Changes in Tropical Storm Karen

..KAREN DISORGANIZED...
...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED...

As I have been saying the timing was off with the forecasts and now rather than Karen being in NC on Monday she is forecast to still be further to the South in Georgia and she moves slowly towards landfall as they are going with the slower, weaker solution. This forecast package has the new data from the Gulf stream Jet and from Doppler radar inside the storm. We basically have a better feeling for what is really going on with Karen.



A lot of changes happened today over the last 12 hours. Often the sat images don't change that drastically.

12 Hours Ago:

Currently:

The front known as Atlas is moving fast and sweeping down now... the dry air over the Bahamas and East Cuba now have pop up showers and more moisture. The much expected smaller trough didn't do much to grab Karen and we are now waiting for Atlas to arrive and scoop her up and carry her off to happily ever after in Weather Land. 

Note ALL Hurricane Watches and Warnings are discontinued. The most anyone is forecast to deal with is Tropical Storm weather.

LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Notice in the top left corner of this loop you can see the clouds beginning to move onto the scene that fly out in front of Atlas. 

Her convection is still to the right, though she is trying to wrap it around and it's not moving as East away from the center. IF Karen sits and stalls out a bit over a warm pocket of moisture she can intensify rapidly as her "exposed center" is well defined and really spinning.

Look at Karen spinning South of Grand Isle, LA.

GFS ensemble has some funky tracks. Also remember what I said the other day about her coming in on the Southern Edge of the cone allowing her to get to warm water faster ...that may be happening. Models are doing funky things. Note the furthest cities to the North now expected to MAYBE get weather from the remnants of Karen are in NC south of the Outer Banks.

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)

Tracks:

Hmmmnnn...

There has been talk that this front won't affect North Carolina much except for a temperature differential.

We will see on Monday if it grabs Karen and runs away with her or drops her down in the Atlantic while going off to do it's own thing.

Other models:



There is also some concern that she may fall apart in the Gulf of Mexico, though its more likely she will sputter off towards land fall and her trek across the SE.

Discussion from the NHC

 "IN PARTICULAR THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH ITS FORECAST OF KAREN
AFTER DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET...WHICH SHOWED 200-MB
WINDS WEST OF KAREN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WERE
INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z ANALYSIS. AFTER 24 HOURS...KAREN COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT EXPECTED. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT KAREN COULD BECOME
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKEN."

Their confidence remains low it should be noted.

" THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED

TOWARD THE SLOWER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS FASTER AND TO THE
LEFT OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AFTER 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
OF THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS
ALONG THE COAST...REMAINS LOW."

A last thing to worry on is where her tail will set up and the orientation of it which could make a big difference as to who gets the strongest weather after she makes landfall. Things like this set up in real time and there are no forecasts for that. 

Remember, the forecast for Karen is only for the center of her circulation.. not her misplaced weather, not her storm surge or her tail which will drag tropical moisture up across Florida and Georgia.

Her storm surge could affect parts of NW Florida and even to a minor degree along the West Coast Beaches.

As for Atlas...it has already produced record early snow falls. 

Keep watching...what a drama... 

Blizzards

Tropical Weather

Oh My...what next?

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi Storm 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PMgmgDq2Fo