Joaquin Aims for Azores. El Faro Sunk... Gone. Carolina Tries to Clean Up. I95 Tries to Open.

At 11 PM Hurricane Joaquin.... was a still a hurricane.

Up far in the North Atlantic

I realized tonight why I like the Canadian Satellite.

It looks like a UM Hurricane. 

This view also shows the very cold water to the NE of Joaquin.

Or take the red and blue view.

I was wondering why the 11 PM was slow coming out.

Discussion tells the story. Waiting on latest imagery.

Cone has shifted to the right side of the 5 PM cone.

Now headed more towards the Azores...

And being Post Tropical sooner rather than later.

Compare and contrast below with 5 PM 

Note the Azores were in the Wind Probs at 5 PM.

But.. I waited on 11 PM before including it.

Note 5 PM discussion wind probs.

Wind probs always rock..

How did Joaquin remain a hurricane so long?

This is how Joaquin stayed alive.

Note how he tapped into deep tropical moisture

Compare and contrast the cone from 5 PM

Note the 11 PM cone is on the South side of the 5 PM Cone.

Hurricane Joaquin had Great Britain in it's 5 Day Cone at 5PM. Go figure. The little engine that could .. never stopped going. Long live the Euro...

80 MPH moving ENE at 29 MPH. Crazy storm. Dangerous Storm. Totally underestimated storm.

Let's go back to Monday Morning at 5 AM when the ship El Faro was getting ready to depart to San Juan in a "slow hurricane season" famous for storms unable to hold it together and a much talked about El Nino leading to the illusion of safety from disastrous storms.

15 people have died in South Carolina from storm related deaths. That number may climb..
33 people were on board the El Faro
_____
48 people have died from and that isn't counting any final totals from the Bahamas.

This is what bothers me when people wax poetic on El Nino and how we don't need to worry on hurricanes this year. This is why it bothers me when they put up cartoon characters like Godzilla and write long articles about Global Warming and the demise of the 2015 Hurricane Season due to the biggest El Nino since 1997 in August or even early September.

The Ding Dong the Witch is Dead that went on this past summer has turned to chagrin and dismay.

How could a ship set sail into a hurricane in today's age?

Well the forecast a week ago at 5 am is shown below. Note the ridiculous amount of "which way the storm might go according to every model but the NAM" vs a hard core, old fashioned discussion (before the models were all public) of the basic problem with making a forecast for a still disorganized tropical storm. Note, many made fun of the fact that the NHC even upgraded that Invest while worrying on moisture in the Gulf of Mexico.

Okay I'm really not here to crucify the NHC on this one.

They did a good job with a very difficult storm.

A worst case scenario of .. everything that could go wrong did.

5 Days before this I don't even think this area had a yellow circle.

But that's a blog for another day.

I'm just saying 

Dorothy got more solid advice from the Scarecrow.

And ...he supposedly didn't have a brain...

There's a blog post up on www.stormcarib.com that is worth reading.

But it did make a difference to 33 souls stuck on a ship...

.... in the eye of the Category 4 hurricane.

I bet if they could speak they'd say it felt like a Cat 5.

But what does a few miles per hour really mean.

When you are stuck in a stuck storm...

Great discussion Dave.

Thanks to me friend Pat who always makes sure I read it ;)

Such a really good solid discussion.

Compare and contrast with NHC discussion.

NHC discussion used to be more clear cut.

Conservative ALWAYS but clear cut.

Yes. I know ... it's written for professionals to reword.

BUT in today's world everyone reads it...

..as they watch the models.

Every kid on a Kindle can access the models.

Every great grandparents on windows can find it.

It's on our phones... u don't even need a PC anymore.

You don't have to go to AOL Weather Boards to find it.

You'd think the NHC would put up their own model graphics.

But then why would they compete with Ryan and Levi?

Anyway... 

Just saying they were way too conservative from the start.

Yet... it wasn't even a yellow circle 5 days before.

On the 22nd there wasn't even a purple splotch let alone a circle.

We were watching other areas.

On the 22nd ...no circle, no splotch.

On the 26th... an orange circle pops up.

Makes me wonder if we had another Labor Day Storm...

Would the models pick it up?

Would the NHC be conservative in the beginning.

