Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Waiting on Upgrade to TD or Matthew. 97L Organizing Today. US Concerns a Week Away... Are Models Right?

NRL has it's grid up for pre tracking map mode.
Usually there just before upgrade.
We are at 90% afterall

The center may be in that area near strongest convection.
The area that looks like an eye forming but isn't really.
If the center is under the stronger convection...
... this could become the Hurricane models have shown.

Close up morning visible 

But if it forms there don't say I didn't warn ya..

Note outer clouds in a large circle around the inner circle of clouds.

Note the HUGE size of the pocket around this Invest.
If a storm intensifies into a Hurricane.
It could fill up that pocket.
Dwarfs the islands.

Again where is the center?
Recon should close it off.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

The Funktop satellite is even more interesting.
Earlier looked as if a "tower" was trying to form.
Towers form during rapid intensification.

Also note it's moving a bit North of West.
The floater is centered.
It's climbing some in the loop.

IF the center reforms under the stronger convection.
It would change the models.
Wherever the center is found... 
...the models begin again from there.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Watch that loop.

This Invest is in intensification mode today.

Recon going in soon.
It's a day to watch and wait.

Bigger picture:

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Note the high pressure to it's North digging down.

Are those models correct?
Trust me they will change much on next run.

You can see the SAL outlined around 97L
So when people say SAL isn't affecting it.
I disagree but only minimally.
Shows here what I said yesterday.
Circulation sucking in on SW side.

Fly in the ointment so far is it's weak signature below.
Again note what I said on SAL on SW side.

Also the bottom part of it is scraping along..
South America.
It's that big of a system and tropical systems pull from the South.
They suck up tropical moisture below usually.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

It solves that problem.
And swats the fly 
By reforming further to the North.
Or specifically NE.

As always a system like this forming ... mesmerizing.

You can watch this process here:

Click on those grids on Mike's page.
Or most any page you like.
Watch in real time.
Best reality TV show on Earth.

A good comment on the state of 97L

NHC may have to designate... they need to put up watches and warnings for the Islands

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter ..for live thoughts in real time

Ps. I'll update when NHC upgrades.

Til then the point is ... 
..we're all in it.
Until it chooses a destination and models are short range.

This song comes to mind...

Sooner or later we're all in the stew.........

Islands need warnings... 

I don't trust Matt.
He means business ....


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