Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, October 01, 2016

UPDATED ...Matthew 150 Will it Move NNW at 7? Stationary Crawling WNW .. towards NNW? Looping... Listening to Country Music and Looping. High Still Pushing Down On It. OFF OBX in 7 DAYS? Stay Tuned...



2 AM continues with the forecast for NNW at 6 MPH
No changes in intensity.
In truth it has not moved NNW ...
...it may move NNW eventually.
More a Wishcast than a forecast.
Then again everyone is wishing it follows EURO
Maybe by daylight will move NNW... ....

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Moving at all is good though more to the left is a problem.
Short term a problem but long term should verify the cone.


Look how small it looks.
Also note the lack of winds reaching down anywhere.

Good blog by Bryan Norcross.
Reality bites...

https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross/?fref=ts

Please keep reading. Thank you.



Major Hurricane Matthew just 7 mph short of Five Star Status is a strong Category 4 Hurricane in the Caribbean. Oddly, Matthew became a Cat 5 over an area close to land and not over the warmest water in the Caribbean Sea. If and when Matthew begins to move NNW at 7 MPH (that's forecast movement not actual movement) it will move into an area where it can intensify once again possibly. Hard to say as this hurricane has defied logic so far and has intensified carrying a caboose along with it that often has convection almost as strong as the actual hurricane.


That's just one picture showing very strong convection to the East.
The Eastern half of Matthew is an intense ball of convection.


The extra baggage is bigger in size than the core of Matthew.

I could show scenes from a Farrelly Brothers movie but I won't.

But it does seen stuck on Matthew doesn't it?

ft-animated.gif (720×480)


Mind you tonight the greens are strong in the caboose...
In theory that shows rapid intensification ...
...in the part that's not the Major Hurricane.

Hmnnnnnnnn

This has been a hard storm to forecast.

On Friday I gave my thoughts on the forecast.
I didn't like it. 
I rambled on and on not online.

The NHC is the bottom line.
I can't scream "WRONG!!!"
But I do give my thoughts.
And I often imply things.


On Friday I said they were too conservative.
I was right.

And again timing is very important.
As is Intensity Forecasting.

Intensity forecasting remains the Holy Grail of Hurricane Forecasting. Plain and simple and true we just don't have that down yet. At 11 AM the NHC explains in discussion reasons why it will not get stronger than 115 MPH and by 11 PM it's a Cat 5. Forecast blown badly, but understandably. Shear was present and again even shear forecasting with a Major Hurricane in the area is not easy. Or a hurricane going Major blows all forecasts including shear. And for some reason being close to the coast of South America did not hurt it as it has hurt other storms before it. This really has been the year when storms intensify close in even over land as was the case with Julia over Florida. Matthew will be studied much down the road and in the rear view mirror we will understand better what happened.


In 2013 Tropical Storm Dorian carried along extra baggage most of the way from Africa. It was seen as holding it back from developing into a stronger storm. At times Dorian looked like it was going to bust into Hurricane status and then it kept falling apart and that happened so many times it was actually downgraded, upgraded so much we began to feel dizzy from Dorian.

2013 I wrote this on Dorian.


To the SW of the pic of Dorian above.
Was the caboose like area it dragged along.
But that was nothing compared to Matthew.



So let's lay here and be lazy and loop.

bd_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)



I'm not gonna imply nothing.
I'm just gonna lie here and loop.
I will say that was forecast movement.
So far looks like it's still stationary.
A sort of inertia going on there.
If anything it's creeping WNW at 5 ish...


Inertia. Anchored together.

Models are good but nothing beats looping.
In the short term you need to understand the storm.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The big Low over Ohio has retrograded into Illinois.
Again it's all about timing.
IF MATTHEW MOVED ALREADY
It would have felt the pull more.
It may feel the pull tomorrow . . .

They are actually spinning in tandem.
The Low that was digging down.
Matthew that is supposed to pull N.

12 Hours ago:


Current 12 hours later say Midnight


If anything there is now more moisture in GOM
Less dark, dry colors. 
High pressure pushing down on Matthew from NE.


Being honest lying in bed with the laptop on my lap.
Looping.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

See that High Pressure coming off Matthew...
...and from the ridge pushing West?

And Nicole may be forming.
Oh did you miss that part of the equation?


20% in the 5 day.
So this little insipid system is forming.
And supposedly helps steer Matthew out to sea.


Hmnnnnn

Things that make you go "ummmnnn" in the night.
Like WHY does a Cane have to be 157 MPH to be Cat 5?
Who decided that anyway?
My inquiring mind wants to know...

Wind probs from NHC show where they imply action.



So where do we go from here? The high needs to stop pushing west so Matthew can take the Northern route out of the Caribbean. Matthew can't miss it's ride out of town. The EURO is a fast route out to sea and saves the East Coast from getting way too much action from Matthew. The GFS goes so slowly and misses that ticket out of town and slides up along Florida (hopefully off shore) and then has some issues with Eastern NC and other ports of call to the North.


Look at those 50 and 64 numbers.
Wind probs show more than the cone does sometimes.
They show patterns.

Cone simply shows this:


Models below show why the cone looks like this:


Now you see how they made the cone...

Close up:


www.spaghettimodels.com

This isn't rocket science... 
Though the models imply Matthew ...
..takes off like a rocket North bound.

Hope those models are right.

This is for Mike... from Spaghetti Models


Will see tomorrow if Matthew is moving 7 MPH NNW
Or if it was simply forecast to do so.
And Cuba is definitely in the line of fire.
NHC discussion shows it can intensify before Cuba.

Stay tuned.
Til then remember what I say.

Watch the models for long term possibilities.
But watch the storm for short term reality.

Close in...

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Wider view:

jsl-animated.gif (720×480)

Looking up stream at that trof:

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

As of 1 AM it is not moving NNW
It might tomorrow.
If anything its moving W or WNW or...
It's doing another loop.

Spoiler Alert:


As always time will tell...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Until Matthew has moved off of South America..
Until Matthew is already gone out of the Carib.
We keep looping . . .


So far looks more WNW but ...
...Matthew could be looping.
Wobbling as Cat 4 Canes do..
Dancing with it's blob in the Caribbean.

Sweet Tropical Dreams












1 Comments:

At 12:13 AM, Blogger Cheryl Connell said...

Thank you Bobbie,i appreciate all that you do..was great seeing you on Mike's page last night

 

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