Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

State of Emergency Issued Across the Deep South...

State of Emergency has been issued across the Deep South from Louisiana to the Carolinas.

It's getting dicey out there and in a lot of places that did not expect to be dealing with snow that moved in so fast. Atlanta was not forecast to have the mess that it is dealing with... rush hour tonight for those who have not left work yet will be treacherous and word has it some of TWC's own employees are having problems getting to work. Hmnnnn

Forecasts are currently being updated based on new model runs and all show a heavier snow event that previously forecast. Again who gets it and where the snow falls is the 64 Trillion Dollar Question!

And, a lot of this comes down to CLIMO vs the Ensemble Forecast Package.
If there is a busted forecast in some will be because forecasters went with the models.
In snow forecasts like hurricane forecasts it's the same old story.
Despite an inner "gut feeling" forecasters need to verify their forecast package with hard data.

For instance about 12 hours ago we began to see hints that the snow would fall further to the NW than previous forecast models showed earlier in the week.

If this verifies you have to give it to individual forecasters who put the possibility into today's forecast.

CLIMO would like to prove that the threat for record snowfall amounts along the coastal beach towns was wrong. CLIMO would bring the snow in through the Piedmont more than the Coastal Plain. That may be happening as it is currently snowing in Atlanta and some winter weather has become a problem in the Triad. The Triad, Winston Salem and Greensboro and High Point were NOT supposed to it in this morning. The "cut off line" for the snow was supposed to be JUST to the WEST of Raleigh. So far...that would show a bit of a busted forecast.

CLIMO would say that New Orleans gets some sleet and freezing rain as well as Wilmington with only a light dusting of snow on the beach at Wrightsville.  So far the forecast has been moved in real time more in line with CLIMO.

The models insisted the heaviest snow would be down in the Sandhills ...Fayetteville and there was very little talk of the Virginia NC border.

The first hint began last night that the model ensembles may have overblown the beach snow and the lower totals inland in areas that CLIMO would support.

CLIMO is the total historic patterns vs any one given rare forecast for a "Once in a Century Storm" and in the end.........only time will tell.

Wolfpack Weather does a good job of covering the land of the Pack... NC STATE or as my daughter just calls it "STATE"

Don't let your weather app fool you, snow is not expected to begin until 3-4pm

Greg Fishel suggested that the models were hinting at more snow in the Raleigh area and less in Fayetteville. People in the "Triangle" believe in Greg Fishel...although there are always those few who were burned back when and love to bring up past random mistakes.

There are a lot of disbelievers in the Raleigh area. Most people I spoke to today...despite going shopping at the grocery NOT believe it's going to snow. Most said "a dusting" and made fun of all the hype and hoopla. Note NWS is reminding people it IS coming......while others believe only Greg Fishel and Greg said it's they believe Raleigh 

Possibly why the NWS keeps posting information about the snow being on it's way... as well as WRAL.

The Deep South is shutting down this morning. Schools are closed across a good part of Dixie. Schools are closed in Raleigh today and will most likely be closed tomorrow and possibly to quote Shakespeare that would be three tomorrows. Depends on how much snow falls...however in places like Raleigh you can usually figure the city shuts down one day per each inch of snow. Also depends how fast it warms up and the snow melts. I know they have snow plows here..somewhere....but they rarely use them.

Of course being New Orleans the restaurants say they are staying open. Okay... let's see how that works out. Very New Orleans. Then again in Raleigh the restaurants close in the middle of the afternoon. Sort of ironic don't you think that the trial of Ray Nagin is being postponed for the Winter Storm of the Century in New Orleans.

Part of the problem of forecating now down in the Delta area is the many different types of problems that can arise from the diverse geography of the area.

Note you have bayous, beaches and  low country as well as metropolitan areas.

Note the specific discussion out of the NWS for that area.


First off the POLAR PLUNGE is coming fast and furious from the frozen Arctic:

Then... it moves into the Deep South...

Put it all together and take a look at the Water Vapor Loop we love to use 
during the Hurricane Season...put it in motion ...

And, then we look at the radar...

