Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Snow in New Orleans? Is the Nam Cray? Cray?

Is the NAM Forecast Model Cray Cray? Maybe ... but forecasting snow and the type of Winter Precipitation you get in one particular area 3 days out is way more difficult it seems than forecasting a Category 4 Hurricane in the Atlantic going WNW...

The European and GFS Model have not been talking to each other and differ widely on scenarios. Most forecasters look to the NAM in the short term and it keeps spitting out the possibility of snow so far south that they could see snow flakes on Bourbon Street. And... anyone driving the I-10 from Nola to Jax would have to deal with winter weather.  There is also some talk of an Ice Storm.

In Raleigh which is the Mason Dixie line of Winter Storms it seems... the talk is the snow will be East of us or as we say up here..."Down East"  Maybe..

Everything is a maybe. They refused to talk on the threat of Winter Weather on the News until today, however in Charlotte they have been talking on it. Today we are at 20% of a chance for snow.. maybe.

I'm speaking in New Orleans on a River Boat this coming March and I had been wondering what the weather would be like ...considering sometimes Winter goes late... but how late that far south? Hmnmnn

This is what we call in the weather business a "funky year" or as Joe Bastardi said on Twitter yesterday:

Ocean enhancing snow for Long Island. Lets face it, it wants to snow this year

Well said... it just wants to snow this year on Long Island. It also seems to want to snow Down South.

And, it never rains in Southern California. That, by the way, it is NOT true... when it rains it pours. I lived there one of those years and our ceiling leaked and then caved in. My baby daughter came in to wake me and my husband and announced, "Look it's raining in your bedroom" and the hole got bigger and bigger until we ended up sleeping in the living room and moving around the corner to a less cute Hollywood Bungalow and into a newer apartment building. When we looked outside water was running down hill covering the street almost up to the curb. When it rains.. it pours. When it doesn't...the mountains catch fire and burn.

And, speaking of burning there is a No Burn order for Raleigh this weekend as the fire danger is high.

There's a lot of buzz and discussion on this coming Polar Vortex Intrusion and when I say "discussion" I mean the GFS and the EURO fans are duking it out online.

Only time will tell.

If it does snow in New Orleans... it will melt fast :)

If it does snow in Savannah or Jacksonville... kids will love it ... parents will complain.

If it snows in Raleigh.. REAL SNOW.. in the daytime snow.. I'll be soooo soooo excited like a little girl seeing Santa Claus for the first time sitting in a sleigh on real snow :)

Come on NAM.. inch your way back up a bit and make me a believer...

Meanwhile I got place to go today... the sky is blue... and it's sunny and it's 42 degrees and this is as warm as it's going to get this week so going to get out and enjoy it while I can..

Besos Bobbi I have Carolina on my mind, but I keep hearing jazzy tunes in my head from an old Nola CD someone made me ;) a long time ago. And, I know winter only lasts so long... right??

(Tell the truth you thought I would play Willie right???  See...sometimes I'll surprise you...)


At 4:53 AM, Anonymous David Swank said...

Mariposa Insurance Services is looking forward to your keynote address at the Mariposa CAT Conference in New Orleans. Adjusters and weather groupies of Hurricane Harbor are welcome to attend. Check out the link

David Swank
Founder & CEO
Mariposa Insurance Services


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