60 MPH Tropical Storm Karen... Trapped in the Gulf of Mexico..Where Does She Make Landfall?
Track for Karen from the NHC shows her going through Mobile Bay (as I said yesterday it might logically) and then... she keeps on going and going and going all the way inland to NJ and PA on the 5th Day approaching New York by land......... Note..should this storm take a more southerly track on be on the south edge of the cone she could turn right with the front and go east young girl and end up off the coast of the Outer Banks moving NE.. stay tuned.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
Interestingly the wind probs for this storm go as far NORTHEAST as HYANNIS PORT...
Karen according to the EURO models is going to battle it's way into the Northern Gulf and fall apart in some land falling scenario around LA because of extremely negative conditions due to the closeness of the front.
The GFS model CONSISTENTLY shows Karen intensifying and making landfall further to the right in the Florida Panhandle as a strong TS/Hurricane.
Weak TS falling apart vs a Strong Tropical Storm intensifying into Hurricane Status.
Which is it and what do you do if you are the forecasters at the NHC?
You know those online showdowns where they take the iPhone and the Galaxy s4 and they put them side by side and they compare which turns on faster? That's what is going on with the two most favored models and the meteorologists who love them.
The Euro which is by many the "better" model kept it weak and didn't see last night that it would become a Tropical Storm with 60 MPH winds intensifying this morning. The NHC waited on naming it Karen when all the satellite images showed us that she was indeed already a Tropical Depression and most likely a Tropical Storm. Reports from Recon initially showed it had Tropical Storm force winds and a closed center, but when then....they said "well it's a broad center" and "not really sustained winds" and there was a disconnect between the original raw data and discussion and the final package put out explaining how it wasn't but might be at any moment.
This morning with more HARD data and longer discussion and quickly before an eye pops out... she became Karen with 60 MPH winds. That's akin to a baby being born and getting up off the delivery table and walking to the bathroom already potty trained. Neat trick if you can do it .. but life doesn't work that way.
She was Karen last night ... in an improving environment despite reports of the problematic environment and more to the NORTH than the original forecast for where her given location was supposed to be.
When things don't work out the way they are expected to there are a lot of discussions and re-evaluation of data and well the NHC likes to get it right...to be sure. Hard to always be sure because weather is fluid and the truth is Tropical Storms do things like this ALL THE TIME especially at that location.
The GFS won the shoot out or the show down whatever it is called and the NHC is leaning towards the GFS solution. They are erring on the side of caution. Good. They should have upgraded her at 5 AM as it was obviously at Midnight she was dancing in warmer waters and calmer seas ...as happy as can be.
Hey, it happens. Let's move on. So they sent the planes ... always good to get better data from the planes and that data will be used in the next model runs to get a better picture of where she will go and how fast she will intensify. And, that really is the bigger question here.
Is she Hurricane Karen at landfall or not... and where is landfall?
This is more than just about LANDFALL because Karen's track takes her inland and then inland and then she keeps on going through the SE up across the Appalachians..or the Piedmont of the Carolinas and then all the way up into NY and NE. How possible is that? Well, we have a lot of models to watch from here til then and Karen and the approaching Cold Front will tell that story later.
Watch the evolution on this longer loop... simply beautiful...the past and the present:
What do we know NOW?
LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Fantastic amount of data online to study and a new set of models coming in soon. I'll be back later with more data.
www.spaghettimodels.com covers the tropics from every angle it's amazingly a beautiful site. Mike does such a bang up job and yeah that is the only way I can sat it this morning. Great job really gathering the different sites that we all want to see and putting it all together in an easy, aesthetically beautiful format that works well. Let's put it this way.. if Spaghetti Models was a Cell Phone I'd buy it immediately!
The best thing to look at is really KAREN as watching her on the satellite imagery really tells the story. I said this last night on Twitter. You can ooh and aww all you want at every model run but sometimes you got to watch the storm on satellite and know in your gut what really is. She obviously had found her groove and probably reorganized under the stronger convection and took a new direction and once well stacked with her lowest pressure underneath her highest convection and the dry air disappearing she took off like a girl in search of fun in the Big City after a long hard semester in summer school.
I'll be back later...well sooner rather than later with more information.
For now these are the ever changing models:
Besos Bobbi
PS...
Again look at ALL of the cities that are forecast to equally have a 34% chance of feeling the winds of Karen. Note models yesterday began to show this storm running the whole coast after it traverses the SE and slams into the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
NHC INFO
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 4(23) 1(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 4(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 14(27) 3(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 3(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 20(36) 2(38) X(38) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 8(29) 1(30) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 26(49) 3(52) 1(53) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 21(43) 14(57) 1(58) X(58) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 24(45) 3(48) X(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 20(44) 2(46) X(46) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 16(38) 2(40) X(40) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 20(37) 14(51) X(51) 1(52) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 9(10) 41(51) 14(65) 6(71) 1(72) X(72) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 12(31) 1(32) X(32) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 10(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NHC DISCUSSION
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT FORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST SPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1300Z 22.0N 87.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:40 AM
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