Polar Vortex Jr... Hyping the Weather.. TWC or NWS or Your Favorite TV Channel.... Pick one...

The Polar Vortex returns this week as the "Polar Vortex Jr" or... "THE POLAR PLUNGE" as it plunges it's way down the East Coast across the Mason Dixie Line down into the Deep South.

Yeah, I still watch TV... nothing says hype better than the Nightly News and notice this is ABC NEWS not just TWC... who has named this storm "JANUS" the J storm for a January Winter Storm. Not a bad name for a January storm as the month of January was named after the Roman God Janus. Note.. Janus was two faced. You've heard of the "January Thaw" ... we had it today when it was 61 degrees and two days from now it is forecast to be 15 degrees. Ole two faced Janus... indeed.

Mind you if you have DIRECTV you might not be watching TWC and you might be watching Weather Nation.... as DIRECTV seems to be banking on people not caring where they get their weather from as long as they can put on the weather whenever they need it. I'm not going to get into the Weather Wars in today's blog, but suffice it to say a lot of people who love weather are upset with their frequent reality type of TV programming and they don't mind the switch to a channel that shows 24 Hour Weather which WAS the original idea for TWC before NBC came along. That's a long sentence.. but it doesn't seem as long as some of the reality shows on TWC seem that are on when I want to see my weather...  For those old school types who cannot get through the morning without their morning cup of Al Roker and Stephanie Abrams they are currently in mourning and running back to Cable TV.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-stakes-in-weather-channel-directv-standoff-2014-01-20

It's getting nasty out there and I mean ON their own Facebook page :(

Now Weather Nation says that no one "owns" the weather. Time will tell. But, this is what Weather Nation has to say on that:

"Consumers understand there are now a variety of other ways to get weather coverage, free of reality show clutter, and that The Weather Channel does not have an exclusive on weather coverage -- the weather belongs to everyone," the DirecTV exec said. "Most consumers don’t want to watch a weather information channel with a forecast of a 40 percent chance of reality TV. So with that in mind, we are in the process of discussing an agreement to return the network to our lineup at the right value for our customers."

This is what Weather Nation has to say concerning the upcoming Polar Plunge... which will not be called Janus on their show.

(Personally I have Time Warner so I'm watching TWC and my local Weather....but if you wish to weigh in with your thoughts... TWC is asking you to voice your opinions on their... Cover Photo on their Facebook..

Meanwhile back at Weather Nation's Facebook...............

WeatherNation shared a link.

about an hour ago

"So when we say this is historic, it's not cheap media hype. This really is a dangerous situation." - Paul Douglas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv6ZnMvwM4I&list=UUiOmTCan1HRYtZ_wWu15KJQ&feature=c4-overview

In Raleigh where we are expecting.....................anywhere between a trace to an inch or more (no one is ever sure until the flakes start to fall...) people watch their favorite local Weather Forecaster.

In Raleigh most people watch Greg Fishel who is ...note....NOT hyping the storm.

Of course... he has been known to be wrong... but rarely...

http://www.wral.com/quick-change-front-will-bring-brief-snow/13313500/

Now....why you ask do people watch TWC or Weather Nation or read my blog?

Because the other option is to read the NWS Local Forecast which I do ...however most don't understand it. See for yourself... No hype........just weather talk. 

Give it a try for yourself:

"OVERVIEW: THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED/PHASED SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS ON TUE...RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH...
WHICH WILL ASSUME A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT TUE NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND LIFTS NE TO THE
DELMARVA AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY 06-12Z WED. SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 12-18Z TUE IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ IN VICINITY OF A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS (8 MB/6-HR) APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN THIS
TIME FRAME. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MID/LATE TUE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
APPROACH THE MORE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE AND THE
INTENSIFYING SFC LOW RAPIDLY `JUMPS` OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST. RAPID
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT MID/LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: DIFFICULT TEMP FCST. HIGHS TUE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION TUE AFT/EVE...AND EVAP
COOLING IN ASSOC/W ANY PRECIP...ESP NORTH/NNE OF THE TRIANGLE.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S NW TO MID/UPPER 50S IN
THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVE BY VERY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOWER/MID TEENS (FAR NW) TO UPPER TEENS /NEAR 20F/ FAR SE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC DUE TO STRONG DPVA AND RAPID/PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT
(RESULTING IN STEEP H85-H7 LAPSE RATES AND PERHAPS VERY MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN 21-00Z) COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA SW
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NC. EXPECT A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL NC...RANGING FROM 0.15-0.20" NEAR THE VA BORDER
IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NE COASTAL PLAIN TO A TRACE IN PORTIONS
OF THE SANDHILLS AND FAR SW PIEDMONT...WITH PERHAPS 0.07-0.12" IN
THE TRIANGLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE /AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH/
AND RESULTING EFFECTS ON THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS
AND DURATION IN CENTRAL NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO LIKELY (60-70%) FROM THE TRIANGLE N/NE WITH 20-50%
FROM THE SC BORDER NORTH TOWARD THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR AND 50-60% IN
THE TRIAD.

