Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 09, 2013

Worry Not on the 1st Hurricane of the Season...but the LAST... A look back at 1991 and 2012... Remember Grace?

The H storm is on the map and the countdown to a Hurricane in the Atlantic is up and running. Mind you Humberto looks stronger than they said at 8AM and would say it is at least 50mph currently. Strong storm. The details of the discussion are not all that important. It's far away in the land of the Cape Verde Islands and currently making landfall in ways and yet like the tree in the forest no one cares. All anyone wants to talk about is when the first hurricane will form. to tell you after the 2012 Hurricane Season my bigger concerns are when the LAST Hurricane will form.

Want to know why?

I'll tell you why? I'll show you why...

File:Sandy 2012 track.png
Hurricane Sandy formed in LATE October.............the Halloween storm...

Things change fast in the tropics... patterns get thrown out the window when the pattern changes.

In 2012 at about this point in the season all we had was weak tropical storms and shallow hurricanes for a day or two. Mostly nothing to write home about. A bunch of weak, wet tropical storms crisscrossed the south and all the real tropical energy stayed south in the Caribbean. No really LONG trackers.

Cyclonebiskit posted these maps on wikipedia... sweet...

Notice all the storms that went north up the Atlantic vs going to Florida or Carolina? The East Coast looked safe from any real hard hurricane hit.

Things change even though they stay the same in some ways.

More storms in the Atlantic but oh my goodness what is that hurricane that got away and slammed hard into New Jersey and New York and changed the way we look at storms making landfall in New York City in almost November... Because in October everything changed.

Things do have to stay on top of the tropics and never assume that a weak start will bring a weak end.

These free form ink blots tell a late Autumn story of BOO....

The Perfect Storm... which sort of fed off of Hurricane Grace.

File:Grace and H8 1991 track.png the season brought to you by Stephen King...

1991 was a relatively slow season. Tell that to Sebastian Junger who make a fortune writing the Perfect Storm or the actors who played in the movie.

Somewhere it began with a writer standing by the water...staring out at the ocean..raising their long arms out at the moon...the sea... the sea foam...the far away storm and the writer's mind that doesn't sleep trying to see out there...far out there.......into the mind of the storm.

Hurricane Bob.... another New England landfalling storm that affected the Atlantic Coast...and then nothing big....

File:1991 Atlantic hurricane season map.png

It took 6 attempts to get to the C storm............think on that how often does that happen?

1Tropical Storm ANA29 JUN- 5 JUL451000-
2Tropical Depression 25- 7 JUL300-
3Hurricane-3 BOB16-29 AUG1009503
4Tropical Depression 424-26 AUG300-
5Tropical Depression 528-31 AUG300-
6Hurricane-4 CLAUDETTE4-14 SEP1159444
7Tropical Storm DANNY7-11 SEP45998-
8Tropical Storm ERIKA8-12 SEP50997-
9Tropical Storm FABIAN15-17 OCT401002-
10Tropical Depression 1024-25 OCT250-
11Hurricane-2 GRACE25-29 OCT909802
12Hurricane-1 1228 OCT- 2 NOV659721
Basically it took 3 storms to get to the B storm and SIX storms to get to the C storm which usually happens in 3 tries. for some reason storms could not get it going. then Claudette safely out to sea a Cat 4 and then 3 more weak storms ...a barely there tropical Depression 10 and then suddenly on October 25th Grace comes on the scene and merges and tangoes in the North Atlantic with a Noreaster and another system and became the PERFECT STORM which in truth was not "perfect" as we think of Hurricane Donna in 1960 as the perfect example of a perfect storm. In truth Grace was as dysfunctional as it gets but like drop dead gorgeous guys we always remember the totally screwed up but sexy ones......

It's not about the beginning... it's often about when and how the season ends. Does it go out with whimper or a BANG?

First system formedJuly 2, 1991
Last system dissipatedNovember 2, 1991

As for HUMBERTO in 2013... let's take the time machine back to the present...

WOW check that out... that's more than some wimpy 40 or 45 mph Tropical Storm if you ask me.. oh by the way large storms usually turn slower.

Look at the remnants of Gabrielle.... is she doing the Grace dance ??? Somethings going on there today and it started yesterday.

Another view...

That's Humberto on the far right...stage right...

The forecast is for Humberto to become a Hurricane..... see below from the NHC... is the H storm the Tatse of Honey that the NHC has been waiting for??

The MJO MOJO that starts the season that everyone predicted we would have???


INIT  09/0900Z 13.4N  22.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 13.6N  24.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 14.1N  26.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 14.9N  27.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 16.2N  28.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 20.0N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 23.5N  30.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 25.2N  33.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

"Greg Fishel @gbfishel2h
Regarding the hurricane season, NOAA stated on May 23 "There are no mitigating factors that we can see that will suppress the activity"

Greg Fishel asked a good question on Twitter yesterday...Bryan Norcross has asked the same question. Why when there were no mitigating factors int he forecast for this season...did we get nothing going until the middle of September? Good question.. 

It's a mystery novel that doesn't have the end written yet.... stay tuned...someone will figure it out.

As for the 2013 Hurricane Season... will it end all soft and sweet like a Carpenters tune?

Hurricane Seasons sometimes have surprises when we get into Fall and the Jack O Lanterns are out things to BOO in the not so tropical night.....................

A lot to think on real answers but lots of questions....

Bobbistorm's Bottom Line:

Expect an upgrade sooner rather than later on Humberto to Hurricane...

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Read a cute fortune cookie the other day. "Live in the past or learn from it'

Beware of those years when nothing can pull it together and there are a bunch of no neck storms barely able to maintain themselves. Remember 1991...look at the storms after Claudette...and then there was Grace..and the Perfect Storm.

  • Tropical Depression 10 (24-25 OCT)
    Storm - Max Winds: 25 Min Pres: - Category: TD 
  • Tropical Storm FABIAN (15-17 OCT)
    Storm - Max Winds: 40 Min Pres: 1002 Category: TS 
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA (08-12 SEP)
    Storm - Max Winds: 50 Min Pres: 997 Category: TS 
  • Tropical Storm DANNY (07-11 SEP)
    Storm - Max Winds: 45 Min Pres: 998 Category: TS 
  • Hurricane-4 CLAUDETTE (04-14 SEP)
    Storm - Max Winds: 115 Min Pres: 944 Category: 4 
  • Tropical Depression 5 (28-31 AUG)
    Storm - Max Winds: 30 Min Pres: - Category: TD 
  • Tropical Depression 4 (24-26 AUG)
    Storm - Max Winds: 30 Min Pres: - Category: TD 


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