Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Matthew Straddling Hurricane Status, Fighting Shear. Cuba SFL in It's Path? Stay Tuned. Jose Fernandez Death .. Miami NC Connections


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This is the Funktop Loop.
Shows many things.
Solid, core of strong weather.
Winds, rain, squalls.
NE Quadrant.

From the SW you can see white clouds streaming NE
That is the shear that Matthew is fighting off.
If not for that shear Matthew would be a hurricane by now.
Short term discussion has been some shear.
Long term discussion has been less shear.
Explosive sort of growth prior to landfall in ....
_________________________
(Fill in the blank)

The NHC has a low confidence in their long term track.
When they add in this sentence it's to remind you of that.


"Errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of
180 to 240 miles"

Let's look at that wide cone.


Put an X on the widest part and extrapolate.
You have Central Cuba towards South Florida.
You have falling apart over mtns in Haiti and OTS
OTS = Out to Sea
Newbies keep asking me what OTS means.


Note the 3 day is a tighter cone.
Strong confidence.
Trapped in the Caribbean.
That means someone gets Matthew.
Shear can weaken it or hold back strengthening
Shear is not killing it off totally.
Shear keeps it weak.
Weak keeps it West.
Cuba watch out.
Windward Passage is hard to thread.



One thing many people like about Mike of
www.spaghettimodels.com
Is he is very real.
He asks the questions we all want to know.
Everyone wants to know where it is going.
And often the NHC does it's best to try and explain it.
Most these days get lost in a maze of models.

You have this nicely formed storm.
(It's not 99L aka TD9 aka Hermine)
It looks and quacks like a hurricane should.
Struggling on the boarder of hurricane status.

And discussion from NHC tries to explain it.
And it's a well written discussion this morning.
Way better than last night.


Wind Probs show us much.
They show percentages statistically a city could get Matthew.
Or more specifically the winds from Matthew.
Orlando has lower odds than Jamaica.
Everything in between is in it.
Miami, Keys, Naples.
Caribbean Cane.

70 MPH
995 MB


So going longer here a bit. They really are not sure and I have thoughts but not ready to share them yet. It would be irresponsible to throw a gut feeling in just yet. I'm still trying to see if this is a Cuba storm or Haiti storm and both affect Miamians who have relatives in Cuba and Haiti. Miami, you see, is a Caribbean Nation in ways. Even when you are not Spanish you are connected to the history of Cuba and Haiti if you were raised there unless you live in a bubble. North of the Lake Florida is Florida and each city a bit different. Granted Tampa is and has always been very Cuban but it's a great diverse mix of cultures. I love Tampa. But, Miami readers read my blog trying to find out how their parents, siblings and cousins will do in islands to the South of where they live in the general Miami area.

It's too soon to tell and a lot depends on Matthew as it is bucking Hurricane strength and a stronger storm does things differently than a weaker storm. When Jose Fernandez started out in professional baseball he was sent to the Greensboro Grasshoppers a minor league to learn his skill. People up here remember him, but those in Miami loved him as if he had grown up in Miami his whole life or since he was a child and left Cuba. He did live in Tampa. I'm writing this to show you how inter related everything is...  As a Marlins pitcher he did things differently than he did his first day in Greensboro, NC.


There is always some link between North Carolina and Florida and usually it's more weather related than otherwise. Often systems that threaten South Florida are storms that show up on North Carolina's shores. Same basic weather patterns often exist as I tease Phil Ferro in Miami at Channel 7 that we have the same thunderstorms up here that he has down there. It's raining up here and flooding in the Sandhills today is a big topic. And the rain won't seem to go away. Why is this relevant? Because it's a stalled out frontal boundary emphasis on the word "stalled" hanging over us giving us dark days under the pines with the sun trying to peak out. Eventually the front moves on and then does it stall again down near South Florida? Very possibly. And those intangibles are what is making forecasters at the NHC pull their hair out. 


Ivan is a Hurricane that hit Florida and traveled further West than expected... well Ivan did a lot that many did not expect. I'll show that track later and Georges that affected Key West FINALLY was supposed to turn North before PR so I'm cautious on predicting turns that may not happen for miles and miles.



Stay tuned. Miami is a city that loves baseball, especially if you are young, and Marlin Stadium is our gem in the blue sunshine with a roof that works and keeps you dry when the rain moves in from the Everglades. The roof at the new Dolphin Stadium didn't work and leaked badly in it's opening game. Young Miami kids do not wax poetic on the Dolphins as they don't remember the Dolphins winning and they don't connect to the disconnected team often on the field. Young Miami kids love the Heat and the Marlins and their favorite player Jose Fernandez died this weekend in an accident you read about every weekend but usually doesn't touch you so deeply. A boat crashes up onto the rocks at Government Cut trying to get into port in Miami. It's a narrow, jagged cut that was made years ago when the local government decided to blast through the tip of Miami Beach and created Fisher Island to the South and a way into port in Miami. The Port of Miami was later built, but the rocks at high tide are hard to see and boats often come in faster than they should. And this weekend those rocks at Government Cut took the life of someone who came to America to flee Cuba across the water. It's an amazing story and not just about some Cuban who played for the Marlins. He was loved by all.

My son wrote this online last night.
He went to the funeral procession.
He's a season ticket holder.
He's your typical Miami Millenial Marlins Fan.
Takes a lot for a Millenial to leave their zone.
But they go to Marlins Stadium often.
As do old and young from all backgrounds.
There is a kosher restaurant there.
Cubans, Colombians and Peruvians all watch the Marlins.
Together in AC often and that's Miami.


In Miami older people are worrying on Matthew maybe...
...but it's common for them to come up and miss Miami.

People in Barbados woke up to this:


Cleaning up throughout the Islands.

As to where is Matthew going?
I'll show models later today.
The front may stall.
Rain may linger across the SE.
Matthew may stall.
As I said the other day timing is a problem with the models.
The models still do not agree on the timing.
It's all about the front.

In North Carolina I fell asleep to thunderstorms last night.
 I woke up to news that there was flooding in the Sandhills.


IF that front remains weaker than expected and stalled out.
The storm .. any storm.. will seek out the weakness.
Storms avoid High Pressure.
So watch that front.

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Watch that weakness.
Shows where Matthew may go ...
..and how close it gets to Florida.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Did you read what my son wrote?
He saved his mother from drowning.
Jumped off a boat in the GOM at age 15...
...to swim 20 minutes with his mother to safety.

That is not just a Cuban Miami story but an American Story.
It's the story of a hard working hero born in 1992.
Who died in 2016 in Miami mourned by the whole city.


And this week Cuba may have to deal with Matthew.
Sorry for any typos short for time this morning.
Be back this afternoon with in depth Matthew Model Discussion

Will it be a TS or Hurricane?
Time will tell.

1 Comments:

At 7:34 AM, Blogger michael m said...

Thank you as always...

 

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