Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 02, 2013

Elongated Area of 3 Centers & Yucatan Needs a Yellow Cirlce & Labor Day Hurricane 1935

There should be a yellow circle near the Yucatan but there is not. Don't be surprised to see one show up there. A few days back I said that there are subtle changes in the Western Caribbean and that was what I was talking about. There is a region where development could occur and the atmosphere is "juiced up" and able to support a tropical system. In fact, in ways it is primed to host a tropical cyclone easier than the currently troubled Atlantic.

Look closer at the visible loop and you'll see what I mean about the area currently south of the Yucatan.

You see the twisting in the West Carib and more so the general look of the area between it and Jamaica. There is an upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico that is more visible on the Water Vapor Loop than on the Visible Loop below.

There is a sense of a "blooming" look going on.. a bulging of the clouds. Worth watching. Also the lead wave of the three sisters currently making up the elongated yellow circle" is moving into a region very ready to support some development.

Note how the moisture travels west through the Carib with additional support coming off of Columbia and then feeds north up towards the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico and up towards the South West coast of Florida.  Watch that area and keep that patten in mind. There is more abundant moisture there right now as seen by the loop below.

Oddly there are dry pockets of sea green that do not belong there and in the Bahamas this time of year. The whole area is gyrating around like a big gyroscope that is in fact the large Bermuda High.

Note the area in the Central Atlantic tried to get a "spin" going yesterday and then got stretched out. Until one area can take control over the other and develop a vertically stacked area of convection and low pressure nothing will happen soon.

Remember the comical creature in Dr. Doolittle that was meant to teach children the concept of give and take.

The area in the Atlantic is like this creature above. The energy transfers back and forth and doesn't go anywhere.

There is a school of thought that the system to the right could become the main player down the road that the models continue showing a hurricane off the coast of Florida moving north.  There has been this problem ongoing, some models go west...some go north sharply over Cuba. Why? Perhaps they are looking at two different systems.

There have been some strong hurricanes that formed from similar set ups ...but somewhere along the line one has to wrap around the other.

Until one does... this is like 3 Faces of Gabrielle. Gabriella, Gabrielle and Gabby... which is it? And, more so how strong does it get and where does it go?

With regard to the Labor Day Hurricane. When looking at pictures of the overturned train...remember it was traveling over a spit of land in the middle of the ocean.

This is a cropped picture...

Look wider at the larger view

This is a modern day picture of that beautiful region.. Upper Matecumbe Key:

This is an even wider view. Remember...the Overseas Railroad was a train that road a narrow bed of causeways and man made filled islands and real Keys to Key West. It basically was an OVER SEAS Highway.

The A is where the Train left the tracks.

Any strong Category 3 or 4 or 5 storms could have lifted a train off of the tracks not that many feet away from the beach when the beach disappeared and the land was covered by a tidal wave partially storm surge and partially due to the way the track had been laid damning up the regular flow of the water into Florida Bay. This was warned about at the time of the train tracks were laid, but ignored in favor of the economic package the train would deliver and no one said no to Henry Flagler. Today such a road never would be built....too many rules, regulations and reality involved.

Either's a day to remember the people who died and the enormity of a Category 5 storm that only two days earlier was a Tropical Storm. formed from some dysfunctional system like we have now in the tropics that suddenly came together...

5 days in September of 1935.
From Tropical Depression to Category 5 Hurricane.

No one saw that coming back in the days without modeling.........

5  24.20  -70.90 08/30/06Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  6  24.20  -71.40 08/30/12Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  7  24.10  -72.10 08/30/18Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  8  24.10  -72.90 08/31/00Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
  9  24.00  -73.70 08/31/06Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
 10  23.90  -74.50 08/31/12Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
 11  23.80  -75.20 08/31/18Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
 12  23.70  -75.90 09/01/00Z   50     - TROPICAL STORM
 13  23.70  -76.60 09/01/06Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
 14  23.70  -77.30 09/01/12Z   65     - HURRICANE-1
 15  23.70  -77.90 09/01/18Z   75     - HURRICANE-1
 16  23.70  -78.50 09/02/00Z   90     - HURRICANE-2
 17  23.70  -79.00 09/02/06Z  105     - HURRICANE-3
 18  23.80  -79.50 09/02/12Z  120     - HURRICANE-4
 19  24.10  -80.00 09/02/18Z  135     - HURRICANE-4
 20  24.60  -80.50 09/03/00Z  160   892 HURRICANE-5
 21  24.80  -80.80 09/03/02Z  160   892 HURRICANE-5
 22  25.10  -81.10 09/03/06Z  160     - HURRICANE-5
 23  25.70  -81.60 09/03/12Z  145     - HURRICANE-5
 24  26.40  -82.20 09/03/18Z  130     - HURRICANE-4
 25  27.10  -82.80 09/04/00Z  115     - HURRICANE-4
 26  27.80  -83.20 09/04/06Z  105     - HURRICANE-3
 27  28.40  -83.40 09/04/12Z   95     - HURRICANE-2

Something to think on during a quiet Labor Day Weekend. 

Again if you live near the coast...go and spread some economic growth around and enjoy yourself. They need days like this because often the beach is shut down on their last chance to make money when a Hurricane tears their lives and businesses apart. Today is a good day to be a tourist... 

Go out..enjoy... and check back later.

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Again one area will take over and another yellow circle will go up near the Yucatan.


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