Drama in Colorado -- Red Circle in GOM -- Tropical Atlantic a B Movie
Breaking News from the Tropics:
..GABRIELLE REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...HUMBERTO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...
From the NHC Discussion.. last sentence says it all...
1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
NHC put a qualifying "if necessary" as in "not a done deal" but pretty sure this is gonna get a name language there.
Lastly....and I do mean lastly as in a late bloomer lastly is the circle in the Atlantic near the entrance to the Caribbean. Down there south of that big deep V and being ripped apart and under attack by the nasty Upper Level Lows.
2. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
Again... maybe later, not just yet...not the quickest in the bunch but could be the slow tortoise that wins the race if it can find a place to catch it's breath and get that ULL monkey off it's back.
Why are we paying ANY attention to it? Sometimes you got to go wide and use the visible.
What do you see when you look at this picture above? The trail of Tropical Storm Gabrielle up in the middle of the page. If this was a map of NC it would be up near the border...around Roxboro which got a lot of snow this past winter and on the way to NASCAR in Martinsville, VA.
The system down in the Gulf of Mexico is down to the southwest down near the borderlands of Mexico and Texas in the Bay of Campeache which is a lot like say Charlotte where the NASCAR museum is.. great place to go even if you don't like NASCAR. By the time you leave there... you will be a NASCAR fan.
Humberto is big... humongous and taking up the Eastern Atlantic, but a long...long drive away if you live in Asheville and if you live in Asheville you are more interested in mountain sunsets than OBX sunrises. Fun...off shore.. way out there.. not worth the drive.
Then you have the system down in the Caribbean... might be Myrtle Beach which is easy to make fun of but one of the most fun places to be in the region. Everyone likes to make fun of MB... they call it honky tonk and Golf Course Garden of Eden and Redneck Riviera but in truth it is beautiful. Boardwalks, noisy beaches, quiet beaches, hanging moss, palm trees, hibiscus and oleander and as close as you can get to the tropics in the region. A make believe paradise with a lake surrounded by fun shops and amusing places to play games, eat great food, drink good beer and ride fast boats around the big lake in the middle of Broadway at the Beach.
Hey I'll take a honky tonkin, tourist trap on the beach every time if I can watch the sunrise...swim in the pool, go dancing at night and sip margaritas. I'm not proud... I know where to have fun and no it's not Boca (boring) or Hilton Head (too far south and expensive) and not Key West that I love.. it's more like "love the one your with" and enjoy life.. kick off your shoes, go for a walk on the beach... watch a thunderstorm rise up over the Strand...feel the breeze.
The small, little yellow circle down near the Caribbean has the promise of tropical fun for trackers, chasers and anyone looking for the real thing this season.
Fireworks at sunset... dance the night away and watch the sunrise in the morning.
(I took that picture on a balcony high up in the sky staring out at the water before taking a walk...)
See the people down there at the edge of the surf??
That's them fishing...standing in the surf at sunrise fishing... how cool is that? And, that's not a real dolphin...just an optical illusion but perhaps he was thinking on dolphins when I snapped the picture... Sometimes thoughts manifest into reality..you know..
And, that my friends is what a REAL Caribbean/Atlantic Hurricane would be like..
Doesn't have to hit land or smash some scenic town or destroy anyone's life..
It's what we live for ... honestly. We love to watch storms form, study them, dissect them and track them but it's like watching a travel video of what Jamaica looks like rather than being there sipping rum and dancing with a sexy partner. We can watch the rain fall in a movie or feel it fall on our face..dance in it a bit and then hide out underneath an overhang and stare at it falling...smell the rain.
This is where BAD WEATHER should be in September..
That little tightly wrapped swirl should be a Hurricane. Maybe a Cat 1 Hurricane flirting with Cat 2 status and giving the islanders some second thoughts on a quiet hurricane season. And, people up in Miami would be looking down picturing a Category 3 storm coming in from the ESE up and over the islands. Often they go through the Straits and form in the Gulf of Mexico or outline the coast before curving off the Outer Banks and some guy in Asheville tells his wife "see I told you it was going to go out to sea" and that is what we should see in September.
You see you can run from the hurricanes, but you can't really hide from weather disasters.
