It Begins! Winter Storm Warning... Up Close & Personal With Specific Southern Cities..
It begins.........
Winter Weather UP Close and Personal... they have begun to prepare the streets. The DOT trucks are out there, it's almost 70 degrees and people have taken to the supermarkets to hardware store to get storm supplies in case this is a worst case scenario rather than the usual over hyped forecast.
When Greg Fishel says "it's not about if the snow will fall, but when" you usually can be sure it's going to snow! I am..
I suppose this Twitter picture means he really knows winter weather :)
Note he doesn't Twitter much... but he's on TV nonstop this afternoon and will be most of tomorrow.
He does do webcasts. This is a webcast worth watching! He explains the concept of ensemble modeling vs putting "your faith in one model" ... watch! Keep in mind the phrase "spaghetti models" for "ensemble modeling" and if you are a tropical weather person you will understand it better ;)
http://www.wral.com/news/local/video/13332393/
Greg says the snow should begin to arrive in the South Raleigh area around Noon according to Greg Fishel. That's a big change from this morning's forecast for late Tuesday evening. Also, a small difference of 20 miles can make a big difference if downtown Raleigh sees 3 inches or 6 inches when all is said and done. That variable can be extended up and down the whole coast as to whether Wilmington gets Ice or Snow mostly. Whether New Bern gets the deepest part of this storm or Fayetteville up the road and high snow totals in the "Sandhills" area is rare.
Thursday Morning 7 degrees... by the weekend it should be back up near the 60s. Typical Raleigh roller coaster weather.
Speaking of roller coasters... kids across the South will be having a blast once the white, fluffy stuff starts falling. I'm still a Miami girl living in North Carolina and when it snows... I'm just like a child :) I'm mesmerized and amazed to see snow falling from the sky...
Here on the blog this afternoon I am going to show the updated information from the NWS which they put in RED if you press the little "highlight updated" link.. I pressed it.
This whole discussion is UPDATED discussion. I'm putting here so as not to "dumb down the weather" to anyone online or offline.
It's easy for me to put it plainly and keep it simple. So if you want to pass on the long discussion I'll sum it up as best as I can below. Again...this is a best guess scenario as this "low pressure" off the coast has not yet formed yet.
The timing has been moved up. From the Raleigh Durham Triangle area down to the coast North Carolina will see "significant snowfall" into Wednesday morning. The good news is the storm will pull out faster just as it is arriving faster. Easy come ...easy go? No...not really for those people who moved to Raleigh to get away from the snow ...they will be bitterly complaining all day. For the snow lovers this is what we hope for every winter. Not the mess mind you... but the snow.
Note the graphic above was upped to 2 to 4 inches. In Raleigh those are fighting words. Once people see DOT coating the roads they will be racing to Kroger or Harris Teeter to shop for the very real possibility of seeing schools closed for at least one day.. if not longer. This is not Maine or Iowa..they are not used to snow round these parts. Well, not used to measurable snow. Chamber of Commerce would like you to believe we only have show showers here that melt upon contact with the ground. True often, but not always true this year when it just seems to want to snow.
...WINTER STORM LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... FOR TUE THROUGH WED: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TUE INTO EARLY WED. MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL SPED UP THIS SYSTEM... AND WE`RE NOW PROJECTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FOR THE PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER TOTALS ALONG/EAST OF I- 95 HAS ALSO INCREASED. WE WILL BE UPGRADING TO WINTER STORMS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WITH THIS FORECAST.... ...PRECIP OVERVIEW: CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC... ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START OUT MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET IN THE ERN SANDHILLS AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN ON TUE. IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE ONE FAST-MOVING WAVE TRACK ACROSS SE AND COASTAL NC LATE MORNING TUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE SUBCLOUD LAYER TO SATURATE... HOWEVER THIS WAVE COULD STILL DROP A QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE ERN SANDHILLS/SERN COASTAL PLAIN AROUND LUNCHTIME. THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT WAVE AND MID LEVEL JET STREAK ARRIVING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BRING A SWATH OF PRECIP FURTHER WEST THIS TIME... DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL LINE UP... BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING THIS WESTERN EDGE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST... MEANING A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WILL FALL JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD... ALTHOUGH THE TRIAD IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS...
