Hunker Down & Stay Safe in South Florida.. Isaac slowly intensifying

A strange looking tropical storm. Most of the weather from 11AM to 6 PM on the clock with a tail that extends down south of Cuba ... it's raining still over Haiti.. If it was out in the middle of the ocean and had not been a named storm they would have downgraded it I think for a while. But, proximity to land is the name of the game and models indicate it will soon become a strong hurricane in the Northern Gulf so we give it more weight than it possibly deserves right now.

Not to say there isn't weather... rain...wind...but nothing much to really write home about. If not for the models and memories of other storms that rapidly intensified this would be the type of storm that most Miami kids pray for...wait for... enjoy as a fun day at the beach watching the waves and telling stories about for years to come. Of course, storms like this can be underestimated and have inherent dangers ...such as kids going kite surfing on Collins and slamming into a condo when a stray gust of wind grabs them.

http://www2.wkrg.com/news/2008/aug/18/caught_on_tape_wind_blows_kite_surfer_into_buildin-ar-2135274/



You thought I was making this up?

Tropical Storm Fay didn't look so dangerous, had she been a respectable Category 2 storm this would not have happened. There would have been more damage, but these odd incidents occur when kids and their parents underestimate a Tropical Storm...

Nope. Life is stranger than fiction at times and stories like these abound during weak tropical storms.

In the Florida Keys they are preparing for Isaac as either a Tropical Storm or a weak Hurricane. Better to err on the side of caution and party afterwards if he never intensifies.

Nice image from the NWS at Key West.

Storm flags flying over Key West today next to the Conch Republic Flags.

Discussion out of the NWS shows they are taking this seriously:

Synopsis...TROPICAL STORM ISSAC AT 5 AM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST AND MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. PREPARATIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF ISSAC SHOULD BE COMPLETE...AND LIVE ABOARD RESIDENTS SHOULD ALREADY BE IN A SHELTER ON DRY LAND. 

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Today: Tropical storm conditions, with hurricane conditions possible. N wind 25 to 35 kt, with gusts as high as 45 kt. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Seas 1 ft or less.

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. WSW wind 45 to 65 kt becoming S. Winds could gust as high as 75 kt. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Seas 1 ft or less.

Monday: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. S wind 25 to 30 kt. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Seas 1 ft or less.

Monday Night: S wind 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Seas 1 ft or less.


Discussion is pretty specific there... Today through Monday... tropical storm conditions with possible hurricane conditions.  What I would give to be in Key West right now, you cannot imagine. And, before you go thinking I am a danger seeker like the kite surfer... know that in a mild storm Key West is one of the safest places to be. Most of the island has a higher elevation than many parts of Miami, there is less of an issue of storm surge and flooding though the area down by the infamous buoy on Whitehead Street does flood a bit. For the most part Old Town around Truman Avenue is high and dry and safe. People help each other. Electric comes back on much faster than most places and it's a great place to feel the effects of tropical weather... people for the most part are kind in Key West; friendly, helpful, easy going, there for one another. And, no I am not talking about Duval Street which is a great, wonderful tourist trap, but am talking about the real old timers who went to Key West High or St. Marys and know each or any Conch roots..

Meanwhile in Miami...if you want to feel like you are there.... watch http://www.hurricanecity.tv/
and feel like you are there... all the information you need.

These are strong cells moving fast that hit and are gone in minutes, but can bring winds sustained briefly of 50 mph... not gusts, real wind, gusts to 80 mph.  The outer bands are approaching now, and these bands and areas of Tropical Storm Force wind will continue all day as Miami is on the "dirty side" of the storm where the real weather is currently.

Loop: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

If you are inside these circles... you WILL get Tropical Storm Force Conditions at some time today:



Close up of the island chain to see which island is which:

I cannot under estimate this Miami is going to be getting TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS all day. I say this because people have told me "oh the storm is going to Key West" or "isn't the storm going to Key West?"  A little while ago someone complained to me that someone did not show up for work today. I was like.. "hello, there is a tropical storm outside why would you think they would show up for a part time job?"  No words...

Hunker down, stay safe, have fun while you are staying safe and the sun will come out tomorrow.

Note the 8AM

ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


Note he is 220 KM ESE of Key West and he is moving WNW at 20 MPH forward speed. Only time will tell if he takes a bobble east of west and misses Key West which is only 3 miles narrow by 7 miles wide.

There are a plethora of links, images and information on www.spaghettimodels.com and great discussion on www.flhurricanecom.com and www.canetalk.com.

Miami Weather today:

• Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. East wind 34 to 44 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
• TonightTropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 83. Southeast wind 31 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

More later as Isaac develops or more clarification comes in as to where exactly he will cross the Florida Keys... AGAIN when we say "cross" we mean his "center" but in reality he doesn't have much of a "center" he has a BIG AREA OF WEATHER...  if it's not raining hard in your back yard don't think it's not coming and go out for a long walk, because you can hit hard by Tropical Storm force winds while you are out walking.

Besos Bobbi

Ps we will deal with where he is going and what condition he will be in AFTER he passes the Florida Keys and South Florida area...  and Naples/St. Pete/Tampa area.. also there may be rain wrapped tornadoes in some of these bands that hit suddenly...stay alert!