Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 03, 2013

60 MPH Tropical Storm Karen... Trapped in the Gulf of Mexico..Where Does She Make Landfall?



Track for Karen from the NHC shows her going through Mobile Bay (as I said yesterday it might logically) and then... she keeps on going and going and going all the way inland to NJ and PA on the 5th Day approaching New York by land......... Note..should this storm take a more southerly track on be on the south edge of the cone she could turn right with the front and go east young girl and end up off the coast of the Outer Banks moving NE.. stay tuned.




A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.


Interestingly the wind probs for this storm go as far NORTHEAST as HYANNIS PORT...

Karen according to the EURO models is going to battle it's way into the Northern Gulf and fall apart in some land falling scenario around LA because of extremely negative conditions due to the closeness of the front.

The GFS model CONSISTENTLY shows Karen intensifying and making landfall further to the right in the Florida Panhandle as a strong TS/Hurricane.

Weak TS falling apart vs a Strong Tropical Storm intensifying into Hurricane Status.

Which is it and what do you do if you are the forecasters at the NHC?

You know those online showdowns where they take the iPhone and the Galaxy s4 and they put them side by side and they compare which turns on faster? That's what is going on with the two most favored models and the meteorologists who love them.

The Euro which is by many the "better" model kept it weak and didn't see last night that it would become a Tropical Storm with 60 MPH winds intensifying this morning. The NHC waited on naming it Karen when all the satellite images showed us that she was indeed already a Tropical Depression and most likely a Tropical Storm. Reports from Recon initially showed it had Tropical Storm force winds and a closed center, but when then....they said "well it's a broad center" and "not really sustained winds" and there was a disconnect between the original raw data and discussion and the final package put out explaining how it wasn't but might be at any moment.

This morning with more HARD data and longer discussion and quickly before an eye pops out... she became Karen with 60 MPH winds. That's akin to a baby being born and getting up off the delivery table and walking to the bathroom already potty trained. Neat trick if you can do it .. but life doesn't work that way.

She was Karen last night ... in an improving environment despite reports of the problematic environment and more to the NORTH than the original forecast for where her given location was supposed to be.

When things don't work out the way they are expected to there are a lot of discussions and re-evaluation of data and well the NHC likes to get it right...to be sure. Hard to always be sure because weather is fluid and the truth is Tropical Storms do things like this ALL THE TIME especially at that location.

The GFS won the shoot out or the show down whatever it is called and the NHC is leaning towards the GFS solution. They are erring on the side of caution. Good. They should have upgraded her at 5 AM as it was obviously at Midnight she was dancing in warmer waters and calmer seas ...as happy as can be.

Hey, it happens. Let's move on. So they sent the planes ... always good to get better data from the planes and that data will be used in the next model runs to get a better picture of where she will go and how fast she will intensify. And, that really is the bigger question here.

Is she Hurricane Karen at landfall or not... and where is landfall?

This is more than just about LANDFALL because Karen's track takes her inland and then inland and then she keeps on going through the SE up across the Appalachians..or the Piedmont of the Carolinas and then all the way up into NY and NE.  How possible is that? Well, we have a lot of models to watch from here til then and Karen and the approaching Cold Front will tell that story later.

Watch the evolution on this longer loop... simply beautiful...the past and the present:



What do we know NOW?

LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES






Fantastic amount of data online to study and a new set of models coming in soon. I'll be back later with more data.

www.spaghettimodels.com covers the tropics from every angle it's amazingly a beautiful site. Mike does such a bang up job and yeah that is the only way I can sat it this morning. Great job really gathering the different sites that we all want to see and putting it all together in an easy, aesthetically beautiful format that works well. Let's put it this way.. if Spaghetti Models was a Cell Phone I'd buy it immediately!




The best thing to look at is really KAREN as watching her on the satellite imagery really tells the story. I said this last night on Twitter. You can ooh and aww all you want at every model run but sometimes you got to watch the storm on satellite and know in your gut what really is.  She obviously had found her groove and probably reorganized under the stronger convection and took a new direction and once well stacked with her lowest pressure underneath her highest convection and the dry air disappearing she took off like a girl in search of fun in the Big City after a long hard semester in summer school.

I'll be back later...well sooner rather than later with more information.

For now these are the ever changing models:





Besos Bobbi

PS...

Again look at ALL of the cities that are forecast to equally have a 34% chance of feeling the winds of Karen. Note models yesterday began to show this storm running the whole coast after it traverses the SE and slams into the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

NHC INFO


HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   1(24)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  12(18)   4(22)   X(22)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)  14(27)   3(30)   X(30)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)  11(26)   3(29)   X(29)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)  20(36)   2(38)   X(38)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   X(24)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  16(21)   8(29)   1(30)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PENSACOLA FL   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  15(23)  26(49)   3(52)   1(53)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   1(17)   X(17)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   4( 4)  18(22)  21(43)  14(57)   1(58)   X(58)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  11(21)   1(22)   X(22)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)  24(45)   3(48)   X(48)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)  20(44)   2(46)   X(46)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

STENNIS MS     34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)  16(38)   2(40)   X(40)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

BURAS LA       34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  20(37)  14(51)   X(51)   1(52)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   9(10)  41(51)  14(65)   6(71)   1(72)   X(72)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)  13(33)   4(37)   1(38)   X(38)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)  12(31)   1(32)   X(32)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  10(27)   5(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   7(16)   1(17)   X(17)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MERIDA MX      34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COZUMEL MX     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
NHC DISCUSSION

TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE
INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE
STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT
FORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST
SPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER
EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD
LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST. 

GIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1300Z 22.0N  87.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 23.4N  88.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 25.4N  88.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 27.0N  88.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 28.3N  88.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 31.0N  87.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

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