Mixed Messages From the Tropics.. Is a Storm Developing in the Pacific or the Caribbean in a few weeks?

The GFS model has been spitting out a possible development in the deep Caribbean for days now. I had the best image saved under the term "Fantasy Cane" as that is what it was ...and been watching to see how it would pan out before posting it. Fifteen days away is a long time...

But, worth showing what the GFS was showing..

For now...if the area in the Pacific develops it will keep the Caribbean quiet a little bit longer.



Hurricanes are about transference of energy and when one area develops the other doesn't. Plain and simple.

That being said... the MJO which I believe does make a big difference is going to moving towards the Pacific and then the Caribbean in the near future. Many consider it responsible for the current storm in the Bay of Bengal commonly known to trackers as BoB.

The GFS currently shows development in the Pacific...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013051312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


On the other side of the world the tropics are alive and kicking..

It takes patience to track in the tropics in May on our side of the world. One day a model can hit South Florida on the 13th day and 2 days later it's playing with development in the Pacific.

It's a process ...

It's a question of watching the pattern...

Every day, every set of models and at the same time not jumping to conclusions.

Ice flows in Minnesota..

Warmer weather in Montana than Orlando? Will Montana and North Dakota end up being warmer today than Miami was? Keep watching..they day is young out west ...

Telling you now.. it's gonna be quite an interesting season coming at you soon in a few weeks ..

Keep watching the mixed messages.. and keep up the chatting on www.hurricanechat.com

Besos Bobbi

Ps..it may be cool still in the Outer Banks, very cool .... but the water is warming up off the coast of Miami...