Historic Ice Storm or Hype? Waiting on snow, sleet & ice.. maybe

For now we have the Calm Before the Storm feeling in Raleigh. Snow is mostly to the south and only a few flakes have made their way into Wake County.

Online there is much talk about a HISTORIC..humongous storm brewing coming this way..

Hype or Historic? Only time will tell and by Thursday we should know the plot of this weather based reality TV show.

Officially this is what it might look like in a few days.





A good model to watch is this one...


It's a simulated radar composite model for the future...only time will tell on how this Winter Storm plays out. It is either the most over hyped "Historic Winter Storm" or the least believed in Winter Storm. Depends on who you talk to... most are so burned out by this winter and the many near misses in the Carolinas that they don't know what to believe....or who.

Saturday rain was forecast for Raleigh. Didn't rain...not one drop.
Sunday was forecast to be warm, sunny... was gray, cold and the high was 7 degrees colder than predicted.
Monday was said to be a quiet day, small chance of rain.. temps too warm for snow. It snowed.

Low confidence here these days with weather forecasts.

Every city along I-85 is under the gun for a potential Ice Storm... and there are a lot of big, tall, pine trees which stay green all year and become top heavy with ice and are prone to falling, crashing down...onto power lines. Note in Raleigh there are a lot of big tall pine trees that could go down as well... see the picture above on the top.



In Georgia the problems have begun... and in Wilmington, NC they are already seeing ice on the Pine Trees.

That picture above was posted BY the NWS in Wilmington.
"NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC  2h
Ice in the pine trees behind the NWS office in Wilmington. #SEstorm #ilmwx #ncwx #scwx pic.twitter.com/EMVVgkyont"

The basics here is a cold front moving down over parts of the country that are cold and snow covered. It is crashing into a cyclonic storm system that is moving  up from the moist, wet tropical south and they are going to SLAM into each other somewhere round Raleigh and the I-85 Corridor which will affect EVERYONE from Atlanta to Charlotte to the Triad to the Triangle and then it moves up I-95 towards the DC NY corridor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kl8ajhu_e5Y


Depending on where you are .... you will get RAIN, SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN and possibly the biggie danger wise... ICE. Where exactly??? The weatherman don't seem to know. Perhaps we should hand things over to the women to forecast weather as a woman wants specifics. I mean how do you say "the set up is possible for a potentially dangerous situation which could set up in our area and should create a hazardous situation so keep watching as this situation evolves in real time"  THAT IS NOT A FORECAST. That is a dance... a sidestep... like in Best Little Whorehouse in Texas where Charles Durning stole the show from Burt Reynolds, Dolly Parton and Dom Deluise...which is not an easy job.

Pretend the governor is a weatherman and that is what you get these days... a sidestep. And, they pass it off to the models for small yardage rather than going for the big play.

I was at Fresh Market in Raleigh this morning. Dick, who is from Ohio, doesn't believe any of them anymore and has totally had it. He said and I quote "they have these million dollar computer models and they still don't know what's happening. They used to give a forecast, now they just tell you how much money they spent on their models and don't tell you nothing"   I mean I may have missed a "now" or "just" but he was QUITE dramatic and loud. He said I could quote him... A few people passing by all agreed. He works in the produce department. He's annoyed that with all their "million dollar models" but they don't really say nothing" A lot of people round these parts agree. Then again..."these parts" is the Piedmont where the coastal plains meet the foothills and the area has many micro climates with a diverse topography. It can be snowing "up in Durham" and Raleigh gets nothing. They can be having sleet down near Fuquay Varina and Durham isn't getting any. Chapel Hill and Carrboro get snow before Raleigh. Yes. I said Fuquay Varina. Cute little town that was once a health resort of sorts in these parts back when people believed going to the hot springs in the park would heal ya...

http://www.fuquay-varina.org/
http://www.fuquay-varina.org/community-information/history-of-fuquay-varina.html



Cute place, really...down in the "piney woods" with a very nice Inn.
http://www.fuquayinn.com/about-fuquay-mineral-springs.htm

Pretty place in the snow.....would be a deadly mess in an Ice Storm.



