Tropical Depression #7 Forms As I Prepare for the Jewish High Holidays...
Finally, Tropical Depression 7 has formed from Invest 97L.
The NHC has the track shown above for this system and seems to show it moving out to sea... This track follows many of the models that took it over the Mona Passage.
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I believe they have erred on the side of caution as it is close to land and developing faster than it has so far.
Probabilities for wind speeds across the areas in it's track are shown below:
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 3(21) 1(22)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17)
PONCE 34 20 10(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
SAN JUAN 34 6 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
Models are shown below:
Another view:
Another.......... because this is going to be in the vicinity of South Florida and the Bahamas there is more of a concern that the timing is right and it doesn't get under a ridge and turn back to the West which some models do show happening. The majority of them show it moving NE away from the SE Coast. But, any time a hurricane is to your south (or TS) you don't relax until it is far, far away.
Going to put my thoughts in another font & color regarding the discussion from the NHC.
First of all.. it's borderline with regard to depression status. It is a depression and it is forecast to become a tropical storm in the near future. And, then it struggles. Another problem is that the intensity models show a package anywhere from mild tropical storm to a strong hurricane. The models showing a strong hurricane are not the A team models...but still you can't ignore them totally.
I think 130 mph for a system that took this long to develop is a bit crazy, however I have seen crazier things. Most intensity models are way lower.
So.... don't worry too much about this system unless you live in PR where it will dump more and more rain. Keep paying attention to it and go about life and in several days it could be a problem. Could more based on timing and timing is always everything. If it misses that door way out to sea by dawdling around too long... there could be a fast change in the models to the left...West. If not .. Gabrielle will be a Fish Storm.
Still way too early to tell.
Worth mentioning that the area to the East or NE of TD7 is also flaring up today and that is going to make for a harder time forecasting the track of TD7 and Gabrielle down the road.
Radar Link for PR:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua
http://stormcarib.com/
As for me... I will not be here again until Saturday Night. I have the Jewish High Holy Days and well I'm not around on the Jewish High Holidays or Shabbos. Sadly...they come in the middle of the height of the Hurricane Season but well...that's the way the honey cookie crumbles. I usually leave TWC on mute somewhere and this year it's what we call a 3 Day Holiday as we don't turn things on and off (timers are okay..) and we don't drive or work or use the phone ...but we set the table a lot and eat sweet things so that we have a good, sweet year!
I made chicken with tangerines, oranges, figs, grapes and honey ...and rum. Sweet Potato Pie and Noodle Pudding with fruit. There is a brisket and a tongue being cooked by someone...not me. A lot of guests. Honey cake, brownies, strawberry pink cup cakes with pink frosting for little girls and a Rum cake and Butterscotch cake and the pineapple upside down cake has not been baked yet. Wine, beer... coffee, tea.. you get the idea.
Here's my table or part of it...
We dip apples in honey for a sweet year. I have orange blossom honey, cotton honey and buckwheat honey as well as straws flavored with pina colada, chai tea, blueberry, peach ...well you get the idea.. I'll be dieting after the holiday.
I love the holidays. I love the hurricane season. I just wish they wouldn't come at the same time :)
So...until I am back there are some awesome sites to choose from...
www.spaghettimodels.com
www.flhurricane.com
www.hurricanecity.com
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/n <---really analysis="" and="" discussion="" div="" great="">
Follow Mike online... join the discussion and follow along...he is awesome.
Ps..some links to the High Holidays.
And... enjoy the next few days... eat something sweet and think good thoughts on PEACE whether you are Jewish or not... we all need peace in the world. And... it's always nice to eat something sweet, healthy and hope for sweeter times!!
On a personal level when I was a child the story of Sandy Koufax not pitching in the World Series on Yom Kippur hit me strongly. Everyone was talking about it...would they have pitched or not... We all have to stand by what we believe at times in our lives and so I'll be in house with lots of kids... and in Temple with lots of friends and probably my best prayer moments will be outside on the deck staring at the way the light filters through the trees or walking over to the Temple (we don't drive on the holiday) where somehow I find myself focusing my thoughts better there than anywhere.
Oddly, I doubt Sandy ever thought it would become such a discussion for all time... it was a personal decision and though he missed the early games...he won the game when it was important.
A link to a friend's place in Cary...they do a great job.
Check them out... you don't need "tickets" to attend services..
"We take this opportunity to urge everyone to participate in High Holidays Services. If you are not affiliated with a synagogue, and are looking for a welcoming community for the High Holidays, we encourage you to join us on Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur. Our doors are open to all: No membership. No tickets. We simply want to provide you with an opportunity to experience a meaningful Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur. We are looking forward to your participation as we pray, sing, and celebrate together."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rabbi-shais-taub/sand-koufax-yom-kippur_b_996111.html
Another friend of mine who was in the local paper here...they work with Chapel Hill and Duke. She's amazing.
http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/08/30/3151346/chabad-movement-aims-to-make-jewish.html
Making challah (sweet egg bread) for the holiday with her daughter..
So... I have to go ... there's cakes to bake and sleeping arrangements here to figure out...
Happy Jewish New Year from Raleigh and thinking that the switch may have been flipped and the next month may be busier than August has been. As for me.. I have about 12 people here and 4 small children so I know my life will be busier. But... I'll be thinking on the tropics and I'll be back Saturday Night with thoughts, analysis and anything else that goes bump in my tropical mind.
And again the monkey on the back of this storm to it's NE makes this a very tricky forecast. Am sure the NHC will stay on top of it and do a great job!! Still... pay attention for any fast changes in track or intensity.
Besos Bobbi
Ps...Thank you for your understanding and for reading my blog ...
http://www.chabad.org/holidays/JewishNewYear/template_cdo/aid/4839/jewish/Rosh-Hashanah-Eve-Meal.htm
posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:55 PM
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