Matthew still down low in the Caribbean Sea.
There's your satellite image and your tracking map.
A close up view of the cone shows it is wide on 5th Day.
Discussion from the NHC explains this a bit.
But you have to read the discussion.
Not just the graphic.
Or read my blog or others that go into detail.
The devil is often in the details.
I went to sleep around 3:30 AM last night after a late night waiting for the 2 AM to come in and talking to friends online. They are friends, we talk online, we have been talking for years on and offline. A network of people addicted to staying up for the 2 AM advisory (or setting their clock to wake u for it) when there's a Major Hurricane on the map. And, there has been a very major hurricane on the map driving forecasters crazy. Last night at 11 PM it was forecast to be moving NNW at 7 MPH and it was definitely not going NNW at all and that was annoying. It's one thing to forecast it to turn more to the NNW over the next few hours and it's another thing to insist at 2 AM that it is going NNW when it's barely moving North of West. Annoys a lot of people who understand the difference. There was much discussion way until 3 AM why the NHC persisted in posting NNW as their forecast shows vs stating current movement.
Without using names, last night more than one person told me the hurricane pulled East online. I didn't want to argue with the NHC or graphics shown online but it's realistic to understand some people do not get how the cone and forecast is done. Perhaps they moved to Florida from Wyoming or California or maybe even Kansas and they never saw a cone. But because the cone was moved to the East away from the earlier cone that touched Florida... they thought that meant the hurricane moved East. In today's graphic driven world (are you still reading this??) people do not always get the cone nor do they understand the advisory itself. Years ago everyone watched TWC and they explained things well. Now days most people watch Netflix and HULU and don't watch TWC or CNN or FOX anymore. Honestly, reality bites ...
If you are a Miami or Texas or Carolina kid...
You know what this means.
It's a forecast of movement.
Not a statement of fact.
But it's confusing.
If you just moved to Miami from North Dakota...
...you may think when they moved the cone the hurricane moved.
Or you may think that the storm has really turned when it hasn't.
Try it sometime.
2 AM online is the place to be.
Best friends, colleagues and siblings up arguing.
According to the NHC in their discussion they have low confidence in the 4th and 5th day and their best team models are all to the left (WEST) of other models. The new cone at 11 AM will have data from morning visible satellites as well as recon that is in the storm as I type this post.
So going to keep it short and sweet. As the Miami Herald said... if you live in Florida stay alert.
If you go to the NHC site..
..read the details don't just scroll through.
South coast of Cuba could get a 11 foot storm surge.
And again I think that may be conservative.
The Islands in the Stream South of Florida..
Are in for a big, bad hurricane.
The only saving grace is it's core is small.
Cloud signature huge.
But strong core of intense hurricane winds is small.
It's confusing to the newbie who just moved...
...to Hurricane Country.
That bend in the wind to the NW ..WNW is
98L now an Invest.
Forecast to maybe have a steering effect.
Read previous blogs I called it a tug boat.
I will discuss this later.
The well formed area behind it is not an Invest.
It's only 30% right now but NHC is watching it.
3 systems out there.
A Major Hurricane...
A CV Wave no one is talking about.
Good news it looks as if Matthew will make the turn.
Not making it yet but it is forecast to do so.
Please read the previous post
@bobbistorm on Twitter
I'll be updating all day.
Sorry for any typos.
I'm cooking for the Jewish New Year.