Complexities in the Caribbean--- Is Gabrielle in the Caribbean? NRL says maybe - Tropical Update 1st Tuesday in September

This image above should update in real time so if you check back a month from now it will not make sense to look at ...but today it shows 3 areas of possible tropical development.

From Outer Space it looks like this so I will discuss the areas in the order of the most importance in relationship to both West to East and mot convection. My commitment to discuss what is vs model fantasy which is fun ...but not working well this year. Why you ask? Because every week for WEEKS the GFS model spins up some long range cyclone near Africa (one should eventually hit the mark) and then refuses to see what is there...the CMC model develops every rainstorm into a possible cyclone that the GFS ignores and some people like the EURO that has been okay but also inconsistent.

1.. Yucatan
This is the area that I've been thinking could support development, though I don't like the westward track everyone is favoring. That wreaks of an Invest 92L situation. We are going to watch a center try and develop around a bustling Upper Level Low and the moisture is flowing, surging north and northeast into Florida while everyone talks on the Tex-Mex borderlands.



The ULL that dipped south into the Carib has destroyed the positive environment that has been there the last few days and it's all choppy and the flow is swooshing off the rain into the Eastern Gulf. Yes..."swooshing" is my word for this morning. If the ULL keeps dipping south it will push the whole area north into the Gulf and it may ventilate the extremely slow developing Invest 97L in the Eastern Caribbean. What a mess... really. Though it does sort of like look a black heart...

You can watch the South Florida Radar Image here:



Again the "center of low pressure" will move into the BOC and the RAIN will move into the Eastern Gulf enhancing rain in South Florida. Another RERUN system showing so far NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

See the heart??? Well I do. Long story but I call this shot black heart of the Caribbean.

It reminds me of things that annoy me and mistakes I made years ago so ... it's my own little mystery.

Swooshing + Black Hearts = Messy Tuesday Morning for me...

2. Next we have the area in the Caribbean known as Invest 97L. Note everyone thought that would be Gabrielle by now. Then again...they thought the Cape Verde Wave wound be too. Perhaps Gabby is shy?

It's a small, small system visible in the image above. See how it almost looks like a small faint Hurricane Symbol? It's a small system with rotation visible on both radar imagery as well as satellite imagery however it hasn't found it's groove. And, it's competing with a ghost wave to the east which may develop in a few days and well.... a house divided can't stand long and if it does it's not a happy place...



It keeps trying and trying and trying.... and falling apart over and over... but there is a twist that is visible and there and some models show it developing while others like the GFS show it more as an area of vorticity and convection but not able to pull it together traveling generally WNW. We can watch it on PR radar soon...

Note discussion out of San Juan...if this is not the bottom line I don't know what it as it's in the cross hairs there and either they are worried or not or it's just more rain.......which again has been the pattern ALL season.

"MAIN CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER

ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED BEST MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE TIMING OF FLOODING RAINS AND LOCATION OF THIS
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS NOT YET CLEAR.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON."

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SJU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

The area to the East could develop over the Turks in a few days. Maybe...but worth noting the NRL is ONLY following the wave now over the islands.



Maybe if the wave to the East develops more it will get it's own Invest? Or just is an illusion.. a mirage maybe.

Also worth noting that the NRL now has a MAP...TRACK online... possibly a sign of an upgrade to some named status for 97.



Again...............is this the next G storm? Or sticking with the black heart theme of the day the Gee Storm?

NRL doesn't do anything without a reason. This would imply something is happening.. I'd go with a Tropical Depression ... though the planes are going out it seems in search of a closed off center at some point sooner rather than later.

Bobbistorm's Bottom Line: Stay tuned for possible upgrade with this system

3. The Cape Verde Invest known as 98L.



I really refuse to buy into this new fantasy of the GFS unless something is evident that something has changed and nothing really has and this wave despite has a long way to go and I don't just mean geographically.



Looks good... then hits the water and fizzles like the ones before it. It also has a very broad circulation vs the very small swirl of 97L.

There is a school of thought that the area behind 97L will move more to the northeast and ride in tandem or develop on it's own in a few days and become a coastal cruiser moving up along the SE Coast and probably staying out to sea.

BUT................as always...............it comes down to TIMING..........always & forever... timing is an issue.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upkHzM_9cHA

So...somewhere in time this year...some system somewhere will develop and no I am not going to use grammar until some stupid invest aka tropical wave learns how to spin and get itself a name and then we will talk about doing grammar again.  Yeah...am on strike.

:)

You know that saying 3 Strikes and You're Out??

If the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season cannot get itself together with THREE Invests on the map in September I think it's time to call it a day and go play...

GFS shows no hurricanes out of these 3 areas but does develop a CV Wave at the end run... like it always does. Either it's the wunderkid model everyone thinks it is or it needs to be slapped around a bit and rebooted. Maybe this whole season needs a reboot...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013090306&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Besos Bobbi