Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 30, 2016

Major Hurricane Matthew .. Where Will He Go After Carib? Intensifying .. Eye Popping Out. NHC CANNOT RULE OUT S FL IMPACTS. Cuba Major Cane. Jamaica Prepare

120 MPH
Despite land near by and moderate shear.

WSW 12 MPH (slow helps intensification)
960 MB (recon reports deepening)
Sustained 120 MPH

As I said earlier I felt the intensity forecast was too conservative.
There was discussion it could be brief short term..
.. maybe eye was clouding over.
They like their forecasts to verify.
Usually they do but when you have a storm that breaks the rules.
They break the rules big time.

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Eye popping out.
Doing that two partner tango dance again.
Last time it did that it strengthened go figure.

16 nautical mile wide eye observed by Recon
Outflow bands.
Good symmetry in all directions.
Major Cane

Look at that picture.
Note how precisely rounded off it is on SW side.
South side... outflow channel NE
Beginning to form more than 1 outflow channel.
That's how major hurricanes work.
They pump, in, out and breathe like a heavyweight fighter
This occurred CLOSE IN to the South American coast.
This rapid intensification occurred despite some shear.
Over very warm hot water.
And the water gets HOTTER when it pulls North into Carib.
HWRF model I posted the other day has been on target.
All the talk on EURO vs GFS and HWRF scores high!
Remember the discussion of possible Cat 4 in Carib?
The dip to the SW followed by ballistic path to the N?
Problem is models that do the track well miss intensity.
And the NHC has to average them all out carefully.
Too often NHC plays it conservative.
Often that works well.
When you get a Mitch like Matthew you got to be careful.

EURO shows a very strong hurricane.
A sharper turn out to sea.
Cuba and then misses FL easily.
Sorry Bahamas...
Busts thru Turks and Caicos ..
924 MB
Follows a small low out to sea.
As if it's directing it away

If you run this loop you will see.
It cross Cuba as a very strong Hurricane.
It's one sort of run...

Moves slower than the EURO
And parks off the coast of NC has a monster.

GFS keeps it closer to the coast.
There are MANY models. is a good source for models.
Jim Williams is good at pointing out which models are best.
Often models you have never heard of so check it out

You can't really rule them all out.
And some do break West and come dangerously close to

Let's take the GFDL

126 Hours out...

Crosses Jamaica with a landfall

Then slides up JULIA style near the Cape..
Cape Kennedy not OBX

Based on the patterns THIS year that cannot be ruled out.
It's easy to say it most likely will go out to sea and miss FL.
But it can't be ruled out that it doesn't or affects it in some way.

So we have different scenarios.

1. Cat 2 would feel the pull and pull North.
Strong dip in the atmosphere present
Picks it up and hurls it out to sea..

2. Cat 3 intensifying into a Cat 4 ignores it for now.
Cat 3 slows at edge of High and becomes Cat 4

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Watch the blue High... see where it stops pushing West.
That's where Matthew should* slow down.
When a Cat 3 slows down over hot water.
It intensifies.. maybe a Cat 4 even.

3. Cat 3 or 4 makes it's own weather.
How? The outflow builds a high aloft.
Happens rarely but does happen.
Sometimes they continue forward motion longer ..West.
They feel the pull eventually and turn slower than a strong Cat 2.
Timing is very important here.
Intensity forecasting is very important here.
NHC at 11 AM says this about that.

a) Can't rule out impacts to South Florida
b) They keep it at 115 MPH.

Bobbistorm's Bottom Line on that..
I think they are erring on the side of too conservative.

I think this will intensify.
As it pulls more to the N of WSW at 12 MPH..
..and the eye opening up.
It will intensify some.
It's simple Tropical Meteorology 101.

Until South Florida is off this grid .. I'd be careful.

Yes close to South America but so far hasn't hurt it.
Or perhaps it has kept it from being stronger.

I'll talk on Jamaica later today.
Cuba later today.
Saturday Night is the big time to think on Florida.

Matthew below looking as good as it gets.

This part of the world in October is bad for Jamaica.

That's Mitch a late October storm.
No big dip to grab it and then and it did dip to SW WSW
But we do have what to pull Matthew North .. in theory

Wind probabilities for Matthew up to Elizabeth City, NC
Some more to the West. Check them out.

I'll update in real time later this afternoon.

Mike says it well.
So does my friend Alfred Spellman.

Yes Alfred all of South Florida should watch this storm carefully.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

I like loops that show you the process

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