Yellow Circle 20% NHC Posts. Hovering South of the Yucatan, Headed into GOM. But then...Where Does it Go?

10% next 2 days

20% next 5 days

Nestled South of the Yucatan in the Gulf of Honduras...

...is a developing low pressure area.

Due to land interaction...

(part of the area is over land and said Yucatan)

Nothing will form quickly.

If it makes it into the BOC ....

Note currently a good part of the convection...

...over land. The Yucatan.

Models vary of course. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Could this happen? 

Possibly.

First we need a center to form.

Pressures have been dropping.

People have been watching.

Today the NHC posted a Yellow Circle.

Again things take time.

Where would it go? People keep asking me.

First we need a verifiable system with a clear center.

Front comes down.

And then...the front goes flat.

Oh my gosh what's that down by Tex Mex Border?

If a frontal boundary comes down it could pick it up.

If not it moves NW towards Tex Mex border... 

Even then with time a front dipping down would pull a storm North.

Even NNE. 

It's that time of year.

A lot depends on timing.

Direction of track would depend on timing.

Does it form on Sunday?

Monday?

Time will tell.

One thing we do know is the water there is hot.

Now we need a center.

Not popping Cat 5 Hot.

Just hot enough... for a name not just rain.

But for now chances are low.

I'd give it more a 25% chance of forming.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter