Chantal at 11 PM ... Battling Shear & Moving Too Fast... Holding at 60 MPH... What we learned from Andrew..

The above picture is my creative interpretation of Tropical Storm Chantal and a visual aid to explain why a storm that looks so messy on satellite imagery is in fact carrying Tropical Storm force winds with her as she moves west bound at a rapid clip. Officially she is moving WNW but to be honest for a while tonight she was really moving just North of West.

It is in fact General Tso's Fake Shrimp. Really... would I make that up? Textured Soy Protein..ya know? But, let's pretend... it's Chantal. Here.. I'll put up a current picture of Chantal so you will see the resemblance.

A little messy for a Tropical Storm but note the strong tropical storm winds are only in a small area in the center. She is not a classic looking storm, but every storm is different.

Now, look back up at the fake shrimp meal.....you see the broccoli sitting stem up? That is where the tropical storm force winds are... I used this to show people today how Chantal can look both weak and yet be strong.  Because of her fast forward movement into strong headwinds she is having problems wrapping up into a neat, pretty tropical storm with long arms that band around in different directions. She is basically a messy mass of strong convective clusters... a bit spicy with spices from the Caribbean and rain she carried with her across the ocean (pretty neat, can you do that?) and all together the sum total of her ingredients make her a Tropical Storm. If you happen to eat that one spicy pepper on the edge of the plate or a piece that broke off stuck to a convective cluster of onions you can get really burned. If you just move the food around on your plate and don't get a pepper flake or that one piece of broccoli it can seem like there's nothing to write home about.  Wrong.  Eat the pepper and you will learn otherwise. The hot pepper is in meteorologically correctly in the NE Corner of the plate.

Now, I want to say this also and going on record here.

Writing about tropical storms and hurricanes in the media carries a huge responsibility with it and we have to find that right balance between information and a caution on the side of not hyping a small storm into the next Hurricane Andrew ...

Continue to stay informed with regard to Tropical Storm Chantal. Do not write her off as No Show or a just a Large Rain Storm if you are in the possible path of this storm. Somewhere back in 2007 it seems I wrote a good piece about models here on the blog. They are like cards in your hand, and at some point you have to play the best card you are holding. The NHC looks over the many models lying on their plate looking a lot like twisted linguine and they pick out the model that they feel best fits the particular situation .... and they draw a cone around the models to the left and right that they believe are most likely. If you are in that cone ... keep paying attention. Don't ignore ANY storm because your car mechanic told you "they said on TV it's going to die out or it's going to Cuba" because they may not have heard it veered NW into Miami or that despite everyone saying "stick a fork in it" it came back to life.

Case in point Friday August 21st, 1992. I had Channel 10 on the TV while I was putting the last touches on my Shabbos dinner with guests in town and I glanced up to Don Noe whose motto was "Don Noe Knows Weather" on the ABC affiliate and he stood there grinning from ear to ear smiling with the good news that Andrew was most likely on her way as a weak storm towards the Carolinas or some place "up there" as he spoke of a trough.  Yes, Andrew was moving NW and she was weak but it was looking better for us. Miami was out of it and we should look to a nice weekend of beach and boating and enjoying one of the last weekends of the summer before school would begin soon. Something about a cold front and it was catching the trough and it was a weak storm that barely hung on unable to ever pull it together. The last thing I remember Don Noe saying was "go out and have a nice weekend and check back on Monday morning"

***

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI AUG 21 1992

         ....ANDREW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT PLANE
INDICATE THAT ANDREW IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS FALLING.  

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.7 WEST OR ABOUT 430
MILES...695 KM...NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...OVER A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME FURTHER INCREASE
IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM...NORTH OF THE CENTER AND UP TO 60 MILES...95
KM...SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
PLANE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...24.3 N... 63.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.
 
AVILA
 

***

I put on Bryan Norcross who was skeptical of a weak trough and had a feeling. I argued this back and forth with my best friend and fellow hurricane freak and continued on not worrying too much about a weak 60 mph storm headed NW.  We were lucky to have Bryan... not all forecasters on air are Bryan. Some like to act as if they personally are battling the storm for you. Others like to be over cautious in what they say and just reword the NHC Discussion. Some like to hype every wave out there ....while others make fun of weak storms and like to "kill them off" as if they are Superman battling Lex Luthor for you right there on the Nightly News. They ALL love weather and they ALL want to give you the best information possible...that I can tell  you. The Bryan Norcross types are few and far between. Bryan Norcross was in the right place at the right time when he was worried on the NHC Discussion and the models and the future strength and path of Andrew in 1992.

