Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Y Hire a Weather Person? Hurricane Season 2016... What will it be like? It's Complicated. El NINO WANING.... NASCAR DAYTONA

No not talking about relationships.
Talking about weather forecasting.
In the old days farmers looked to signs.. 
Those signs were based on years of observations.
Now days we try doing long range forecasting.
Yet often we get the short term wrong more often than the long range.
Again it's about observations, patterns and now days models.

There are some excellent weather people who do this daily.
They share their knowledge with us...
They area also often employed by private industries.
Why not just rely on the NWS?
Sometimes we want someone who puts our needs first.
The NWS does a great job overall.
But sometimes, like in relationships....
.... we want someone to put our own needs first.

A lot of people ask me often...
"So is this going to be a busy hurricane season?"
In truth that's a bad question.
The real question should be ... will I be impacted by this hurricane season.
We can have 13 named storms and they all stay out at sea.
Maybe 5 of them smash into Texas. New England & FL are fine.
Some years like 2005 Florida gets criss crossed by named storms.

It's not the hurricanes fault. 
Florida does stick out into Hurricane Country like a thumb.

attachment.php (498×337)

If you had ships leaving out of NY NJ ports you'd wouldn't care about Houston.
Well unless one of your ships was going to Texas.

Roofers need to be SURE it's not going to rain.
I say this as the Church down the block is putting on a new roof.
The NWS forecast was for a sunny day today ..a few days ago.
In fact weather people on the news were shouting about sunshine.
Today they are singing the might rain on Sunday blues.

Perhaps the Royal Caribbean Lines needs to worry more on weather..
...and less on greed and the need to meet time lines.

This is a story that doesn't go away.
I'm asked about "that ship" all the time. 
Starbucks or Temple someone asks me about "that ship"
Mind boggling. 
I guess in the end it was a win win..
They get free publicity and the ship didn't sink.
But I digress.

One of the very best weather people I ever knew....
...worked for a shipping company.
Freight companies worry on weather 24/7.

Should they worry on the 2016 Hurricane Season?
I think so... so far we have one storm and it's February.
How complicatingly rare is that??

What kind of hurricane season will this be?
I'll direct you to
In February Rob is looking forward while discussing the next winter storm.
Here's an appetizer. 

And he is so right. It's complicated.
This year especially it's complicated.
We are in an El Nino that is showing signs of waning.
Some meteorologists say it's showing signs of collapsing.
Some meteorologists who drive a 1970 Volvo insist it's fine.

It's time for it to go in my mind.
But time will tell as always.

Why does Rob lead off with El Nino?

ASO is August, September, October.
SON is September, October, November 
SON is AKA "Peak of the Season"

Blue is La Nina.
The models show a possibly active La Nina in 2016.
If so the East Coast is in play for well .. hurricanes.

From one of my favorites Intellicast.

Old article but still true.

Rob of Crown Weather fame goes on to explain...
3 scenarios where it could be busy, average or slow.

Why?? Because it's complicated.

Jim Williams has always focused on "where will hurricanes go"
Though he does get into the "how many" questions as we all do.
In fact he sometimes makes a list for "busy" vs "slow"

Larry Cosgrove is a great met. I've learned so much from him.
He has been spot on all year with regard to El Nino.
Last year he said it would not be the El Nino LA was hoping for...
In fact he is worried in his long term forecast on Santa Ana winds.
Not nourshing El Nino rains .... 

El Nino's are so fickle.
They form differently. Each is different.
Reminding us again how weather is fluid.
Forecasting weather is not easy.
I give people like Rob a lot of respect.
Check him out if you know someone who has specific needs...
....or you just love reading forecasts with regard to your favorite weather.

Mike, God Bless him, has hobbies other than weather.
NASCAR ... today is Daytona 500 
We know what Mike is thinking about today...

While watching flip flopping models... Mike has NASCAR.

You can have NASCAR today too if you like.

For some of us weather is a hobby.
For some of us weather is a profession.

Weather like politics is complicated.
If you have specific needs regarding weather....
...hire a weather person to look out for your own needs.

We should all learn to look out for our own needs.

Weather like politics ... it's complicated.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


Post a Comment

<< Home