... THIS COULD BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC"
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on
Going to start next with New Orleans as what starts in New Orleans seems to want to end around the Outer Banks. The French Quarter may see snow from this storm. They will see various forms of winter precipitation! It does snow in Nola sometimes... 2014 will most likely go down as one of those years.
28storms.com posted this nice image and no PINK is not for Victoria Secrets nor is it to remind people to donate to Breast Cancer causes though it's always a good idea.
Pink in this case is for Winter Storm...
...and in this case an icy dicy mess.
Those beautiful wrought iron railings I love in the French Quarter and can't wait to see
on March 27th, when I am there to speak for the Mariposa Conference
could be covered this week with a thin coat of ice...
http://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register/event?oeidk=a07e7b3zea3f5cdb355&llr=8wkyw4jab
Temperature for March 27th...on an average day in New Orleans!
https://weatherspark.com/averages/30961/3/27/New-Orleans-Louisiana-United-States
"The temperature typically varies from 59°F to 72°F and is rarely below 47°F or above 80°F"
Compare that with the same date in January....
Average Weather On January 27 For New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
"The temperature typically varies from 48°F to 60°F and is rarely below 35°F or above 73°F"
Note the precipitation is usually rain.....
"When precipitation does occur it is most often in the form of moderate rain (37% of days with precipitation have at worst moderate rain), slight rain (34%), thunderstorms (17%), and drizzle (7%).
Precipitation is most likely around 4pm and least likely around 1am."
In fact it says this about snow.......
Snow
"Either snow is exceptionally unlikely to fall at this location on January 27 or this station does not reliably report precipitation types."
It just shows you ...in any given year... it CAN snow ... even if the website doesn't tell you that...
...and THAT is the way this winter is going... this is a worst case scenario sort of year!
I'll stay warm the rest of the winter thinking on Steamboats... Riverboats...
One thing I am SURE of is any snow should be totally melted by March 27th ...
Yup... my mind is definitely on New Orleans ...
however for the next 2 days it's going to be on snowy weather
In 1899 New Orleans was blanketed with snow..
...that shouldn't quite happen this time but.. it does happen.
Again posting this link from an earlier blog of historic Southern Snow Storms
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/snowstorms-in-the-south-an-historical-perspective
To bring this back to Tropical Weather..
1899 was also famous for the San Ciriaco Hurricane..one of the worst to hit Cuba ever
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane
" 1899 Puerto Rico Hurricane, was the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane and the eleventh deadliesttropical cyclone in the basin."
Also known sometimes as being one of the worst hurricanes to hit PR and at one time packing 150 mph winds. I'm posting this to put the seasons into perspective...
It snows. It pours. Weather is weather and often extreme.
In those quiet years we somehow forget that weather can be so extreme, the same way a mother forgets how painful childbirth was and goes on to have more children..
Weather is part of life. Pick your location, but you can't escape weather forever...
As I said earlier...some years are just jam packed with weather extremes of all kinds..
A year later New Orleans was lucky not to get the Galveston Hurricane in 1900.
You win some.. you lose some. That was one hurricane they were lucky to miss..
Galveston was not as lucky.
Back to Nola..
New Orleans forecast from the NWS website:
Nola:
This Afternoon A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph.
Tonight A slight chance of rain between midnight and 4am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Wind chill values as low as 18. Blustery, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday Rain or freezing rain likely before noon, then rain between noon and 4pm, then freezing rain after 4pm. High near 34. Wind chill values as low as 18. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet likely. Low around 22. Wind chill values as low as 6. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.
Wednesday A chance of freezing rain and sleet before 11am, then a slight chance of freezing rain between 11am and noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Orleans&state=LA&site=LIX&textField1=30.0658&textField2=-89.9314&e=0#.Uuaur9Eo7IV
Mobile, Alabama has about the same forecast as Nola.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Orleans&state=LA&site=LIX&textField1=30.0658&textField2=-89.9314&e=0#.Uuaur9Eo7IV
Savannah I'm worried on as they rarely get snow or wintery mix and they are can get a mess of all sorts of wintery forms of weather.
