Could A Sub--Tropical Storm Develop Near Florida Next Week?
Would, could... should? Is it possible? Yeah, it's possible. Will it develop? Don't know, but it's possible and the set up might support development. Models show "something" developing as it moves over Florida from the Gulf and meets up with a tropical energy that has been lingering there and develops into an official Low off the East Coast of Florida. Then.......it moves to the "right" either out to sea or up along the coast. If it develops and if it moves NE towards the Cape then it would wind up tight off the coast of North Carolina.
A whole lot of "IFS" if you ask me, then again if you had those "IFS" you would run right out to the local grocery story and buy up the lotto tickets real fast..
Funny how odds work like that. Low, barely there chance in the tropics of development and everyone thinks it's a long shot. If you were giving a 5% chance of winning the local lotto..you'd buy more than a just $1 ticket.
The Atlantic has been fun to watch this past week, keep watching it for something to possibly happen next week.
The Mumbo Jumbo out of NWS Melbourne is below, and by the way...their mumbo jumbo tropical style is one of the best to watch:
"TUE-FRI...MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET AND
PERHAPS UNSETTLED. AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM H50 TROUGH WILL KICK ITS POS TILT PREDECESSOR SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX AND FL. SOME BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE AS THE RESULTANT PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH (CUTOFF LOW?) THAT MOVES OVERHEAD. THE 26/00Z GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES COMPARED TO THE NEW ECM. THE LATTER`S SOLUTION IS OBVIOUSLY MUCH MORE OMINOUS FOR THE FL EAST COAST...AS IT SHOWS A H50 CUTOFF OVHD ABOUT 60M DEEPER...ALONG WITH A MUCH STRONGER (SUB-1000MB) SURFACE LOW CENTER WHICH DROPS SSE RIGHT ALONG THE FL EAST COAST. THIS SOLN WOULD BATTER THE NE FL COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRETY OF THE FL ATLC COAST WITH VERY STRONG N-NE FLOW FRI THROUGH SAT. ESPECIALLY WORRISOME IS THE FACT THAT THE ECM HAS SHOWN A GENERAL SOLUTION OF STRONGER SRN STREAM ENERGY (ALBEIT NOT QUITE TO THIS EXTENT) FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW...AND IT USUALLY PERFORMS QUITE WELL OVER THE CONUS. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WE`LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS CONTINUED INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THU"
BOBBI'S BOTTOM LINE:
Keep watching, only time will tell ...
but it's possible, very possible. Either way it's gonna be real wet
and read windy early next week off the East Coast of Florida
if the NWS forecast verifies!
In other news... the same strong frontal system that may ultimately tango with the tropical moisture could seriously bring snow to a large swath of the country. Again, late season cold fronts with high pressure to the north and warm water in the Tropics with inflow from the south rushing in to meet a vacuum of sorts often causes early season, semi, quasi.. sort of sub-tropical storms.
Either way the front moving across the country will keep weather watchers and chasers busy this coming week!
Enjoy the images .... keep watching the Draft and let's hope the Dolphins finally learned how to do a NFL Draft ;)
Ps...for now... it's safe to go to the beach ;)