Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Severe Wxr Then Polar Vortex Returns. Is Sochi a Potemkin Village or Putin Village? Truce Over As I predicted..

Let's start off with the weather... it's a very good place to start. When you read you begin with A B C when you weather you begin with the WV, IR and VIS satellites. It may not rhyme.. but trust me it works. Though now days young weather people have a habit of looking only at GFS and the EURO... which is good, but you can't forget to look at what is going on in real time when factoring in models that are "forecasting" what "might" happen.

The Water Vapor Loop shows the story very well and even without the GFS and the EURO fighting it out for the Gold Medal of Winter Forecasting 2014. It shows us that first we get the dramatic frontal boundary and then we get the cold, dry Arctic air.. again...

A area of low pressure is pushing down into the mid-section of the country. Currently it is slicing through Texas. One Southern Eastern side of Texas is getting vastly different weather than the West Texas. Keep that in mind later for discussion on the Ukraine. Waco and El Paso are a very different place from Houston and Galveston... weather wise and socially....but they are both proud to be in Texas. Warm, wet, tropical moisture from the Gulf is being drawn up towards the cold, dry air of the Wintry Front. You've heard the old saying about how opposites attract? Well the very right brained tropical moisture is going to collide with the cold analytical, detail oriented dry, cold air and things are going to go heat up in the middle of the night in places like Hot Atlanta and Memphis may feel the heat as well.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

Funny I look at that map and see the New Madrid Fault Region under the gun for severe weather. Just the way my mind works... There is always a drama going on up above.. as there is down below. Remember that!

Forecast for down the road.

Great site to keep and refer to especially as we move into what will most likely be a very nasty Spring.

The bottom line here to take home weather wise is this.
1. Thursday into Friday in the South there is going to be the chance for really nasty, bad weather. Everything from thunderstorms to hail is on the table and possibly.. the random chance of a small tornado developing somewhere within one cell along a LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY moving East towards the Atlantic caught up in a very zonal flow.

2. Polar Vortex with all it's associated jokes and drama... is back this coming week. So enjoy the warm sunshine today and buckle up because it's going to be a bump ride...and it's going to get bumpier as we move towards a very NASTY Spring.

Note that dark red polar bomb up there straddling the Canadian US Border? That's our next bout of very cold weather moving South. this case Red means COLD.  Shame when Obama was at that big summit he didn't talk to the Canadian Prime Minister about keeping that sort of cold up there when it belongs. We have more border problems this year with Polar Air trying to sneak across the Northern border than we do worrying what's coming north across the Mexican border.. weather wise.

After this wicked, messy weather system pulls off the Atlantic Coast that Arctic Air is going to dive down into the South and the rest of the country all in the same boat called "THE WINTER THAT WONT GO AWAY' aka POLAR VORTEX 2014!

640x480_wx_us_wx_msg10_i12_pattern.jpg (640×480)

Great sites online at that does way more than just Tropical Weather. Mike has done a kick ass job of staying on top of winter weather while maintaining his NASCAR weather site as well.

That's not easy to do and he does it fluidly as well as many other things.

We are moving into NASCAR season... and tornado season for chasers.

If you thought Winter 2014 was bad... you might not want to think on how bad Spring can get as continued colder than normal fronts slam into continued warm, hot air from the GOM and as time goes by the difference between the two grows and the severe weather gets stronger.

Also...flooding will be a BIG, HUGE problem.

So, follow your local weather on line on your favorite site.. NWS or

Now for the politics if you want to stay and read a bit...

As far as the Ukraine goes... it's a lot like Texas except that most of the economy of the Ukraine... is in the land surrounding the original capital of Russia.. being KIEV. And, Kiev and areas around Kiev are  a very European country that does not want to stay within the grasp of Putin's greedy little hand. True.. Most Ukrainians are Europeans. But, when Russian moved west to grab the Ukraine... the western regions were blended into the whole country. The Eastern part is Russian.. the Western part is European. That simple.

There is a very small population of true Russians in the Eastern half of the country.

The government of the Ukraine ...which is under the influence of Russian power brokers.. ie Putin insists this is a "small minority of extremists" and that is not true.

Note... Muscovy.... Ukraine. Two different entities...

Again, note two different entities...  these are freedom fighters trying to escape foreign control.
not "radical extremists"

The Ukraine the map above is actually shows the ancient city of Kiev on the Polish border.

Once.. a long time ago the world was covered with Empires that had rulers who lived far, far away and there was a pretense of power in regions ruled by local feudal lords and in the case of Russia very, very cruel Cossacks who were the fore runners to the KGB...except on horses with whips keeping the serfs in line. Then nationalism and other movements began like the "unification of Germany and France" and after WWII we redrew the maps according to 1945 politics. It was a short term solution to a very long term problem. Yugoslavia and Czechloslovakia have been divided up into ethnic countries which better reflect the people who live there.. why not the Ukraine?

