Hurricane Season ... Less than 40 Days Away... Watching Atlantic

I know it snowed at a baseball game, but that's out west and these days I am looking East. Look at the cluster of storms called a "Tropical Wave" that comes flying off of Africa ...too low and too early to do anything of value other than to note that it is there. And, more will follow as each climbs a bit higher in latitude and moves West towards our neck of the woods over warmer than normal water temperatures!

Warm temps I say?

Yup. Especially in the breeding ground for late May and early June storms:



Hey I could wax poetic about the snow on the baseball diamond that had to be brushed away to play the game last night or I could discuss twister possibilities in Texas, but that's not why I am here today.

Today, this morning, I am here to point out to y'all that.............things are going to heat up fast this coming Hurricane Season of 2013 and I do believe the Gulf Coast from say Mobile Bay to the Big Bend of Florida could easily see an early storm. For that matter... I wouldn't rule out the area from Texas to Mobile. Too many cold fronts that will fall apart down there and too many west bound waves with a trace of energy moving west low down into the Caribbean hooking up with a continual heat source down south of Cuba that will breed an early "A" storm.

ALMA 1966



From Wikipedia: "During June 1966, low atmospheric pressure stretched across the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico—a pattern that is conducive for tropical cyclogenesis. During the first few days of the month, a dissipating trough extended from the southeastern United States into the western Caribbean. A mid-level circulation developed along the trough near Cabo Gracias a Dios on June 3. By the next day, the circulation had reached the surface,^[1] which marked the development of a tropical depression over eastern Nicaragua. On June 5, the depression crossed Honduras and emerged into the western Caribbean, moving north-northeastward through an area of warm sea surface temperatures. It had a good cyclonic circulation, convection, and moisture content, but most significantly, a passing trough to the north provided the depression with favorable outflow.^[1][2] On June 6, the depression rapidly intensified into Tropical Storm and later Hurricane Alma.^[2] This made it the earliest hurricane in the basin since Hurricane Able in 1951.^[3]"

Does that sound familiar?



2005:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_(2005)



"Early in the season — nearly two months earlier than the first storm formation in 2004 — a low-pressure area formed and persisted north of Honduras. Despite significant shear, the low managed to become Tropical Depression One on June 8 just north of Honduras.^[1] The depression began to head north towards western Cuba that day, but as it was a very large and poorly organized system under the influence of heavy shear, the official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center emphasized that the route the storm would take was uncertain.^[2] Despite this uncertainty, the official forecasts were highly accurate in predicting the storm's track."



familiar??

1968 Abby...

Reason it formed? Warm Water.
Reason it moved north... pulled up, sucked up by a late season cold front.



And, let us never forget the mixed up, messy track of Alice in 1953! Late May/Early June Storm:



One of the problems with years like this, when the weather is a bit bi-polar and we have a lot of extremes on the map... they somehow provide the spark for these early June systems in years that tend to be active as this season has already been predicted to be..

Note 2005 and was originally predicated to be "slightly above average" and then was upgraded to "very active" and in retrospect was VERY,  VERY ACTIVE.  Years like 2005 don't get repeated often, but it has been mentioned by many as an analog year for 2013!

Some statistics on June storms written a few years back, but still very relevant by the very smart and wonderful Ken Kaye at the Sun Sentinel ..

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/blog/2010/05/june_hurricane_is_possible_but.html

So, keep watching the tropics and for now be aware we really aren't "sure" which way the wind blows with La Nina or El Nino or if it will be a "Neutral" year. This past winter we had relatively warm weather across most of the US with very little snow. And, then ...something happened. The Switch got flipped and starting in Early February Winter Went Wild and hasn't let go so far..  

The ground hog came out, looked around...went inside and turned the "winter switch" on and hasn't been seen since...

Winter is waning, but the cold fronts that will continue to come and weaken will lay draped across the Gulf of Mexico down into the Carib where the water is warm and they could provide just the vitamins this hurricane season needs to produce some shocking scenarios for the Gulf Coast States!

Besos Bobbi

Ps

A link for anyone looking for an interesting angle on weather and geology while waiting for the real deal to begin..

http://www.nature.com/news/hurricane-may-have-triggered-earthquake-aftershocks-1.12839