The main point of the long discussion from the NWS is as follows:
" LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS IN A HIGHLY FAVORED
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCATION FOR WINTER STORMS. THE CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL PROVIDE A NEARLY CONTINUOUSLY FEED
OF COLD/DRY AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS NEEDED FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. "
IE.. this is a perfect set up for Savannah to receive a blast of winter weather...
100% Chance of Wintry Mix..........
From the NWS website.
"TUESDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE PEAK OF THE
WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS IN A HIGHLY FAVORED
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCATION FOR WINTER STORMS. THE CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL PROVIDE A NEARLY CONTINUOUSLY FEED
OF COLD/DRY AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS NEEDED FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. ALOFT...A POWERFUL
UPPER JET APPROACHING OF 150 KT OR GREATER WILL STRETCH FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE LOCAL AREA POSITIONED IN
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE RESULTING JET FORCING WITH
IMPRESSIVE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND BECOME MODERATE OR EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. VARYING THERMAL PROFILES RESULTING FROM A
NUMBER OF DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES POINT TO A HIGHLY
COMPLICATED P-TYPE FORECAST...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TO ALL SNOW
STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY EAST/SE TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS...AND ALSO HOW MUCH
ICING PERSISTS. OUR LATEST THINKING IS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REACH 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE NW TIER...WITH UP TO 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ICE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CHANGEOVER
IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...SOME
POTENTIALLY LASTING FOR DAYS...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED ON
THE LATEST EXPECTED IMPACTS WE HAVE SEGMENTED THE WATCH INTO
VARIOUS DIFFERENT GROUPINGS...AND WE/LL DEFINITELY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING TO A WARNING AT SOME POINT BY LATE TODAY.
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN RULE...AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS OF
10-20 MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE TEENS JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND
POWER LINES. POWER OUTAGES ARE A CERTAINTY...AND AREA ROADS WILL BE
TREACHEROUS.
WEDNESDAY...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST TO
NORTHEAST/EAST AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...MAYBE UP ANOTHER INCH. HOWEVER THERE ARE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW FAST THE DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN...AND
THUS THIS POSES A PROBLEM AS TO HOW FAST THE SNOW SHUTS OFF. SHOULD
THE SNOW LAST LONGER THAN A MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WOULD
OCCUR. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
ICE/SNOW COVER...BUT FAR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS"
A well written and honest discussion on the many forecasting problems this sort of storm has inherent in it.
Note this sentence and it's a possibility ..not a for sure. Again, as the low has not formed offshore yet...
" THIS POSES A PROBLEM AS TO HOW FAST THE SNOW SHUTS OFF. SHOULD
THE SNOW LAST LONGER THAN A MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WOULD
OCCUR. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES. "
Which means basically............stay tuned, check back with us often.
Further inland in Georgia is Atlanta.
Atlanta... Messy, very messy wintry mix..
"Tuesday Snow likely before 5pm, then snow and sleet. High near 28. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tuesday Night Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 8pm. Low around 18. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday A 20 percent chance of light snow before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 16."
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1#.UuawstEo7IU
One of my favorite places these days is Myrtle Beach. If I blur my eyes and drink enough margaritas at Margaritaville then I can kind of sort of pretend I am back home in Miami Beach or Key West ;)
MB Myrtle Beach
MB Miami Beach
Works well...
Myrtle Beach is in for an Icy Dicey Mess. They should manage to get every sort of winter weather there is to get with this storm.
Up the coast a bit in Wilmington, NC they may be a Ground Zero for a memorable winter storm. Currently there is thought that they will have just as much ICE as they will snow. Only Time Will Tell...
Wilmington, NC may be as near to "ground zero" for this event as we can find ...however it's still unclear what their biggest problem will be from this storm. Seems great minds think alike in viewing today the sunny, blue calm before the storm. Or maybe they are reading my blog.. either way I love Wilmington and if we were not getting snow in Raleigh I would have gone to Wrightsville Beach to enjoy the snow on the beach. There is concern that ice could be the bigger danger down there..
