Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Updated! 5 PM....TS Matthew Forms with 60 MPH Winds Forecast to be a Category 2 Hurricane in 5 Days


That picture says it all. 
Tropical Storm Matthew is intensifying.
Organizing into a neat storm.
Convection in the center, building.
Funktop shows green that means..
Intensification .. sometimes rapid.

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If the green continues it sometimes builds a "tower"
So watch that loop often.
It's moving West.
60 MPH.
I'd say it's stronger than 60.. maybe 65 MPH.
Recon out there so they may update at 8 PM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/282042.shtml?

Find your city in the wind probabilities.
Spoiler Alert...
Keys up both sides of the cost.
To Naples and Ft Myers on West Coast
To Cocoa Beach on East Coast.
All 30% chances including Miami.


As it is expected to make a sharp turn.
Bahamas have up to 50% and 64% chances.

Cone of the hour:


It's a cone not made in stone.
So where Matthew turns makes all the difference.
West part of path over Cuba or East part over Haiti?
And how strong it is when it takes on land.
Jamaica is in the cone but might get lucky.

Either way this is a storm to take seriously.
Especially now as we can see how it looks.
In the Caribbean.

Interesting last visible shot of the day.
Big TS in the Caribbean.
BIG system up by the Great Lakes.
They almost mirror each other here.


White and Black ... Love the black and white WV Loop

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Is that wild or what?
Truly amazing how weather works.
As the system digs... 
..it opens a door away from Florida.
But that is not set in stone.

Stay tuned.

That's an intensifying storm.
The discussion says it looks that way...
..but explains how pressures haven't dropped, etc.
The pressures should drop.
The winds should pick up.
This may be a hurricane sooner rather than later.

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One solid Red Ball on the last image.

That storm wants to be a Hurricane.


Models...


7th Day on loop

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Implies it will slip into Bahamas..
..but we aren't there yet.
Tomorrow it will be interesting to see how that updates.
It's on www.spaghettimodels.com .. always.


As they said just now in NC...
After it makes that forecast turn... 
After Monday we have no idea where it is going for sure.

Please continue reading.
If you didn't already read this earlier.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Thanks for reading and your feedback.
I was a bit slow to post this ...
.. an older friend in Miami isn't doing well.
I worked with her and her husband for years.
So though not surprised it's a bit numbing to hear bad news.
I'll update this evening most likely if it intensifies as I believe it will.

It's thundering here in Raleigh.
I'm leaning against the bedroom wall as I type this.
At times the house rumbles a little.
Weather is awesome.
Tropical Weather really awesome.

Matthew I believe is pretty awesome.
Look at that 12 hour black and white loop.
See how it pulled together in real time.

& & & 


A geographic reminder Jamaica is East of Florida


Note the dip down a bit before it it pulled NW and then NNW
Possibly North.

This is the 5 Day Cone.

Jamaica on Monday.

Watches and warnings up 


The bottom line here is that it has 60 MPH Winds.
Yes, born with 60 MPH winds, headed into warmer water.
Forecast to be a Hurricane


That's a solid Category 2 Hurricane.
120 Hours out as per NHC

Why?

By dipping Low it avoids Hispaniola interaction
Hits very warm water moving slower in theory


Look at the water where TS Matthew is headed.
Now you see where the models are coming from...

Before discussing models this is what you need to know.


That's what you need to think on ...
If you live in South Florida or the Florida Keys..
You need to think seriously on this.
I didn't say panic or worry just watch it.
NC can watch and worry later.
GOM... not out of the woods.
Depends on the models.
Next model run will have better data from recon.
And should have more realistic solutions.
Tonight's models should be in better alignment.
Hopefully.
Read the previous post on the problem with models.

It was a sure thing that a system with 60 mph winds...
..spinning across miles...
Had a center somewhere as I said on Twitter.
@bobbistorm on Twitter for live time thoughts


And I was right. 
It might not have been the best center ever..
...but it's a center.

60 MPH.. 
Moving fast at 21 MPH West.
Barometric Pressure still pretty high.

Now is the time to watch.
Ignore hype but watch and stay informed.

In Spanish for my friends in the Islands and Miami.



For Live Updates check in on Facebook.
Mike from Spaghetti Models does good discussion.
Many people check in and give their own location.
It's almost like a Weather Chat for old timers.
NHC on it and all your local weather people on TV..
..as well as mets online are on it.
I'm on it... we all are.

So that's the story.

One comment on Model Ensembles.
They give many solutions.
The final "model" shows the average.
Models change in real time so don't buy into one.
And remember that the atmosphere is fluid.
Models adapt to changes every run.

So don't get nervous because you saw one model hit ___.

What the storm does in real time is the real story.
The rest is Fantasy Science Fiction Literature

More later, stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

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1 Comments:

At 5:22 PM, Blogger Tony MarkoLongIsland said...

very nice bobbi. love you site and your knowledge and passion. followed you on hurricanecity for many hears

 

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