"Flash floods wash away homes, kill at least 3 near Boulder, Colorado
By Matthew DeLuca and Alexander Smith, NBC News
Torrential rain drenched parts of Colorado, washing away homes and causing at least three deaths as officials worked Thursday to evacuate towns and keep people out of the path of the rising water.
The National Weather Service described a “life-threatening situation” in an emergency message issued just after midnight local time for several areas around Boulder, where about 6.5 inches of rain fell in a 24-hour period, according to the National Weather Service.
The first death was reported near Jamestown, according to officials, and was thought to be because of a building collapse. Another person was found dead on Linden Drive in Boulder, officials said. The Colorado Springs Fire Department reported a third death on Thursday morning after a body was recovered near Interstate 25."
(read the article... )
Weather will find you and when the transportation of energy from the tropics northward is disrupted it simply goes elsewhere.
Look at the tropics.. nothing moving from S to N or even from SE to NW..
You can see the area in the BOC percolating... the high to the north will keep it moving to the west. If it was on the eastern side of that dip say between Cuba and the Loop Current it would go to SW Florida, but it's far enough west to just keep going west for MANY reasons.
See the moisture from the Eastern Pacific oozing up across Mexico and clashing with frontal boundaries?
Front goes down... UPPER LOW is spinning...
2013... the Year of the Upper Level Lows... on land and on sea..
Energy trying to find it's way north... nice little swirl off of the Space Coast of FL.. just noticed :)
So on the TWC Bryan Norcross talked on the 1976 floods which he saw first hand that were tragic...
memorable..............
READ IT when you got the time...
Atlantic Hurricane Season for 1976
Looks busy...
Looks can be deceiving... almost ALL of the strong activity was for a week or two in August.
Does this look familiar?
ndividual Storm Summary
Winds in knots, pressure in millibars, category is based on Saffir-Simpson scale.
| # | Name | Date | Wind | Pres | Cat | |
| 1 | Subtropical Storm 1 | 21-25 MAY | 45 | 994 | - | |
| 2 | Tropical Depression 2 | 7- 9 JUN | 30 | 0 | - | |
| 3 | Tropical Depression 3 | 11-12 JUN | 30 | 0 | - | |
| 4 | Tropical Depression 4 | 20-22 JUL | 25 | 0 | - | |
| 5 | Tropical Depression 5 | 23-24 JUL | 25 | 0 | - | |
| 6 | Extratropical Storm ANNA | 28 JUL- 6 AUG | 45 | 999 | - | |
| 7 | Hurricane-3 BELLE | 6-10 AUG | 105 | 957 | 3 | |
| 8 | Tropical Storm DOTTIE | 18-21 AUG | 45 | 996 | - | |
| 9 | Hurricane-1 CANDICE | 18-24 AUG | 80 | 964 | 1 | |
| 10 | Hurricane-2 EMMY | 20 AUG- 4 SEP | 90 | 974 | 2 | |
| 11 | Hurricane-3 FRANCES | 27 AUG- 7 SEP | 100 | 963 | 3 | |
| 12 | Tropical Depression 12 | 4- 6 SEP | 25 | 0 | - | |
| 13 | Tropical Depression 13 | 5- 7 SEP | 25 | 0 | - | |
| 14 | Subtropical Storm 14 | 13-17 SEP | 40 | 1011 | - | |
| 15 | Tropical Depression 15 | 20-27 SEP | 30 | 0 | - | |
| 16 | Tropical Depression 16 | 22-24 SEP | 25 | 0 | - | |
| 17 | Hurricane-2 GLORIA | 26 SEP- 5 OCT | 90 | 970 | 2 | |
| 18 | Tropical Depression 18 | 26-28 SEP | 30 | 0 | - | |
| 19 | Tropical Depression 19 | 3-12 OCT | 30 | 0 | - | |
| 20 | Tropical Depression 20 | 12-15 OCT | 30 | 0 | - | |
| 21 | Hurricane-1 HOLLY | 22-29 OCT | 65 | 990 | 1 |
Well we didn't get the Cat 2 and 3 just yet but.......real statistics show the activity was a short brief spurt and everything else was no neck weak storms that barely are worth remembering.