The lady working in the deli department at Fresh Market said people are barely buying food. Every one's a bit worried on power outages. A shopper was buying a half of pound of some salad, she didn't want to buy more "in case the power goes out and ..." but she was buying berries and bananas and bread. All the B things seem to go in a winter storm up here.

Beer, berries, bananas and bread and batteries "just in case" . .

Chobani for some reason sells out everywhere.

High protein? Stays cold.. doesn't need cooking?

Good advertising?

Do Chobani eaters pay more attention to the weather??

Ice is pretty but messy.. no one wants to hear the I word here. People want to believe this is another No Show Storm and a lot of hype and nothing is going to happen except a little snow. Will see.

This was posted online a few years ago..... Beautiful. Hard to believe something so beautiful could cause so much  misery.

David Biesack

Ice storm in Wake County, NC, December 2002

One of my concerns is it's been a long time between Ice storms and Raleigh has seen a large influx from places far to the south and north that are not used to weather in these parts... and a lot of overgrown trees, partially damaged everywhere that could come down and create big power outages.

Elizabeth Gardner on WRAL said that Power Companies have already sent utility crews towards North Carolina to be on standby for any problems. In the 5 years Raleigh has been my winter home I have NEVER heard that before. Supposedly they are stationed in Florence, SC and in the Triad to the North of the Raleigh Triangle area ... and they will be on stand by to go wherever they are needed.

Sort of fighting words if you ask me... if the trucks are already headed north and south towards the area there is HIGH confidence in their private weather forecasts to send the crews out and put them up to wait for further deployment. That may say more than any forecaster on TV will say today.. other than "well maybe some snow, then some sleet.. maybe ice is a bigger problem and then snow and ending with rain maybe"

Heard the word "maybe" in a sentence earlier THREE times...

If I hear that many maybes I want to be in Miami ...on the beach...or singing a song on the beach..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfbghHdG1s


So...what do I think? I think it's a Storm in 3 Acts.

Today... quiet in Raleigh and snowing down in the Sandhills with Ice along the coast. The temperatures have dropped like a rock and it feels and smells like snow is on the way.

In the Sandhills and "portions of Wake County" they have seen snow.
In Wallace, NC the snow has been falling steady.

Mark Sudduth is on the road covering the storm driving north on I-40. In Wallace they have already had a good amout of snow on the early side.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvPXT-GCq-U

The moisture is in the air... the temperature is just right and the storm is pulling together in the GOM that will slam the tropical moisture into the cold front that is zooming down from the North. It all comes down to a track for a storm that is JUST FORMING.. in the Gulf of Mexico that will move up the coast towards the NE by way of the Carolinas. 

I may live in Raleigh but I trust Brad Panovich who seems like the most honest, accurate and sincere weather person on air in the Carolinas. He is also not afraid to say he loves weather and doesn't apologize that some afternoon flurries are a nuisance. If I want a Weather Expert I want to know he lives, breathes and dreams about weather. Brad it seems does. 

Somewhere in that circled hot Valentines Pink-Purple you can bet there will be Ice...and that swath that runs up the I-85 corridor runs over my house. Who gets it? Not sure but I do believe this storm is coming... 

Possibly coming slower than expected as the last model runs showed a slower onset.. we'll see.

I'll be back to update in real time as weather happens... 

Stay tuned and if you have not gone shopping... do so.

Make sure you have medicine for the next week... 

Food and supplies to help you through a period of no power where travel is prohibited. 

Diapers... paper supplies.

Batteries along with those bananas and berries and beer.

Sleeping bags... blankets to stay warm when the heat goes out......

Toys for the kiddies like ....crayons and paper.......as TV goes out with power and the iPad battery dies really fast. Do NOT use up your battery in your cell phone for a flashlight... get a real one and hope your phone service doesn't get disconnected.

Someone somewhere will look back and laugh about all the hype..  somewhere, someone will remember this storm as a historic, messy storm filled with misery.

It's a crap shoot which you will be....so prepare for the worst & hope for the best.

Personally I bought some Rosemary Sea Salt Rolls from Fresh Market and chocolate and produce and some dark porter beer and some things.. just in case... and bananas... and two Chobani yogurts. Hey, that many people can't be wrong...can they?

Besos Bobbi

http://www.redcross.org/prepare/disaster/winter-storm

Read the link above or share it with someone you love... like an informational Valentine.