SAL that may be holding it back.
Not a lot of SAL but just a bit, yellow polka dots of SAL
When you get a circulation going sometimes it sucks in some dry air.
See the specks of yellow being pulled in around the circulation.
Happens. Staying low helped it avoid most of the SAL.
It's not a lot of SAL but it's at the edge of the SAL boundary...
See the circulation below fairly visible:
Recon goes in tomorrow unless they upgrade based on sat imagery.
And yes it's low, very low.
First off it has a 90% favorable red zone for development.
Note REMNANTS OF LISA are back.
The year of remnants that won't go away totally.
But not much to think on other than note it's there.
That little yellow oval is Lisa.
The big red comet will be Matthew.
Lisa was on a leash of sorts stealing moisture from 97L
Storms often do that they connect with these long ropes.
We jokingly say they are on a leash.
Note the dust between Lisa and Matthew.
Matthew is a low blower.
Cruising through the Atlantic aiming for Caribbean fun.
Maybe Matthew is in hiding mode.
Stealth like you know... paranoid.
And why wouldn't Matt be paranoid?
He sees what Hermine, Julia and Lisa went through...
Maybe he's sort of in hiding down around 8 North.
Hopes the shear won't get him there...
That's the reason the dry air isn't killing him...
...cause he's in stealth mode.
Just a few grains of dust getting in there.
Could be way worse.
There is an agreement by the models.
It develops at some point into a Tropical Storm.
The GFS shows a replay in ways of Hurricane Flora.
My problem is the GFS does not show a....
... Cat 3 or Cat 4 storm going into Islands.
Maybe next run that changes.
Model runs are only good for about 12 hours.
And I don't believe the cold front is THAT strong.
A storm needs to be STRONG at that latitude to catch the front.
This is my problem with the GFS.
In general the GFS has had a better handle on the weak 2016 storms.
The Euro and some models pull it north and lose it over Haiti or DR.
You can play weather person and loop the loops here below:
Hit the GFS or EURO
See what they say and they update in real time.
Consensus of the models:
Again scroll back up to that image of Flora's Track.
IF the front is that strong... it can do a Flora.
IF the front is not that strong it pulls North sharply..
And then what?
Dies out over Haiti and DR?
Reforms from the remnants like Julia did from the Invest?
If it turns fast and sharp it crosses PR and misses Haiti and DR.
Or does it interact so much with the North coast of South America??
That it goes West and wobbles further into the Caribbean?
See it's a difficult drama to write an ending to...
It's got so many variables.
Some storms like this just cruise West.
Sometimes bouncing along the coast of Venezuela does them in.
Or they reform in the SW Caribbean.
A lot of IFS
Check back tomorrow.
WHEN MATTHEW COMES OUT OF HIDING
And forms and we can use that perfect center...
... and put the data into the models.
We won't know for sure just what is going on ..
Other than 97L is moving West with high chances of being:
And yes intensity matters.
A tropical storm Matthew would have a different ending than a
.. HURRICANE MATTHEW BARRELING INTO THE ISLANDS.
I will say this is the best looking wave in ages.
So watch upstream as well at the cold fronts.
That could pick this system up ..somewhere.
BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:
Through the void and darkness of space...
#97L travels westbound towards an uncertain future.
I wrote that on Twitter last night.
I was being silly but deadly serious.
This has the potential for real trouble.
I've said a late season big hurricane often follows weak storms.
Mitch. Wilma. Long list I can name.
I'm going to post a drop from Crown Weather.
He's good at timing.
From Martinique South to Trindad and Tobago Stay tuned for TS conditions.
Possibly Around Tuesday Night, Wednesday morning.
ABC Islands could get a TS or Hurricane Thursday, Friday.
Hello Venezuela! Unless Matthew pulls North like Flora
So this story goes on and on ...
..but in a few days we will know for sure what is real..
..and what is just modeling offering solutions.
Beautiful Tropical Wave.
Really looks like a TD already.
But I don't make that call.
As for models the trend is East.
Maybe Matthew is the real thing.
A strong Hurricane in the Atlantic.
And catches a cold front away from land.
Check back later I'll upgrade if anything BIG changes.
Ps leaving this song here for a weather friend of mine who used to love it.