October... 20% Yellow Cricle in Carib, TS Jerry ... October CLIMO

WELCOME TO OCTOBER IN THE TROPICS...



And the above image is Invest 97 in the Caribbean. Despite the weakness of this season's systems the Caribbean system shows up right on time according to CLIMO. Go figure.

In 2011 there was a similar system named Rina.. a much busier year but still in a similar place. Funny how people don't remember the ones who don't go all the way...  if they don't go to the distance we forget about them.

Here's an image of Rina down there in the Carib in October trying to come together...in 2011.



Some storms flare up fast, way too young and then flash out just as fast...

And, then she did it...late October and she became a Hurricane... a pretty one too.



Tracks took her towards South Florida...

Look at that pin point eye..




Excitement builds......................and then..................the cone goes funny...





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M9LnInBdNY&list=PL3DEAD3165C43E8D3&index=15


Next  thing you know she's slowing down... she's lost a little of that magic drive ... she's a fading star..

We all remember Hurricane Wilma... but we forget about storms like Rina... and yet... most October storms take a right turn somewhere. This is an unusual year and imagine it could play out not in accordance with CLIMO but....... doubt it.

A front is moving down and between the shear and the desire for Karen to merge and mingle and get absorbed into the stronger front would most likely be the scenario... if she becomes Karen at all. Not the best decision to get messed up with a big, bad front.. but what other options would she have?

Well....stay tuned.............because we just don't know and that is the beauty of tracking storms and studying them and writing about them.  We just don't know for sure...

Where do October storms in the Caribbean usually go? That we know..




October storms ...from an article in 2008...

IF Karen forms from Invest 97 and makes it to the BOC it would be a neat trick...then again this is the year for Trick or Treat in the BOC.

In other areas of the world... getting harder and harder to ignore that wave in the Atlantic. You can say over and over "everyone says the Atlantic is dead" but someone should tell that wave.



More tomorrow... Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm