A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, September 30, 2016
UPDATED!! 120 MPH STRONGER..Will It Be 125 MPH at 5? Major Hurricane Matthew .. Where Will He Go After Carib? Intensifying .. Eye Popping Out. NHC CANNOT RULE OUT S FL IMPACTS. Cuba Major Cane. Jamaica Prepare
2 PM STRONGER
Despite land near by and moderate shear.
As I said earlier I felt the intensity forecast was too conservative.
There was discussion it could be brief short term..
.. maybe eye was clouding over.
They like their forecasts to verify.
Usually they do but when you have a storm that breaks the rules.
They break the rules big time.
From my knowledge of tropical meteorology.
And I have a lot of knowledge and experience.
That's more like 125 MPH...
See the purples in the red.
Perfect evacuation of energy with this storm.
Despite the odd caboose it's carrying with it.
Another storm did this can't remember which now.
Will find it later.
With a dangerous system like this...
A dangerous Major Hurricane.
Many things can happen.
They have a tendency to break the rules.
To make their own rules...within the realm of science.
Later we re-evaluate it and understand what happened better.
The NHC does a great job at the end of the season doing that.
Then it is studied and knowledge learned for the future.
New package out at 5 PM.
Cone should stay the same give or take.
The big question is if this stalls or slows down.
If so could intensify fast, then have upwelling.
But that is just one possibility.
Jamaica could have a big problem.
Again Haiti even far away will get intense rainfall in squalls.
Keep watching... keep reading.
Eye popping out.
Doing that two partner tango dance again.
Last time it did that it strengthened go figure.
16 nautical mile wide eye observed by Recon
Good symmetry in all directions.
Look at that picture.
Note how precisely rounded off it is on SW side.
South side... outflow channel NE
Beginning to form more than 1 outflow channel.
That's how major hurricanes work.
They pump, in, out and breathe like a heavyweight fighter
This occurred CLOSE IN to the South American coast.
This rapid intensification occurred despite some shear.
Over very warm hot water.
And the water gets HOTTER when it pulls North into Carib.
HWRF model I posted the other day has been on target.
All the talk on EURO vs GFS and HWRF scores high!
Remember the discussion of possible Cat 4 in Carib?
The dip to the SW followed by ballistic path to the N?
Problem is models that do the track well miss intensity.
And the NHC has to average them all out carefully.
Too often NHC plays it conservative.
Often that works well.
When you get a Mitch like Matthew you got to be careful.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm