Red Alert for Development for Invest 97... Looking Better on Visible. Recon going in...
Look at the SW region of this big area and that is where the center of the system that may be Karen over the new few days.
Wound up. Banding. Moving in mass vs a messy area of low pressure.
Note that it is sucking up warm moisture via it's long tail.
Note that the Gulf is not as dry as it was yesterday, meaning it could develop into a stronger system than previously thought.
Notice there is less shear. The tops of the convection on the North side are being blown of to the NNE towards South Florida, but the shear is lessening and the environment is not as dry as it was yesterday.
You can see this best on the following loop. Watch her shove the dryness aside. That's a sign of a system that wants to fight vs giving up to the negative conditions that exist.
Another question some models have raised is does it move more the WNW or continue NW and REMEMBER the system is not South Cuba but off the ledge just south of the tip of the Yucatan.
Where she catches the front is the big question.
My bottom line is probably still...Mobile Bay... one way or the other Mobile Bay is going to get weather from Karen. I'm not saying it couldn't go as far west as LA or as far east as NW Florida but looking at the orientation of the front, the lows, the Upper Level Lows and taking CLIMO into account... I'd say for today the logical answer would be around Mobile Bay.
That may change tomorrow when we get "more better" data from Recon and models that have been run with the data they get later today while in the system.
I'll be back later to update after Recon gets their data and the NHC looks at their data and we see what we shall see..