Next Southern Snow Storm. Atlanta Are You Ready? Carolinas? (reading between the lines)

Seems Atlanta is in the cross hairs again...........but the good news is that supposedly the Mayor has a plan. Hopefully, there is time to implement it and either way I imagine no one will venture far from home this time around.  Then again... people thought driving fifteen minutes to their kid's school would be easy and they'd be home real soon...

http://www.atlantaga.gov/index.aspx?page=672&recordid=2589

Either way Atlanta will be the canary in the coal mine with this snow storm before it moves on to other Piedmont towns like Charlotte and Raleigh.

Raleigh is a lot like Miami in ways in that you are never supposed to say SNOW or ICE just as no Miami Wxrman wants to ever say "that hurricane looks like it's going to make a beeline for Miami"

It's called "wishcasting" in our world. Either you are wishing the storm in..or wishing it away.

Raleigh has sold itself as a great place for Northerners to move down to where there are seasons, cheap cost of living, low crime.. jobs and really "don't have much snow" . . .

People will tell you "oh it never snows here..." or "it doesn't stick" so you are given the impression you can leave your snow shovel back home in Pittsburgh.  And, you can ... as Ace Hardware sells them as does Kroger as soon as snow is in the forecast.

And, often it doesn't stick..that is true. But, you must have been sleeping or passing notes in Geography class if you missed the part about moving on down to Florida if you want to say goodbye to SNOW.

So the local weather people are more mum than a flower seller.. in their forecasts. The girl last night couldn't even get the words "snow" out but she did point out that the temperature was currently dropping faster than the forecast (giving her huge points on honesty) and to watch what happens later this week and stay tuned.

I'm a little concerned as they have yet to be spot on with a local forecast for days. They said Saturday would be a wash out and there was a possibility of some snow flakes.  Not a flake or raindrop fell... the sun came out.  My Accuweather APP kept mocking me as it showed snow and the sun was shining. They said it would be sunny and on the warm side today and there was a bright sun on my phone. They took the smiling sun out of the forecast before sunrise and it's gray and colder than they forecasted. How can I trust a local forecast for a "developing winter storm" when they can't get the daily hour by hour forecast right even 12 hours out?

Well...  you go "wide" as any good reference librarian will tell you.

Charlotte NC has a very good, accurate weather person and he is forecasting Raleigh to get as much as 4 inches if not more and/or some ice and also says to pay attention to the changing forecast.

He is on Twitter & Facebook so you can follow him there if you live outside his viewing area..

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 

https://www.facebook.com/wxbradWCNC

He's good... giving more info on Raleigh than the locals who are watching & waiting..

Let's move up the coast to the Mid-Atlantic...

Back at the ranch in Raleigh...the source everyone goes to for Weather locally.. 

(i like abc and channel 14 too... anyway)

NWS is "confident" that moisture will spread... 

meanwhile they said it would rain in Saturday..didn't

said it would be sunny today.. isn't

how confident are they ??

that said I like the way VINCENT writes the discussion

Worth noting that on this day in history in 1973 ... 

...Wilmington NC got over 10 inches of snow.

I know what I was doing then... thinking on February of 1971.. 

but i digress.........

The point here is to prepare for the worst

hope for the best

and hunker down and stay off the roads

if you live in the South & snow is forecast!!

As for my bottom line..

I watch the forecast and the water vapor loop.. 

Not a good sign that the entire forecast has been changed.. highlighted in red.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

Feel free to sift through the discussion above.. I'm showing the $ALIENT parts below

".SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...

THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE RIDDLED BY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE KEY FEATURES THAT MAY LEAD TO WINTRY
WEATHER OVER AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL NC.  A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY/MONDAY
AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
US. THE INTERACTION AND POSSIBLE PHASING OF THESE WAVES WILL...TO A
LARGE DEGREE...DICTATE PRECIP EVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND COASTAL
CAROLINA."

Note they are very uncertain...

"BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM NOSE AROUND THE NC/SC

BORDER AND MIXING OF PTYPES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTRODUCES TOO MUCH
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO SPECULATE ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH OF QPF ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED."

Note how many times the word "uncertainty" is used..............................................

"AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY

TO SIFT THROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS
STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE."

Note graphics show a vastly different story from what is being shown by forecasters in Charlotte with regard for Raleigh. Who do you believe??

Note there is a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the area that you would not know by the overly conservative graphics shown above.

".DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS STILL A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE PRECISE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE

URGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES."

Note the use of the U words...

URGED

UNCERTAINTY... 

Note it is NOT Partly Sunny.....this is as sunny as it has gotten out my kitchen window...

NOT sunny...........


I do understand how hard it is to predict where a Low Pressure system will go that has not formed yet however.......................if we have to be solid and on the money with a 5 day Cone in Tropical Forecasting... a 1 day forecast for sun or rain should be reliable in North Carolina. 


From http://www.spaghettimodels.com/






3 days out...



Note I am going with my tropical weather buddies to show me a winter forecast..


Join in the winter discussion here on Mike's Weather Page on Facebook!https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdates

Only time will tell on this one but I think WRAL and the WXR Forecasters in Raleigh will have to wake up and smell the coffee and deal directly with making a forecast and stop telling us how difficult and uncertain the models are being. We have this with tropical weather too and no one wants to hear it's difficult... they want a forecast and a good one. 


As wonderful as it is to watch the models... we want a forecast by weather men and women who will take the models and not be afraid to give a forecast. I know I went thru a period where all I wanted to do was watch the models..........read the models.. some years they have a problem getting along and coming to a consensus. At a time like that you have to go with who you trust and know from experience gives a good forecast. Brad does in Charlotte...others do as well. 


If the NHC has to be perfect 5 Days out.... the NWS should be able to be perfect at least 2 or 3 days out! My thoughts... it's way damper today than it was on Saturday. It's damper and colder and I do think it will snow. We might have to deal with ICE as well. There's a feel in the air of a storm coming. It might not show up yet on the radar... but it will. Who gets the worst of it? That we will know soon. I'll be back with more as the models become more "uncertain" and the forecasters decide which way the wind will blow and how much snow we may or may not get!





Besos Bobbi


Ps.. .Bottom line... 


Buy eggs, bread, milk, almond milk, coke, beer or whatever floats your boat today. If you are not snowed in on Wednesday.. make French Toast for dinner and get over it.