A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, September 30, 2016
Cat 4 Hurricane Matthew Could Intensify More... Swirls Slowly in Caribbean Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti Under the Gun Now. South FL Needs to Watch Carefully & Bahamas.
140 MPH Cat 4 Hurricane.
This is what is called Rapid Intensification.
Best seen on Funktop image.
Winds go up.
Eye wall consolidates.
Sometimes Eye Wall Replacement Cycles Begin.
Makes it's own weather aloft.
Those strong cells in the eye wall begin to circle the eye.
Gets really nasty.
Hard for recon at times.
You can see down into the Caribbean.
First time in 8 years the Carib was visited with a Cat 4.
So where will it go?
NHC trying hard not to put FL into the cone.
Models trending West so that may be hard.
Right now you watch Matthew dance, spin and wait.
Data from recon is impressive.
And NHC has it strengthening down the road possibly.
Could it hit 145 MPH?
Those dark reds, magenta and maroon is HOT.
IF it turns fast it misses the hottest water.
If not... really would be epic.
Some of the models are breaking West.
But it's a long ways away.
NRL MAP .. AKA NAVY CONCERNS
Florida is a concern. Obviously.
But before we worry on Florida...
ALL IN IT!!!!
So let's worry on Florida and NC later.
Much later we can worry on the East Coast scenarios.
Okay there are some hurricane history facts.
NC always worries.
I'm sure there are people far to the West of Matthew worried.
Models show a turn.
Canadian Hurricane Centre shows a turn.
(yes they spell it that way...)
I show you these 3 maps to see they all agree on the turn.
See that swirling, dipping, gigantic low?
Watch to see if and when it digs.
I don't mean IF as much as when.. ...
See the flow pulling North on back side up the East Coast?
I have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning because of it.
Now look South towards Matthew, Category 4 Hurricane
In theory that double barreled Hurricane will lift towards the poles.
The Jamaican and Cuban coast are in the way of the poles.
That is why they so often get hit by hurricanes from the South.
Unfortunately so far Matthew like a few before have not followed models.
In the end ...yes... but so far ignored normal rules of science.
Intensified despite shear and near the South American coast.
Pretty much says it well.
Also watch wobbles in the eye for direction.
Wait for real movement as it will bobble around a bit.
Recon is out there.. data coming in nonstop.
Flying around in circles collecting data.
Mike from Spaghetti Models fame...
Says pretty much what I think and others say.
This is the real concern.
Easy to read NHC Discussion.
They basically explain why they missed the RI.
RI = Rapid Intensification.
And explain what we all know.. it may strengthen.
Ummm like a speeding bullet.
Or maybe a slow bullet.
Models disagree on forward speed.
Since day one this has been a problem.
Remember when days ago I said they were far apart.
Spoiler Alert.. the slow model beat out the fast one.
Wind Probabilities are going up along the East Coast.
Miami is up to 50% from the normal 34%
Everyone above is 34%
I want to address an issue that relates to many of my friends in South Florida. Many are nervous when they see a hurricane of any kind, let alone a Cat 4 Hurricane, just before the Jewish High Holy Days. It's the New Year and with that many take off from work, go to Temple, go to Grandma's House ..which means traveling by Jetblue from NY to Boca... and some stay offline others do not. But, with the holidays coming up everyone keeps asking me "If Miami will be impacted?" "Will it be a problem flying into MIA or FLL" or rather flying out... it's a concern and many have asked do they shop for the storm or take a chance it stays out to sea. I'd say IF the trend towards the West continues and IF you are in the cone on Saturday Evening... go to the store. Go to Walmart or wherever and shop for hurricane supplies along with whatever you are cooking. And this also is for anyone who wants a heads up. It's possible Miami could get weather from Matthew even if it stays off shore 75 miles or so. If it stays off shore 150 miles you'll have some water and snack food. Use it for the kids or donate it to a shelter as whatever you are buying will be non-perishable. It's just too soon to say but go about life, pray, have a good day, check back Saturday Night and see if you are in the cone and if so .... you may as well go shopping as you buy produce for the High Holidays. That's my thought. We can discuss this more on Saturday Night and Sunday.
It's a concern many have down in Miami as Hurricanes often hit or come near during the Jewish New Year. Old, old timers remember their grandparents talking on the Great Miami Hurricane that came on Yom Kippur.. aka Judgement Day on the biblical level and they must have felt their whole world was ending as storm surge swept over Miami Beach. So nothing surprising here but a lot of newcomers to the Miami area and many do not know.
For my friends with relatives in Haiti .. yes they may get torrential rains and I am praying for your relatives and friends as it doesn't take much rain for Haiti that has little ground cover anymore to get flash floods. Leaving this link up for people who do not know what I am speaking on but it's a factor in the flash flooding problem. Then again back in 1963 when Flora made landfall I believe over 5,000 people died and there were trees and it still was a problem. It's always been a problem.
So even a strong glancing glow can be bad, very bad.
Cuba has some of the best meteorologists anywhere. But it is a poor country in many places outside the beautiful tourist areas and a strong hurricane could kill many and do terrible damage. And I have many friends in Miami who have a sad feeling in the pit of their stomach when they see a Major Hurricane track that takes it across Cuba.
In reality we watch this storm carefully whether we are in Florida or North Carolina. Whether we have loved ones in Cuba or in Haiti as Miami is a diverse, beautiful city filled with some of the best people in the world and obviously the Caribbean. North Carolina we can talk on way later.
Phil Ferro from Channel 7 in Miami writes a great blog.
It's specifically for the local Miami market.
That IS your bottom line.
What do I think?
I think that a Category 4 Hurricane that hasn't followed the rules.
Most likely will continue to not follow the rules.
In theory it will feel the pull to go poleward.
The DIP is in play now.
What will Matthew say to the trof.
A Major Hurricane establishes it's own High aloft.
That high can make it's own steering current.
The models say it goes North.
It could miss South Florida and cross Cuba by Gitmo.
It could do something else...
Time will tell.
Follow along on www.spaghettimodels.com
http://www.stormcarib.com/ (read comments on right)
https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp (download their app)
And really watch Matthew.
Don't obsess on models as much as what Matthew does.
There is your drama in real time so take a break from the model drama.
Learn from the NHC ..do not underestimate this hurricane.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm