Hurricane Sandy & the Cold Front.. All About Timing
5 Day Cone for Hurricane Sandy at 11 PM.
Look at that cone... the part about the cone that gets me is how far INLAND this storm goes.
The cone goes all the way to the Great Lakes. Remember the NRL chart several days ago that had all of Pennsylvania in it's path? That is why I love the Navy Site aka NRL site. You can almost always rely on it.
With any storm that travels this far inland you have INLAND FLOODING and this will be no exception.
Some links are posted below for you to read and remember. Especially tragic was the death of an elderly woman, a Holocaust survivor, who was in a bungalow in the Mountains on vacation in Upstate NY when it was swept away with her in it.
Flooding in Vermont which is still cleaning up in some areas. Far inland from where Hurricane Irene came ashore by Coney Island.
Inland Flooding is often a problem with a Hurricane. Agnes in 1972, a July storm not an October storm, caused horrible floods, a high death toll and an incredible early satellite image showing us the size of the storm.
That is the signature of a storm that will be remembered for years to come.
Hurricane Sandy will not be Hurricane Agnes, nor will it be Hurricane Irene and not the Perfect Storm.
Hurricane Sandy will be Hurricane Sandy... that is the bottom line...
And, we won't know for a day or so when the cold front begins to move faster and progress towards the coast to see where the exact point of phasing between Hurricane Sandy and the Front actually happens. At that point, the 3 Day Cone will be fine tuned and more precise with an exact landfall... hopefully.
What this means is that Sandy will feel the tug from the front and move towards the front, at some point they fuse together into one larger entity and she transforms into a different type of storm than one purely tropical.
Look at Sandy now... she is getting larger, as the excellent discussion at 11 explains... growing in size and transforming even now..
Who will feel her wrath??
As of 11 PM Thursday evening that area extends to ...Indiana???
Not an easy job for the NHC or the NWS.
When will we know more??
It's all a matter of timing.
With respect to all the discussion on The Perfect Storm here are some links I found online.
Watch the Water Vapor Loop in the background to get an idea of how HUGE the Perfect Storm was after it barely swallowed up Hurricane Grace.
Here is an image from that clip but if you compare that to the signature of Agnes and the forecast for Sandy and the large swath from the NRL ... Sandy might look a lot like this AFTER it merges with the strong front.
Only time will tell...
That is what happens when a Hurricane transitions and gets swallowed up by another system and well.. it's not so much Perfect as rare..
Happens, will happen again but not exactly the same way...
If a picture says a thousand words ... than why do we bother writing long posts. This says a lot!
I've been asked a lot on how safe it will be to go to the beach on Sunday... yes, no .. maybe?
We will know more tomorrow...
As for the Outer Banks... if the storm turns faster to the west and further to the south the impact on the Outer Banks will be much larger and faster. It's going to be a windy, messy day on Sunday most likely starting on Saturday so... if you have plans to be there, double check with local authorities what roads are or aren't open. There is no way to say the exact timing now or the damage that will be seen. It depends on if the storm comes in fast, gets wider as expected with the wind field expanding or gets close enough for the tides to be affected causing flooding. If the storm stays further out at sea and goes for the NYC scenario then it will be a beautiful, blustery day with high surf and wild wind and they will get off "lucky" not to have any real damage.
Magic 8 Ball says: Try Again Later.
Tomorrow morning by 11 AM the NHC will have to put up advisories and we will know more.
Will New York City really get this storm directly or other wise?
Unfortunately ...the outlook is not so good for those in the path of Sandy because this is not hype, it's historic ..however... things can change as they often do so keep watching.
Heed your local warnings..
Pay attention to the NHC and anyone, including me, that you respect and trust regarding Tropical Weather.
Go to www.weather.gov and put your zip code in for info.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/260311.shtml <-- Discussion from NHC
Check out the loops and radar images on www.spaghettimodels.com
Lastly, the wind probs are going to get historic at some point as they keep adding in new cities. Oddly, they put up wind probabilities for Charlotte, NC which is far inland to the south which makes me wonder a bit why.
Then again local news said that it will get windy in NC on Saturday and stay windy for days... with gusts expected in Raleigh up to 30 mph.. and that can change depending on when Sandy makes that turn west. IF Sandy does it earlier.. our chances of stronger weather go up.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
Ps... look at her out there... wow and look at that big swirl to her NE in the North Atlantic, the front suddenly showed up ... pre-frontal trough out ahead of the front.. this IS coming together..possibly sooner rather than later............. tomorrow morning people on the beach in NC will look out at sunrise and up in the sky will be the outflow from Hurricane Sandy. And, again prayers for people affected in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba... people are still missing and many have died. This storm is already one for the history books!