It was a different world of large empires back in the day... and there was no Internet or Twitter or Social Media of any kind. Czars often thought they were in control of the regions far away and used local cossacks to keep control when there was a problem. The concept of the black market was started way before communism in Russia..

This was best illustrated when Catherine the Great's lover Potemkin was issued with the job of building a city far from her throne. When she wanted to come with on her favorite horse and carriage and see what he did he built a fake city that looked much like a Hollywood set.. only buildings from the front where she road through and villagers like extras came and waved and she rode away on her horse happy. Note ..Catherine the Great was usually happiest with her amazing Horsewoman :),0,5013735.story

Many have said Putin copied Potemkin's ploy in Sochi and built a city for foreign journalists and athletes to come...compete... and leave.

Today with the world wide web.. Internet... Twitter.. we know that the Ukrainians are not happy. And, to be honest... the Ukraine is too big a country and probably should be divided up into an Euro-Ukraine country and a Russo-Ukraine country. IF politics was that easy.

And, like they usually do... the Russian Govt said.. "let's make a truce" which means.. give us time to cut off your internet, social media, phone service and move our tanks in the way we did in Hungary in 1956.

Civil War...

Ukrainians are FREEDOM FIGHTERS...they are people like you and me who want to be able to control their destiny...however...they don't have freedom and the WEST and EUROPE is afraid of Putin and doesn't want to come to their aid... which is sad, but true.

Got to say proud of Drudge... he led with the story. Thank you. CNN and FOX are flirting with coverage as they talk their political points. Sort of amazing when Drudge can be relied on for hard core news vs just complaining about Obamacare or Partisan Politics in America. That man has heart...though it does bleed red, white and blue he obviously cares about more than which celebrity was arrested while speeding down Pine Tree Drive or what some star may or may not wear to the Oscars in LA.

Where is CNN and FOX on this? NY Times is covering the story of the father and daughter Olympians who left Sochi in protest to go home to the Ukraine. Note.. unlike the Hungarians in 1956 who would do anything just to get out of Hungary... the Ukrainians want to go back to the Ukraine and make it a real democracy not a puppet one under Putin's control.

Many feel that Sochi 2014 is a Potemkin Village...
except it's Putin's Village.. 
Opening Night Soschi 2014 

The REAL Russian City of Kiev... in flames ...the REAL STORY....

And.... Putin is NOT happy and he is biding his time... 

Let's call a truce.... cut off all their Internet, shut down the subways and when the Games are over..  Send in the tanks...

I am as American as it gets and my heart does bleed red, white and blue... 
Someone asked why we should help them and the star of Nashville said it best on Twitter.

What goes around comes around... 

and more... well said.. respect her a lot more for that then the great job she does on Nashville
someone with talent and brains and compassion!

I'll end with this... I'm not sure what should or could be done, but we need to show support and not be ostriches with our heads in the snow pretending that nothing is going on in the world while standing up and cheering for the Oympics and the Oscars and demand that the media and our Goverment representatives do not fall for a Putin Village and demand..not ask or urge but demand that Putin put an end to Cossack like measures and let the people of the Ukraine..both the European thinking ones and the ones who allign themselves work this out peacefully... without Cossack like measures.

Remember this next time you are enjoying the beauty of the Olympics... remember you are buying Putin's Village and that all is not as beautiful as it seems in Russia... Ukraine..Sochi.

"Six group members — five women and one man — donned their signature ski masks in downtown Sochi and were pulling out a guitar and microphone as at least 10 Cossacks and other security officials moved in. One Cossack appeared to use pepper spray. Another whipped several group members while other Cossacks ripped off their masks and threw the guitar in a garbage can.

Police arrived and questioned witnesses, but no one was arrested.

The Cossacks violently pulled masks from women's heads, beating group member Nadezhda Tolokonnikova with a whip as she lay on the ground.

The incident lasted less than three minutes and one Pussy Riot member, a man wearing a bright yellow tank top, was left with blood on his face, saying he had been pushed to the ground.

"They hit me all across my body, look at my bruises," Tolokonnikova said afterward.

Krasnodar region governor Alexander Tkachev, who has been advancing Cossacks' interests for years, promised on Wednesday to conduct a "thorough probe" into the incident and prosecute the attackers. Tkachev said in comments carried by the Interfax news agency that the views of Pussy Riot "are not supported by the majority of people in the region" but stressed the importance of abiding the law."

Read more here:

Besos Bobbi

Ps. Bonus word. Ukrainian.

Bonus word to learn for this time of year.

ZONAL AND MERIDIONAL FLOW - Weather Prediction Education


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