Fast forward to 24 hours or so later when I walked home from a friend's on Shabbos late in the day and felt the strong Easterly flow blowing at me hard up 34th Avenue as I walked back from Prairie to Sheridan on Miami Beach. I knew something was wrong...a very constant wind that did not stop for a moment. Shabbos was over.. I put on TWC and ... oh something changed. No...actually A LOT changed!

*****

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDREW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 1992

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FROM ANDROS ISLAND AND ELEUTHERA ISLAND
NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING DRY
TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE ANDREW CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY AND IN FLORIDA SOMETIME MONDAY. 
  
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES
...930 KM...EAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...AND
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH DANGEROUS
WAVE ACTION IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE NW BAHAMAS.  

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION 25.8 N...71.0 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

LAWRENCE

****

"some further strengthening is possible"

Yeah.............fast forward to the next day......

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

8 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH
OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT.

ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...INCLUDING EVACUATIONS
ORDERED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION."

Next thing we knew it was a Category 5 Hurricane aimed directly at Miami.. at my house.. at my life.

That doesn't happen often and no one sees it happening with Chantal. Then again on August 19th, 1992 no one saw it coming with the weak struggling Andrew.

This long discussion on Andrew is not about Chantal specifically... it is about understanding the sometimes hidden dangers that small, weak tropical storms that battle the odds over long distances and look more like  General Tso's Fake Shrimp possess. Chantal may fall apart in a mess of stormy weather or she may hang in there... cross over Haiti and Cuba at points with low terrain and tread water long enough to get to a better place and flare up again.

We just don't know.

What we do know is that EVERY time we are in the cone we need to take it seriously enough to check with our local, favorite weather people and stay informed on the storm.

And, then the next time we are in the cone... we do it all over again.

And, if we don't get creamed by the storm of the century we don't complain we spent too much money on Twinkies (who told you to buy Twinkies...) and we eat it up or we donate it to a homeless shelter and we give thanks we are not homeless ourselves from a hurricane.

That's life in the tropics.

As for Chantal... the official discussion and cone is below. Note...they "fixed" it's location and adjusted it and it is going more west than WNW, but they expect it will travel WNW... at 26..of course.  :)

CHANTAL 2013

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100254
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CHANTAL BECAME LESS ORGANIZED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THE PLANE
HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING
AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...AIR SPACE
RESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION
STILL EXISTS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS
TAKEN PLACE...WITH PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 50 AND 42 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF CHANTAL COULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES.  THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE CENTER MOVING OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA. 
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND SHOULD
DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OR
EVEN POSSIBLY DISSIPATION.  WHATEVER REMAINS OF CHANTAL AFTER THAT
WILL ENCOUNTER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE GFS SUGGESTS A DECOUPLING OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS...WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE VERTICAL
INTEGRITY.  IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
STRONG SHEAR...IT COULD REGENERATE OR RESTRENGTHEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD.

ABSENT RELIABLE CENTER FIXES...THE SPEEDY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...
285/25...OF CHANTAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON AVAILABLE
AIRCRAFT DATA THE CENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE SOUTH RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH HAS A RESULTED IN SOUTHWARD AND
WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS.  A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GUIDING CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO FLORIDA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE TRACK OF CHANTAL BENDING
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LEANS ON THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A
SHALLOWER CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS.    

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 15.3N  66.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 16.7N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 18.6N  72.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 20.6N  75.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER LAND
 48H  12/0000Z 22.6N  76.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  13/0000Z 26.5N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 29.0N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

(note hope she falls apart because this is not a "good" place to cross and she would have little interaction with land and stay over very warm water...even with shear that would not be good...)

The cone is also below. Will see what the models say in the morning..

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Besos Bobbi

Ps... Again...if you are in the cone pay attention no matter what you may have heard... when you are out of the cone and your home is still standing...be happy...donate the Twinkies to the nearest homeless shelter and do it all over again the next time you are in the cone.  Such is life in the tropics.. and it's a beautiful life!