GOM Development? Coming together. Kate or Just Tropical Rain? Time Will Tell... California Thanks El Nino For Rain... but then comes Flash Floods & Mud.

Watch that loop and see what is trying to happen...

Leaps out at you and draws you in to it's spin.

I have a friend I trust tremendously.

And if something formed in the GOM it would be in his neck of the woods.

He's in Texas.

Note he said "might" be a serious tropical cyclone.

Question is if we get a cyclone from this area?

Looking more plausible every day.

It's a slow process. It doesn't happen over night.

Rita may have had rapid intensification over night.

But she did not form over night!

First you had rain, then lower temps.

Then a good set up... then...a name... etc...

What is pulling this engine?

The models, even the Euro, keep showing development.

Every day a different variation of something forming.

It's become a new game we play.

Every day.

Another system forms.

In another way.

Hey...

Nothing else is going on in the tropics in our basin.

Note above I chose these images for a reason.

A lot of heat around in the basin, in the GOM

Also the purple blue is oozing into the BOC.

Not talking on the blob by Portugal..

Let's worry on the cities along the GOM right now.

The NWS out of Nola says this about that.

Nola = New Orleans...

Weather is locational. 

If it might affect an area...the NWS discusses it.

They don't wait for the NHC to talk about it.

They watch that region carefully.

Corpus Christi says this . . .

Still talking if and when.

Either way rain and strong weather is a real possibility.

The Western GOM is a bigger concern for weather.

Especially if this forms in the BOC.

Talking LA & TX right now.

Where it goes depends on when it forms.

How is pretty obvious. MJO is the spice.

The set up is there ...water temps are there.

The Who would be KATE. 

That is if it gets a name and it's not just tropical rain.

We are just watching and trying to not stare while the water boils.

It's an evolution.

It's a process.

It can happen.

Only time will tell...

The NHC refuses to play the model game.

They are staying conservative.

And so they should.

Waiting to see more than models this time around.

The NHC keeps saying NO!

They are sounding like the parents of 2 kids asking...

"Are we there yet???"

At some point usually you get there ...

No matter how many times you say, "NO! NOT YET!!"

Whether it will just be tropical weather or a tropical storm?

Keep watching.

I'll update when we see something other than...

"No Disturbances" 

A yellow circle...

Late bloomers can be problematic.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Yes it rained in California!

Everyone thank El Nino.

See... they finally got some rain...