PTYPE CONCERNS: THIS IS A NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT SETUP IN CENTRAL NC
W/REGARD TO DETERMINING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE INITIALLY...THOUGH LIKELY BECOMING
A MIX AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-
03Z AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT THE RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (~1") IN THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD THE VA BORDER...WITH PERHAPS ISOLD ACCUM
POTENTIAL AS MUCH AS 2" IF A HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP AND PERSISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ACCUM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT...WITH PERHAPS A TRACE-DUSTING IN VICINITY OF THE
HWY 64 CORRIDOR FROM RALEIGH WESTWARD. WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW...THERE IS A CONCERN THAT SOME OR MUCH OF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS
WILL OCCUR AS RAIN OR AS LIGHT NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN THIS
SETUP...ACCUMULATION WILL VERY LIKELY DEPEND ON RATES/DURATION...
ASSUMING PRECIP OF SUFFICIENT INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY IS EVEN
PRESENT ONCE THERMAL PROFILES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW. SNOW-
LIQUID RATIOS WILL RAPIDLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE
LOW/MID LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL...AND THIS WILL ALSO BE A COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. GIVEN THAT WATCH/WARNING
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...AND THAT SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS W/REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS/LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT AND NE COASTAL
PLAIN IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. -VINCENT"

Now.............can you read that? Maybe you can...and maybe you can't. I can. And, I like VINCENT but I don't think he knows it..unless he's reading my blog.

Why? A certain note of honesty...  read the "salient points" from above... 

"TEMPERATURES: DIFFICULT TEMP FCST."

"PTYPE CONCERNS: THIS IS A NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT SETUP IN CENTRAL NC

W/REGARD TO DETERMINING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS."

" GIVEN THAT WATCH/WARNING

CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...AND THAT SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS W/REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS/LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT AND NE COASTAL
PLAIN IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. -VINCENT"

This is when the NHC says things like "LIKELY" or "SHOULD" or "A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELING PACKAGE" when discussing Hurricanes.

Bottom Line is that until it starts to snow or after the  next forecast comes in they aren't sure exactly how much snow we will get here in the borderland of the Winter Storms. The fronts come down...do a dipping sort of tango dance step and then they bounce back up and take a fast right turn out to sea. If the front is stronger than expected it pushes through and Raleigh gets snow. If not...we get rain, wintry mix, snow flurries and probably some Black Ice for the morning commute. 

Virginia... West Virginia... DC... Maryland... and all the way up the East Coast where my kids are going to be complaining about the snow tomorrow on Facebook in their status updates are going to get a strong winter storm. 

The bigger problem for this part of the Piedmont is the frigid cold temperatures that will follow the small amount of much desired snow by the snow nuts like me... I'm pretty sure I will see enough snow to at least maybe cover the warm ground from today's warm temps in the low 60s.. However, the real problem is the ice and what follows....

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

...A PAIR OF DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL ENVELOP CENTRAL
NC MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN TWO SEPARATE 24 HOUR OR GREATER
PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...

That's cold.... really cold. Maybe I should have gone back with the kids to Miami today....but I didn't. And, you know why??? Because I was hoping to see snow :) Can see Miami anytime.... snow only comes a few months of year in these parts and some years it doesn't show it's face at all. 

I'll be back tomorrow to see how the morning models may have changed ... and to see what sort of wintry precept and how much will actually have fallen..

At the local Kroger they are betting on the locals to believe the worst and rush to the store to buy milk. 

And..................shovels, firewood... 

Time will tell........

As for me watching the winter links on www.spaghettimodels.com and it's saying.. "SNOW" is in my forecast :)

Stay tuned... 

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Looking forward to speaking in New Orleans this coming March on a Riverboat.. as my son says "sweet"  :)

Read all about it... click on the link... 

http://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register/event?oeidk=a07e7b3zea3f5cdb355&llr=8wkyw4jab

SEMINARS TO ATTEND
Keynote Address
Bobbi Storm - Lecturer, writer and weather blogger for Hurricane Harbor
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com