Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 30, 2013

Tropical Storm Jerry Forms in Atlantic... Will Karen Form in the Carib?

Tropical Storm Jerry has formed in the Atlantic from the TD 11 that I like to think of as Oceans 11 as its staying out in the ocean obviously... looping in circles for days before eventually going out to sea.

Doesn't look very exciting but Jerry is there... out there.........far away....going nowhere fast.

There is your...ummmm bubble gum cone...

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

She's not coming back to the USA... though she may spin in circles for day before moving out to sea ...

In the Caribbean Sea there is a system that is very slowly coming together and which could stay weak and move tropical moisture north across Cuba and South Florida or... it can pull together and move up into the Gulf of Mexico and the move a variety of ways. The models this morning are backing off from the hard right turn they have been showing that would put Florida under the gun.

First it needs to separate itself from the trough it's been anchoring for days... and become a separate entity. There are signs this morning on the visible that may be happening.

Look to the left (West) of the blow up of convection and you will see a "dot" and a small circulation beginning to show itself. The shear there is blowing off the convection to the East.. so a simple look at one image does not give the whole story correctly.

See one picture makes you think the system is further to the north than it is:

Again the DOT that remains is where the center is and it is more visible on the VISIBLE (duh...) and the shear blows it off to the East and then NE...

AGAIN..................IF this doesn't form the system will moisture will flow up over South Florida.

If the system WRAPS the moisture will wrap around and that won't happen.The hard right scenario could happen ... just more models are taking it off to the old stomping grounds of 2013 and Tampico, Veracruz and the Bay of Campeache.

Too far away to say or even guess for now.

In color :)

Hey truth is once it's in the Gulf it could go anywhere, it's landlocked and it's not getting away like Jerry.

But, everything depends on timing ...and the main issue is the timing on formation and intensity.

The graph below shows that the timing is down the road still and a lot can change up the road as to steering currents if this takes the later rather than the sooner route.

Elsewhere there is a small low off the coast of Carolina... just off shore and a wave in the Atlantic.

Intensity model for Invest 97 is also below. Later I will discuss the very warm waters that Karen could travel across slowly IF she forms and gets the show on the road.

This is the Wilma time of everyone in South Florida pay attention even though odds this year would show her getting into the BOC but this is going to be OCTOBER not September and storms in October often have lots of tricks... and very few treats.

This is not 2005 and this is not going to be Wilma, but patterns repeat and it's more likely a storm will move North towards a front in a year like 2013 when there have been fronts dipping down. Oh.. but this week the fronts took a vacation didn't they???

Right now we are still playing with intensities for a Tropical Storm NOT a Hurricane. Not yet anyway.

As for this year... we are worrying on the Government Shut Down.. funny but the Tropical Atlantic has been shut down all season and I never got a vote on that neither... Just saying...............

What will October 2013 bring??

The 7 Day NWS Loop does not show a named system in the Gulf. It does show a cold front that moves down across South Florida and then becomes stationary across Central Florida. Not a great scenario IF anything forms in the Caribbean down the road..

So Bobbi Storm's Bottom Line...

Yes this could be Tropical Storm Karen...I mean they named Jerry... but it's not in a hurry and right now we will worry in South Florida more about the Miami Dolphins game.. (they are still undefeated so far... ) and thinking New Orleans will be thinking on football too tonight and not a possible tropical system named Karen.

Short term... check back here later for any updates.

Long term... something, somewhere will form in October and I think it's pretty sure we will get a named storm sometime this October named Karen. Is Karen forming in the Caribbean...a definite maybe.

So what happens now? .... check back later...

Where is she going to??.... wait until she forms before you buy any particular forecast package from anyone.

Besos Bobbi...

Ps... how come they don't name storms Evita ever? Afraid??
Weak seasons often end with strong storms... one last big firework display on the satellites.. it's not over until it's over and it's over usually after October. Unless there's a November storm ;)


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