This in ways reminds of the Labor Day Storm.

Nothing...then SOMETHING.

What would they do in such a scenario?

The ship sank. 

Bottom Line...the ship is on the bottom of the ocean.

15,000 Feet Down.

http://jacksonville.com/news/florida/2015-10-05/story/timeline-search-cargo-ship-el-faro

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/06/us/el-faro-missing-ship/

Who made what mistake when will be assessed.

The shipping company is the bottom line here it seems

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/local/2015/10/05/tote-acknowledges-captain-could-have-been-overruled/73427310/

The ship was old for this sort of trip.. but inspected recently.

Due to be transferred to Alaska I believe but made the trip.

Time will tell this story as we learn more of the facts.

But... put this in the perspective of the media hype on a Weak Season...

And, it bothers me a lot.

No one on Tuesday or Wednesday morning saw a Cat 4 coming.

And when I say Cat 4.. we are talking just  a few mph short of Cat 5.

Strong gusts definitely in Cat 5 range.

A huge ship stalled ....out near an almost Cat 5 Cane..

And a container ship with cars stalled out from loss of propulsion.

A bad, bad scenario.

Time will tell the story.

Authors will write books.

A movie or documentary at least will be made.

Families and friends mourn ...

There is no real closure.

Just floating Styrofoam from packing materials..

..bobbing up and down in the ocean over 100s of miles.

Miles and miles away... 

Miles of highways are ripped up and shut down.

People are being detoured around the flooded roads.

Rivers are out of their banks and water is slowly receding.

South Carolina tries to dry out and figure out...

...how they missed the storm and got the weather anyway.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/05/the-meteorology-behind-south-carolinas-catastrophic-1000-year-rainfall-event/

There is just so much to say but I'll save it for another day.

I had a nice holiday. Nice if you want to be in Raleigh for a holiday.

But I digress. I prefer being in Miami.

In Miami I have my 2 best friends, partners in crime.

And Simchas Torah is a day to remember often.

Or a night. I remember a few great nights.

Sharon rolling her eyes and Malka pouring more drinks.

Harvey's gray jacket. 

A long walk home at 4 AM from the Cadillac Hotel.

Our kids pushing double strollers and annoyed we weren't able to..

Simcha means JOY.

It's a joyous upbeat holiday usually.

Simcha...dancing, drinking, singing, fellowship of close friends.

It was good. Just not Miami .. Nuff Said.

But... pretty sure I'll be in Miami next year ;)

I'll be in Miami a lot more next year.

Hoping to be there Purim ;)

Another happy holiday.

Not sure what they did in Myrtle Beach or Columbia.

On Monday oddly we prayed for rain.

It's really a prayer meant for rain in the Holy Land.

That time of year you pray for rain 

http://www.chabad.org/holidays/JewishNewYear/template_cdo/

aid/1288672/jewish/Shemini-Atzeret-Guide.htm

See below...

I prayed for rain this year at home.

Watching the rain fall and the wind sway the pine trees.

I prayed for rain to fall in California and not Carolina.

I prayed for the loves ones who lost the 33 souls on the El Faro.

And, I prayed people stayed away from swollen rivers.

And as the Governor of SC said... shelter in place, stay home.

In the Atlantic we have another Invest.. named Invest 91L

Which you probably know if you have been following.

It's not over ...til it's over.

Note one cool spot in the Atlantic is where Joaquin was...

...where he sat and spun...

...where he sank the El Faro...

Blue for upwelling....

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Thanks for your patience with my disappearing acts on Jewish Holidays

They are over until Passover in the Spring.

So I'll be around...

In case Invest 91L develops ...

Or an Invest closer u pops up..

And any damage Joaquin does in ...Europe.

Or the Azores...or Spain...

No words.

Great site as always 

http://stormcarib.com/

www.spaghettimodels.com

Great job.

www.nhc.noaa.gov

They have a hard job.

The buck stops there.

They are the bottom line.

Every once in a while you get a storm like Joaquin.

Intensity forecasting remains the Holy Grail.

Let's hope we get better at it.

Before the next Labor Day Storm forms..

Or any fast forming storm forms close in...

Pss... a haunting song for a haunting ship story.

And a memorable cane... i thought it was worth posting