As I said earlier I felt the intensity forecast was too conservative.
There was discussion it could be brief short term..
.. maybe eye was clouding over.
They like their forecasts to verify.
Usually they do but when you have a storm that breaks the rules.
They break the rules big time.
Eye popping out.
Doing that two partner tango dance again.
Last time it did that it strengthened go figure.
16 nautical mile wide eye observed by Recon
Good symmetry in all directions.
Look at that picture.
Note how precisely rounded off it is on SW side.
South side... outflow channel NE
Beginning to form more than 1 outflow channel.
That's how major hurricanes work.
They pump, in, out and breathe like a heavyweight fighter
This occurred CLOSE IN to the South American coast.
This rapid intensification occurred despite some shear.
Over very warm hot water.
And the water gets HOTTER when it pulls North into Carib.
HWRF model I posted the other day has been on target.
All the talk on EURO vs GFS and HWRF scores high!
Remember the discussion of possible Cat 4 in Carib?
The dip to the SW followed by ballistic path to the N?
Problem is models that do the track well miss intensity.
And the NHC has to average them all out carefully.
Too often NHC plays it conservative.
Often that works well.
When you get a Mitch like Matthew you got to be careful.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm