It's September...wake up and smell the tropics!
Sort of like "Hello...who are you?" and "why are you here in my part of the world??"
Note that the RED area is close to the Islands where the wave that is now Invest 97L not over Africa. Though it does show a ripe area for development in the favored area of the ITZ in September which is now!
Let's look at the model that started all of this on Friday..the Canadian today
New Canadian Model brings a weaker storm further west and closer to South Florida after crossing Cuba. Where will the next model run take it? Either way worth noting it is still developing the Central Atlantic Wave now known as Invest 97L.
It develops it after moving into the Eastern Caribbean and then takes a sharp right turn up towards a strong cold front. My problem is that it's an awfully sharp turn for a weak storm. IF it was well developed it would want to go more to the North and the front is forecast to be strong. Also, there is convection in the Western Caribbean so why would a weak storm not continue west. There is also discussion that it might have a multiple center and the stronger center is further East or might relocate under the stronger convection as currently the "center" is west of the real convection.
Loop it please.
(Note updating this before I go to sleep and the NEW model takes it up into the Atlantic again...as a stronter storm...below)
Remember when I wrote about this on Friday few people gave it any attention and everyone was staring at the Eastern Atlantic at a system that was supposed to develop fast and move NW and recurve before getting to 45 West. Be aware it hasn't and if it hangs around it could get further west than the usually reliable models were predicting. The models have not been that spot on this summer, especially the GFS that did make several good calls but has also made some poor ones...especially long term. It has stayed conservative in not developing waves into hurricanes and on that basis it's still every one's favorite model. Well, most people's favorite model.
So, let's look at 97L up close and personal.
Approaching the islands.
Let's stick for now with black and white ...
Notice the Upper Level Low to the NW of Invest 97L. It has a finger that reaches far to the ESE and "tickles" Invest 97L which responds in a fit of giggles by blowing up and showing us more convection. Upper Level Lows can tear a tropical wave apart if too close ... but it can also give it new life if stays nearby but a safe distance away.
I also want to point out that this is happening in the Western Caribbean as well to some degree. There is an ULL in the Gulf of Mexico. The Caribbean has been looking as if it could support development of a system for the last few days. Something is going on down there and if this trend continues.. if a drop of High Pressure builds a lot and the ULL stays to the North or NW... something could pop. IF Invest 97L got there in a few days... if it doesn't follow the ULL over PR and DR WNW under a high pressure ridge that is slowly being eroded by repetitive frontal boundaries pushing down into the Carolinas and into the Westernmost regions of the Atlantic.
Look at this chart that shows us how HOT the Caribbean and parts of the Bahamas are IF something wicked were to come their way.
A lot to think on.
This is September.. remember that.
In 1988 there were no hurricanes until September 2nd...and then there were several Major Hurricanes including Category 5 Hurricane Gilbert whose name was retired after killing over 300 people.
"Hurricane Gilbert was the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic basin until Hurricane Wilma broke this record in 2005. The storm caused $5 billion (1988 USD) in damage across the Caribbean and into Central America. Gilbert was the first hurricane to make landfall in Jamaica since Hurricane Charlie in 1951. Until 2007's Hurricane Dean, it was also the most recent storm to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in Mexico. The death toll from Gilbert was reported to be 318 people, mostly from Mexico."
Then there was the very strong Category 4 Hurricane Joan in October which wasn't all over.. after a dismal start of small no neck tropical storms and depressions after a very quiet August.
Sort of similar looking aren't they?
The season as a whole is here:
The loser storms of the season were Tropical Depression #5 that fell apart and then was tracked again later. Sound familiar?
Isaac fell apart...
Now...why did Isaac fall apart and TD5 never got the E name ..though I bet in today's more liberal culture of naming systems it would have been the E storm.
And, more so...why did Gilbert intensify and not look back and Joan almost made Category 5 after a quiet August?
Because....................things change in the tropics.
Today we are looking at a wave that is viable and staying alive about to come closer to the islands that several models refuse to ignore even though others do. An area of convection in the Caribbean that no one is talking about and an African Wave that didn't develop fast into a storm and whose chances went down not up over the last 24 hours. I don't have to remind you if it hangs together it could get further west than 45 and it could miss it's ticket for early recurvature.
And, by the way..................it's September. If not now when? Okay, possibly October... like Joan and Wilma and notice they were both strong storms but one was in a busy year and one in a quieter year. They both did massive damage.
From Wikipedia "Hurricane Joan killed 148 people in Nicaragua and 68 others in affected nations"
Bigger view ....
So, based on models that were WRONG... on Friday we were staring at the Cape Verde Wave expecting it to get a name on September 1st and stay in the East Atlantic outlining the African coast. The wave in the Central Atlantic was made fun of by EVERYONE except those who love to watch the Canadian.
36 hours later the chances of the African Wave for development by the NHC are way down. The chances for the Central Atlantic Wave are up so high that it has it's own Invest.
How things change.......... and why you can't simply rely on the models. And, in my position I am not going to just parrot back language I read in the NHC discussion and rely on the models to only look at what the models tell me might develop... especially in such a strange year as 2013. Strong frontal boundaries and the 3rd highest rainfall total for June for North Carolina EVER. It's just an odd year and the models are not perfect and they change every twelve hours or so. It's sort of like a girl with a period every 12 hours vs every 30 days. You want a dog in that fight? I don't think so......and yeah I'm a woman I can say that. Hurricanes should be female named storms for a reason. Maybe Upper Level Lows should be male. How many of you are glad you didn't give up on this post three paragraphs ago. Seriously...some models change their mind so often you need to sit back, watch and enjoy the drama when they are not developed and far from land. These are though tell that to the islands.
Yeah, there's a big world out there between South America and Florida and the English speaking countries.
A good look from a great site.
It's a BIG blue world out there. Tomorrow the models may love it or hate it or take it into the Carib or Carolina or show it falling apart. But, again this is an excellent example of over reliance on the models in that we are watching a very alive Atlantic wave approaching the islands, but based on modeling no one wanted to pay attention and were ready to name the next storm out by Africa.
As my friend who has passed on Harvey used to say "where's the pain now" after he would work on me. I ask "where's the next possible named storm?" and remember it's not where the models said it would be less than 48 hours ago.
Will the Invest 97L survive? Only time will tell.............but there are subtle changes in the tropics on the 1st day of September vs the quiet time in August. And, remember... the first named hurricane in 1988 was on September 2nd...and the neither Gilbert nor Joan ever looked back.
Ps............it's such a big world you can even include in outer space.
Weather there too...