Changes in Tropical Storm Karen
..KAREN DISORGANIZED... ...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED...As I have been saying the timing was off with the forecasts and now rather than Karen being in NC on Monday she is forecast to still be further to the South in Georgia and she moves slowly towards landfall as they are going with the slower, weaker solution. This forecast package has the new data from the Gulf stream Jet and from Doppler radar inside the storm. We basically have a better feeling for what is really going on with Karen.
A lot of changes happened today over the last 12 hours. Often the sat images don't change that drastically.
12 Hours Ago:
LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
There has been talk that this front won't affect North Carolina much except for a temperature differential.
We will see on Monday if it grabs Karen and runs away with her or drops her down in the Atlantic while going off to do it's own thing.
There is also some concern that she may fall apart in the Gulf of Mexico, though its more likely she will sputter off towards land fall and her trek across the SE.
Discussion from the NHC
"IN PARTICULAR THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH ITS FORECAST OF KAREN AFTER DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET...WHICH SHOWED 200-MB WINDS WEST OF KAREN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WERE INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z ANALYSIS. AFTER 24 HOURS...KAREN COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT KAREN COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKEN."
Their confidence remains low it should be noted.
" THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE SLOWER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AFTER 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...REMAINS LOW."
A last thing to worry on is where her tail will set up and the orientation of it which could make a big difference as to who gets the strongest weather after she makes landfall. Things like this set up in real time and there are no forecasts for that.
Remember, the forecast for Karen is only for the center of her circulation.. not her misplaced weather, not her storm surge or her tail which will drag tropical moisture up across Florida and Georgia.
Her storm surge could affect parts of NW Florida and even to a minor degree along the West Coast Beaches.
As for Atlas...it has already produced record early snow falls.
Keep watching...what a drama...
Oh My...what next?
Sweet Tropical Dreams