Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Matthew Stubbornly Moving WNW to NW Barely Moving. NHC Forecasts the Turn. Models May Pull West a Bit. Stay Alert ... Pray for People in the Path of Matthew in Jamaica Cuba and Haiti. 5 Day Cone Touches the Carolinas. Happy Jewish New Year.. From Me to All Of You...

NW @ 5 MPH
145 MPH Wind Speed
945 MB


Look at Jamaica in a distant rain storm.


In Motion:

avn-animated.gif (720×480)

Cone below shows where it's forecast to go.


New Cone for Matthew
5 Day touching on Myrtle Beach, SC
Close to Wilmington, NC
4th Day sliding along the Florida Coast.

Matthew has moved away a bit from South America.
Firmly, fixed in the Caribbean.
Forecast to move North into the Bahamas...
Passing over parts of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti...

Matthew wandered West today for a while.
But the NHC believes it is beginning to make the turn.

Relevant discussion is below from the NHC



Wind Probs of Interest...

About the same as the 11 AM.
Matthew on track with the forecast.

If for any reason Matthew does not follow the forecast..
..will be one of the biggest busts in years.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

I am a little concerned that in the short term...
...that High is unrelenting pushing West above Matthew.
I see the path North but I see it being in the West side of the Cone.
Keep that in mind, unless it swerves right somehow.

Models:



It's all about that High and the path N for Matthew.
And Matthew has to cooperate.



This is forecast to be a slow mover.
That means we are waiting for the next front.

No more caboose behind Matthew.
Looking picture perfect.


Showing you this loop to remind you..
This is the real Hurricane.
The tighter, meaner inner core.

jsl_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

With every mile West Matthew moves...
...the ante increases for coastal impacts in the USA.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Again for now the High is pushing West with Matthew.
At some point that ends.. in theory.
The moist area across South Florida and the East Coast..
...beckons Matthew North..
Check out that moisture in the Gulf of Mexico..

See the flow moving North along the coast.

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

When Matthew gets closer to Cuba...
...we will see what happens.
Interesting area of convection in the Gulf of Mexico
(she said twice now...)

I'm not going to wax poetic on models because...
...this isn't about models its about Matthew.

Again I'll show the NRL Map.
Because if you are in the shaded area... 
.. PAY ATTENTION TO MATTHEW


Not much more I can say.
The rest is up to Major Hurricane Matthew.

The Canadian Map has pulled a bit to the West.
Remember when it was a solid North Line?


As for me I've been baking, cooking and trying to rest.
A bit under the weather myself but nothing major.
Preparing for the 2 Day Jewish New Year.


That's a challah ring with cinnamon sugar on it.
I baked it while looping last night.
And a honey glass in the middle.
We dip the challah in the honey.
Think of it as a Cat 3 Challah.
Sweet...

As always I'll be offline for those days.
Refer all questions to Mike ;)
www.spaghettimodels.com
https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate
@tropicalupdate (so cute he got that handle first, think on it)
Keep him on his toes... 
... look for his Live Facebook Broadcasts.

And as always keep your eye on the NHC.
They are the bottom line.

I may update later today at the top.
Or not. 
Really today is about Matthew..
...and tomorrow.
Matthew are you turning North?
Because your cone is knocking on the US Coastline


May you all have a sweet year filled with love and laughter.
Wealth and Health to enjoy it!
Peace and Joy


Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. www.spaghettimodels.com
www.hurricanecity.com
www.flhurricane.com
www.crownweather.com
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
www.weather.gov 



1 Comments:

At 3:35 PM, Blogger michael m said...

Happy New Year!

 

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