Look at that swath of pink moving through the Deep South... that ain't PINK pink... that's Icy Pink darlings... that's ice not snow. Now to be honest as a girl from Miami I'm excited to see anything fall from the ground that is not liquid precipitation .....but it makes a big, huge difference if this turns into an Ice Storm or sleet turning over to snow.

Look at the sky here in Raleigh........there's snow in those clouds...and it's about to start to fall..

Mark Sudduth is out in the storm today in North Carolina. He'll be streaming live all day so save this link and check back as often as you'd like. I know I will...

Personally I went out this morning to talk to the people... and see what they were thinking. Paul the manager of the store in the Triangle Town area had a talk with me today about snow and the locals living here. He's a nice guy... a real, rare local North Carolinian living in a place filled with transplants. Seems everyone this morning is talking about the snow.

In Panera there was a rush on people stocking up this morning on bread. Seems Sourdough Bread sells well just before a winter storm. Think about it... a hot cup of soup and a nice thick slab of sourdough bread just about hits the spot on a cold winter day as you sit but the window in Raleigh watching the snow fall. Paul things we will get about 3 inches. That was the general figure given today. Paul's wife also likes sourdough bread so he may be a bit partial and a good husband.

I did notice people were coming in and taking out their favorite breads and snacks. I had some oatmeal to warm up with cinnamon and sugar :)

Down the road at the Harris Teeter the store and the parking lot was packed with people shopping "just in case" and looking totally annoyed at the rare long lines. That said... they were not putting down their milk and leaving. I haven't seen that may people in lines since the last time I saw people shopping for Thanksgiving or a Hurricane in Miami...

Mind you the plow truck brining the parking lot may have scared any shoppers into not being deterred by the long lines...

And as the saying goes... go shopping for eggs, milk and bread may be holding true today..

(some disbeliever told me you are supposed to make French Toast with all the leftover eggs and bread you didn't need when it the forecast was wrong and it never snowed...)

see she has bread, eggs and the guy behind her has... milk...
May I add these were the most unhappy shoppers I've seen today... 
I suppose they were the "just in case" shoppers...happier shoppers were buying beer...

Many dog lovers did not forget their pooches in the buying frenzy...

And most shoppers were buying fresh produce, poulty and paper goods.. well as good Porter Beer :)

And keep watching... the snow is on it's way. Atlanta is a mess...Atlanta was not supposed to be a mess.
And that would imply a somewhat busted forecast. Atlanta was supposed to be on the "EDGE" but it no longer seems so EDGY and now it's in the middle of this messy, winter storm. The snow came in faster and heavier and if this trend continues there may have been an over reliance on ensemble models rather than tempering them with CLIMO.
In Raleigh it's about to start snowing if you can believe the radar. Oddly my husband says it "smells like snow" and he NEVER says that ever. Growing up in Upstate NY he knows about snow. He went skiing after school like kids in Miami go surging and apparently he drove around with bricks in his car for traction in the snow and ice. I am sooo glad I grew up in Miami worrying on what to wear to the beach after school :) and I am just as happy to be here now waiting for the snow :)  I love snow...
The Governor is speaking now as it has become apparent that many people do not believe it really will snow more than a light dusting and again...the new models show that Raleigh and many parts of NC will get more than just a dusting.

And the snow is on the way................

Obviously I've got Carolina on my mind as I'm living here...and somewhere in Carolina will be getting a whole lot of snow from this storm.
Will it be Fayetteville? Benson? Rocky Mount? (my $$ is on Rocky Mount getting a whole lot of snow..) New Bern? TWC has set up in a few different cities along the snow and ice line.. a few in NC.
I'll be back later with real snow totals and the more serious side of this Winter Storm.
My advice.... stay off the roads if you can. Hunker down. Watch TWC if you get it and if you don't watch your local news if you are in it or ... watch Weather Nation... Watch what you got! Cook what you got! Relax.. it may be called "LEON" but it is in fact called WINTER.
Good advice from a local Twitter :)
New Raleigh Snow Tips: 1. Go sledding. 2. Build a snowman. 3. Have fun.
Besos Bobbi
Ps... I'll add stay safe and have fun ;) 


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