Take Tropical Depression 19 (19....most weak and barely got a name. 19 and we only got to the H storm think on it and the similarities to this year. Ended late... by September 25th they had had 16 systems and only were on the F storm... Gloria was down the road still the 17th system.
Similar to this year.
Look at the first sytems... nada happening...
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Tracking informationBelle came along and went north... wham... like an out of control Gabrielle sort of..
Why? Lots of reasons.
There was a memorable dust outbreak during that period
"1954-1991: The multi-year droughts in portions of North America of 1954–56, 1976–78,
and 1987–91 were noted for dust storms of the intensity seen in the middle 1930s over
some fraction of their coverage and timespan, and more sporadically during the times between. "
One reason of many...as the dust didn't hurt the great Atlantic storms of 54 and 55 then again they were strong on our side of the basin not by Africa...
An example MIGHT be 1954.. a busy season for odd storms on the Western Edge of the Tropical Atlantic Basin and the Eastern Edge was dry...
Cold winter forecast by many for this coming year...
http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No4/1977v002no04-Wagner.pdf
Similarities there too maybe...
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF02597694
We'll review this all LATER...after the season.
There has to be a reason that the tropics have been almost shut down in EVERY basin so far
....except the Eastern Atlantic which is still dry.
They are trying to come back... they will. One or two storms will get thru...in a week or two
1976 ended in late October...so will 2013 I think but will they be memorable storms?
Note the report on the 1976 Floods was written in 2001 after much study and discussion.
COLORADO REMEMBERS BIG THOMPSON CANYON FLASH FLOOD OF 1976 July 30, 2001 — While celebrating the state's 125th anniversary, many Colorado residents will pause July 31 to recall the 25th anniversary of one of the deadliest flash floods to occur in the United States. The Big Thompson Canyon flood occurred July 31, 1976, as the state celebrated its centennial. (Click NOAA topographic image of Big Thompson Canyon for larger view. Please credit NOAA.)
At the height of the Colorado tourist season, several thousand people escaped city heat by traveling to a popular camping area an hour northwest of Denver for hiking, fishing, camping and relaxing in the cooler mountain air. By late afternoon, an estimated 2,500-3,500 people were enjoying themselves in one of Colorado's most scenic river valleys. They had no way of knowing that unusual atmospheric conditions and the physical make up of the Big Thompson River valley were setting the stage for disaster.The Big Thompson River basin is similar geologically to many river basins along the eastern side of the Continental Divide. Sheer rock forms the canyon walls, with little soil and vegetation to absorb runoff from storms. The river starts high in the Rocky Mountains near Estes Park in north-central Colorado and flows eastward through the rugged, steep-walled canyon. In some places, the canyon walls jut almost straight up. From top to bottom, the river drops vertically more than half a mile and exits the canyon into the rolling, forested plains west of Loveland. Dotted with homes, restaurants and other businesses, U.S. Highway 34 stretched the length of the canyon. (Click NOAA topographic image of Big Thompson Canyon for larger view. Please credit NOAA.)
So, those are my thoughts today on the tropics...
We are in waiting mode... am sitting here waiting for the real thing to show up.
Reporting on what is...
Gabrielle
Humberto
Soon to be Ingrid
The hunt is on for the real storms... the ones you remember and we discuss for years to come.
But weather is day to day tedious and only moments are grand and glorious..
So far we have a bunch of not very memorable storms like B movies...
Bet you forgot James Stewart was in that one...
Nice poster... might look good on the wall in the hallway somewhere............
I don't even want to think on that one..........
Not one of John Wayne's most memorable movies...
hmnnnn
Robert Taylor... swoons for Hedy Lamarr..
Who can forget this 1953 Ronald Reagan classic in TECHNICOLOR???
As for me...sitting here waiting for something really tropical to write about and wish..
I was writing about some weak Cat 1 storm that barreled thru the islands rather than..
A flood with at least 2 people dead in Colorado..
Mother Nature will always find a way to do damage..
Besos Bobbi
(ps hate to mention it but maybe SW Carib...little swirl there... maybe)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj8xic3zpKs
Vacations are great but they are just fools holiday... cause when you go back to reality...
. . .
posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:39 AM
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