Wilmington NWS:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
"NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...TODAY CONTINUES THE "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CREATING A
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH BRIGHT SUNSHINE...AND
WITH INCREASING SW FLOW...THEY WILL BE SLOW TO FALL THIS EVE. ARCTIC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN...FORCING SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT. THIS
WARM WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED WITH ONLY A SLOW NOCTURNAL
DECREASE...AND THUS A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS STILL
AROUND 50 A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK.
BIG CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT HOWEVER...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO CROSS FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW...REACHING ONLY TO AROUND
925MB...OR 2500 FT AGL. HOWEVER...THE CAA WITHIN THIS LAYER IS VERY
STRONG...WITH 950MB TEMPS FALLING NEARLY 20C BETWEEN 7PM TONIGHT AND
7AM TUESDAY! THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT WILL BE A PROLONGED WINTER
WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT."
Another beautiful North Carolina city is the original capital of NC... New Bern.
To understand the City of New Bern you have to understand it's geographic location at the mouth of the James and Neuse River. Blackbeard the Pirate was said to understand the lay of that land there..
http://www.visitnewbern.com/
Close in...........
New Bern is filled with places to walk along the way...sailboats twisting in the breeze. You can get ice cream at the Hilton and sit outside and watch the sailboats in the water. It's also the birth place of Pepsi Cola!
http://www.pepsistore.com/
Read all about how Caleb developed Cola.. Pepsi Cola that is...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caleb_Bradham
In Morehead City down the road from New Bern they are waiting to see if they get sleet or snow...
I love Morehead City... one of my favorite getaways.
Meanwhile back at the ranch here in Raleigh the closings are beginning to pile up and the are piling up for tomorrow in advance of the snow.
http://www.wral.com/weather/closings/
Again.. until the low forms and it starts to snow.. we won't know for sure what we will have to deal with
Some good satellite links to watch:
Isn't it amazing. 24 hours away from when it is supposed to start snowing...and there is nothing on the satelites.
We owe so much to the science of weather forecasting that we can see these signs coming without relying on signs like "my, my, my..those little birds we always see before snow Martha are all over the yard today, bet a big snow storm is comin' .... "
You can see the moisture feed concentrating and the push of the Polar Vortex about to move south... Keep watching. Look at Indiana, Ohio and Illinois..almost looks like a white wave moving south.
http://blog.weathernationtv.com/2014/01/27/snow-and-ice-potential-gulf-and-southeast-coast/
To see how fast things are changing compare and contrast the image below with the one above. That was updated while I was putting this blog together!
Now they have suggested up to 5 inches in some areas of Raleigh tomorrow........
On Twitter there is good advice...watch the highways ..
I-10
I-95
Any highway that is in the warning area.
classic linear snow to ice display along and below Interstate 10 from the San Antonio TX metro eastward to near Jacksonville FL. Jan 28 - 29
Went to the grocery store and it's packed - you'd think a hurricane was coming tomorrow! #FloridaSnow
Some good advice here from DOT on refreshing your snow driving skills.
Want to brush up on winter driving do's & don'ts, or learn how we brine? Take a look: http://ow.ly/sZH5Z #ncsnow #brinetime #ncwx
Down in North Florida they are waiting for Winter Weather... but down in South Florida they are finally happy to have a warm day today.
Hot and Cold. We are warm while the Panhandle is looking at winter advisories. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151949676507613&set=a.78586137612.81094.29790827612&type=1&theater … @7Weather #Miami
For those in Carolina chasing... Mark Sudduth who provided the picture of the trucks brining the roads at the top... he'll be out there in it. Track below...though imagine that may change in real time as the situation changes.
HurricaneTrack.com · 9,565 like this
9 minutes ago · So...............stay tuned and if you need to travel in or out of the watch and warning area tomorrow. Double check your arrangements, routes and make sure if you decide to drive... take supplies with you in case your trip is longer than planned...
Sweet Snowy Dreams...
Bobbistorm :)
Ps...this storm covers pretty much the whole of the Deep South and up into the mountains... stay tuned, it's a constantly changing serious situation!
posted by BobbiStorm @ 3:08 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home