Invest 97L Flaring UP Strong... African Wave Looks Dead (for now) Models & Thoughts & Songs on Labor Day Weekend

I want you to look carefully at the Before and After and then read last night's post please as there is a lot to say, a lot to remember and a lot to watch out for...

Today is above... 

Yesterday above... 

Put it in motion:

See the changes... the Western Atlantic is coming alive.

There are less dark colors in the Caribbean and more moisture.

Invest 97L grew bigger, darker and seems to want to consolidate.

There is a high pressure ridge building in to the  north of the Invest. 

Remember that on Friday Morning NO ONE was talking about this Invest...because the models ignored it..

...in favor of the Cape Verde Wave that was forecast to become a named storm fast and recurve.

Models blew it. Stop the over reliance on the models and use them as a guide.

They are "forecasting" not showing history...they are predicting possibilities.

Watch the Water Vapor below...

Upper Level Low is shoving it's way west North of Hispaniola...High Pressure is building in behind it..

...for the short term that should keep Invest 97L on a westward course... 

there is a second ULL behind it reinforcing the High..

and an odd area of convection building to the NW of Invest 97L

Note that the elongated nature of Invest 97L helps fire up convection across the area 

acting as it's own blocker and note that started happening over night as it grew in size

and more convection showed up around the swirl that is the center...

Note that Invest 97L is a system that wants respect & to be noticed..

Note the strong flow north for now over Cuba... which some models show..

Strong bouts of moisture are coming up off of Columbia into the Caribbean and once..

the Epac stops spitting out storms named Waylon and Zito 

the Atlantic will come alive with the sparks that light the keg being:

MJO 

HOT WATER

LESS SHEAR

MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT

And...the water is Hot and almost Virginal as there have been no storms down there in a long time

Now... could it develop and pull North instead... yes possibly.

This is about "could" not "should" as there are no hard fast rules this season in the tropics... 

Could be off to see the Lizard...or Florida or Cuba or Carolina or... Bermuda..

This is about "coulds" because UNTIL WE SEE A DEFINE CENTER

and have a real storm the  models are only as good as the info they get and that is

garbage in ...garbage out..

For now the modelS show this track and note the stubborn GFS is the only one who 

doesn't want to join the party...

Oh LOOK... WUNDERGROUND has joined in and talking about development possibilities.. 

we've come a long way since Friday morning when this wave was off the table.

As for me..........I'm going to throw out the models (or pretend to...wink wink)

until this system gets a name and better data & maybe the Gulfstream Jet or something could get in there

and see what is really going on..

cause a little voice deep inside tells me this could be Gabrielle and she's a

Real Smart Woman in a Real Short Skirt..and she should not be ignored.....

gonna kick up her heels I think..........

Look at her go........green on Funktop

Something is going on there............enjoy the day but keep checking back..

September isn't getting away without a name...trust me on that!

One of my favorite Jimmy Buffett songs from this great CD..

it's a little racy... if you dont' like racy... don't watch ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlpngTvUpSo

Besos Bobbi

Ps..Read last night's post as it's September and worth remembering!!

Oh...for now..........the African Wave is dead in the water...though as a weaker wave it will get further west..

...and have a chance later to redevelop..