Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Floods Models & the NHC



Or perhaps the answer is "we'll see....'
Magic 8 Ball only goes out 5 days.
And often they miss things past 2 this season..
Just being honest.

Day 8 or 10 or 12
Models are delicious.
Models might be hallucinating.
Screaming "FEED ME! FEED ME!"

Why are we paying attention to the models.

Set up in the SW Carib is ripening.
Not quite there but almost.
A strong front comes down....
A ridge builds to the north.

Just because the stage is set... 
...doesn't mean it happens.

And, what happens?


Autumn often turns the switch for hurricane season.
Was Joaquin that big storm a bit early?
Will we be hearing Winters Song too soon this year?

You somehow need the fronts to turn the switch.
For End State of the Hurricane Seasons.

(note that garden & share is from a Tennessee Williams movie)

But the models say . . .
Let's look at the water vapor loop.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Note the front pressing down into the Deep South.
Note the Western edge near Texas is pushing too.

Fools and fronts rush in when models go crazy.

Let's turn the world around.

sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif (640×512)

See that moisture laden flow pushing up towards Alaska?
Puget Sound?

This is the news from Tacoma.
Tacoma Washington not the Park in DC

Tacoma not Columbia.
Washington State not South Carolina.
Flooding is in this Autumn.

Come rain or come shine.... 
... I love it up there.
Sometimes I think I should find a job and move there.
Shhhh don't tell anyone, especially my East Coast kids..

South Carolina is cleaning up this Sunday in drizzle.
It rained yet again.
When you're in the flow.. you're in the flow.

Texas had flooding too.
Are they in the flow?
Where would a storm in the GOM go?

What's in a model?
It's like a song.

One person sings it one way...

The other model sings it a different way....

And then when they come together... 
Or come close together.

The NHC weighs in . . . 

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps I will update later if the NHC blinks... later...

Will it be a quiet dream or a wild dream?
Your choice right now cause nothing is there...
Just models dreaming...

And weather people tweeting


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